ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Shintaro Mochizuki #117Japan0Pavel Kotov #250Russia2

Sets 6-7 · 1-6Tue 15 Sept 2026, 07:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–267%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageShintaro Mochizuki · 133 places

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

Reached a career-high No. 92 on November 10, 2025 after moving into the Top 100 that autumn. Former world No. 1 junior.

Current ranking: #117
Peak ranking: #92 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Pavel Kotov

Russia

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 50 in June 2024. The available profile records identify him as a right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #250
Peak ranking: #50 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 04:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Kotov's superior hard-court serve and point-winning metrics give him a structural edge over Mochizuki's weaker recent form.

Back Kotov to win at 2.10, with a predicted probability of 58% versus the implied 47.6%. Expect a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.

Context

Kotov, ranked 250, has a career hard-court win rate of 59% and has been more consistent on this surface recently.
Kotov's recent hard-court record of 5-3 in his last 8 matches is stronger than Mochizuki's 1-3 in his last 4 on hard courts. Mochizuki's losses include a straight-set defeat to world No. 207 Francesco Passaro, suggesting vulnerability against lower-ranked players. However, Kotov's wins have come mostly against opponents ranked outside the top 150, so the edge is modest.
- Kotov's last 8 hard-court matches: 5 wins, 3 losses (62.5% win rate).
- Mochizuki's last 4 hard-court matches: 1 win, 3 losses, including a 6-4 6-2 loss to No. 207 Passaro.
- Kotov's recent hard-court wins include victories over No. 183 Galarneau and No. 204 Ymer.
Mochizuki, ranked 117, has a career first-serve percentage of 56% and has struggled with double faults.
In his last 15 matches, Mochizuki has landed only 48.1% of first serves and averaged 5.6 double faults per match. This could allow Kotov, who converts 38.2% of break points, to apply pressure on return. However, Mochizuki's first-serve points won is 68.6%, so when he does get the first serve in, he is effective.
- Mochizuki's last 15: first serve in 48.1%, double faults per match 5.6.
- Kotov's last 15: break points converted 38.2%.
- Mochizuki's first-serve points won: 68.6%.
Kotov has had two retirements in the last five months, one on clay in June and one on hard in April.
Kotov retired against Leo Raquillet in June and against Leandro Riedi in April, but he has since played four matches in the current tournament without any reported physical problems. This suggests the retirements were isolated incidents rather than an ongoing issue, so fitness is unlikely to be a major factor in this match.
- Kotov retired vs. Raquillet on 2026-06-17 (clay).
- Kotov retired vs. Riedi on 2026-04-16 (hard).
- Kotov has played 4 matches in the current tournament (Sep 8-12) without retirement.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Kotov's superior recent hard-court serve and point-winning metrics give him a structural edge over Mochizuki's weaker recent hard-court form.
- Kotov last 15 on hard: 5-3 record, 55% sets won, 52.5% games won
- Mochizuki last 15 on hard: 7-7 record, 45.7% sets won, 46.9% games won
- Kotov first serve points won on hard: 75.4% vs Mochizuki 68%
- Kotov ranking 250 but strong recent hard form; Mochizuki ranking 117 but weaker recent hard stats
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPavel KotovEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive recent form and similar games won percentages suggest a close match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.
- Mochizuki last 15 average duration: 108.6 minutes
- Kotov last 15 average duration: 115.2 minutes
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 46-50%
- Recent hard matches for both often go to 20+ games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The balanced return stats and recent set scores indicate a competitive first set likely to go over 9.5 games.
- Mochizuki recent hard matches average 9.8 games per set
- Kotov recent hard matches average 9.6 games per set
- Both players have similar return points won percentages around 38-42%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's strong first-serve performance on hard courts should give him an early advantage in set one.
- Kotov first serve points won on hard: 75.4%
- Mochizuki first serve in on hard: 47.6%
- Kotov has won first set in 5 of last 8 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPavel KotovEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mochizuki's high double fault rate on hard courts is likely to push the combined total over 7.5.
- Mochizuki double faults per match on hard: 5.8
- Kotov double faults per match on hard: 2.4
- Combined average double faults per match: 8.2
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's high ace rate on hard courts combined with Mochizuki's modest ace count should push total aces over 7.5.
- Kotov aces per match on hard: 6.0
- Mochizuki aces per match on hard: 2.4
- Combined average aces per match: 8.4
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Shintaro Mochizuki

7W 8L

6-1 6-4 7-5#18Jakub Mensik

6-4 6-2#207Francesco Passaro

6-4 6-1#216Braden Shick

7-6(5) 6-4#322Daniel Milavsky

7-5 4-6 6-3#150Soon-Woo Kwon

6-2 2-6 6-3#253Jeff Wolf

6-4 6-3#63Fabian Marozsan

1-6 7-6(5) 6-3#123Dane Sweeny

6-3 6-2#255Hayato Matsuoka

2-6 6-2 6-4#237Charles Broom

6-0 6-3#218Liam Draxl

6-4 7-6(4)#299Johannus Monday

6-2 2-6 6-4#492Duncan Chan

6-3 4-6 6-1#353Philip Sekulic

6-3 7-6(0) 6-3#1Jannik Sinner

Pavel Kotov

7W 8L

6-3 7-5#442Marat Sharipov (RUS)3-6 6-1 6-1#183Alexis Galarneau

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#365Jake Delaney

3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#204Elias Ymer

6-4 6-4#335Daniel Elahi Galan

7-5 ret.#662Leo Raquillet

6-7(3) 6-3 6-0#707Franco Ribero

6-7(7) 6-4 6-2#83Marco Trungelliti

6-2 6-1#213Guy Den Ouden

1-6 6-1 6-2#230Cezar Cretu

6-1 3-6 6-4#158Gauthier Onclin

1-6 6-2 6-3#336Mikhail Kukushkin

7-6(7) 5-2 ret.#131Leandro Riedi

6-1 2-0 ret.#248Yi Zhou

4-6 6-3 6-4#196Harry Wendelken

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SMShintaro MochizukiMochizuki

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Pavel KotovKotovPK

Pavel Kotov carries the stronger recent form — Shintaro Mochizuki's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In48.1%+14.6pp62.7%

1st Serve Won68.6%—69.1%

2nd Serve Won43.9%+5.8pp49.7%

Aces / Match2.5+2.24.7

Double Faults / Match5.63.3 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.0%+2.3pp38.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.5%+5.3pp38.2%

Break Pts Saved54.9%+4.3pp59.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.5%+1.6pp50.1%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

48.1%1st Serve In+14.6pp62.7%

68.6%1st Serve Won—69.1%

43.9%2nd Serve Won+5.8pp49.7%

2.5Aces / Match+2.24.7

5.6Double Faults / Match3.3 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

41.0%Return Pts Won+2.3pp38.7%

Pressure · 1–1

43.5%Break Pts Converted+5.3pp38.2%

54.9%Break Pts Saved+4.3pp59.2%

Points · 0–1

48.5%Total Pts Won+1.6pp50.1%