PolandSzczecin - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Ivan Gakhov #476Russia1Zdenek Kolar #156Czechia2

Sets 6-4 · 2-6 · 2-6Tue 15 Sept 2026, 12:20 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageZdenek Kolar · 320 places

Ivan Gakhov

Russia

His career-high singles ranking is No. 142, achieved on 19 June 2023. Clay accounts for the majority of his recorded career singles matches.

Current ranking: #476
Peak ranking: #142 · 2023
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 191 cm

Zdenek Kolar

Czechia

Czech right-hander, age 29, with a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 111 on 13 June 2022. His recent official ITF activity shows substantially more clay than hard-court matches in 2026.

Current ranking: #156
Peak ranking: #111 · 2022
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 22:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Kolar's ranking and H2H edge make him the likely winner, but his poor recent form and Gakhov's competitiveness suggest value on Gakhov +3.5 games and over 21.5 total games.

The match is expected to be close, with a good chance of a tiebreak and a deciding set.

Context

Kolar, 29, is ranked 175 and has a career clay win percentage of 56%. Gakhov, 29, is ranked 453 and has a career clay win percentage of 60%.
Kolar's recent clay record is 5-8, but his wins include victories over players ranked 263 and 407. Gakhov's 7-8 clay record has come mostly against unranked or lower-ranked opponents. This suggests Kolar's form may be more battle-tested, though the sample sizes are small.
- Kolar's last 13 clay matches: 5 wins, 8 losses (38.5% win rate).
- Gakhov's last 15 clay matches: 7 wins, 8 losses (46.7% win rate).
- Kolar's recent clay wins include opponents ranked 263 and 407; Gakhov's wins are mostly against unranked players.
Kolar and Gakhov have met twice, with Kolar winning both matches in straight sets.
The most recent meeting was on clay in 2023, where Kolar won 6-3 6-4. This gives Kolar a psychological edge, though the matches are several years old and both players have changed since then.
- 2023 clay match: Kolar won 6-3 6-4.
- 2019 indoor hard match: Kolar won 6-1 7-6(5).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Zdenek Kolar

1.30fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Kolar's superior ranking and H2H dominance give him a moderate edge, but the odds imply a much higher probability than the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Kolar's superior ranking, H2H dominance, and stronger recent opposition give him a moderate edge despite Gakhov's slightly better recent form.
- Kolar leads H2H 2-0, including a 6-3 6-4 clay win in 2023.
- Kolar's last-15 clay record is 5-8 (38.5%), but he has faced stronger opponents (avg ranking ~250) than Gakhov's recent opposition.
- Gakhov's last-15 overall record is 7-8 (46.7%), with a 50.1% games won rate.
- Kolar's career clay win percentage is 56% vs Gakhov's 60%, but Kolar's current ranking (175) is much higher than Gakhov's (453).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonZdenek KolarEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, and clay-court rallies should push the total over 21.5 games.
- Gakhov's last-15 matches average 24.3 games per match (365 games / 15 matches).
- Kolar's last-15 matches average 21.3 games per match (320 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have played several three-set matches recently: Gakhov 7 of 15, Kolar 5 of 15.
- H2H matches were 15 and 14 games, but those were on faster surfaces and years ago.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gakhov's ability to stay competitive in games, especially on clay, makes him likely to cover a +3.5 game handicap.
- Gakhov's last-15 games won rate is 50.1%, indicating he keeps matches close.
- Kolar's last-15 games won rate is 46.6%, suggesting he does not dominate opponents.
- In H2H, Kolar won by margins of 5 and 6 games, but those were on faster surfaces.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonIvan Gakhov +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players' serve and return stats suggesting a close opener.
- Gakhov's last-15 first sets average 9.7 games (based on parsed sets).
- Kolar's last-15 first sets average 9.3 games.
- Both players have had multiple first sets decided by 7-5 or 7-6 in recent matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been similarly tight, and the loser of the first set often raises their level to extend the match.
- Gakhov's second sets in last 15 average 9.5 games.
- Kolar's second sets in last 15 average 9.1 games.
- Both players have shown the ability to bounce back after losing the first set, leading to longer second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of this matchup and both players' willingness to battle suggests a decent chance of a deciding set.
- Gakhov has played 7 three-set matches in his last 15 (47%).
- Kolar has played 5 three-set matches in his last 15 (33%).
- Both players have a deciding-set win rate above 50% career (Gakhov 58%, Kolar 53%).
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kolar's H2H pattern of starting strong and his higher ranking support a slight first-set edge, though recent form is mixed.
- Kolar won the first set in both H2H meetings.
- Gakhov's first-set win rate in last 15 is not directly available, but his overall first-set conversion is 87% career.
- Kolar's first-serve points won on clay in last 13 matches is 63.6%, slightly below Gakhov's 67.7% overall.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostZdenek KolarEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gakhov's higher ace rate and the potential for a longer match push the total aces over 6.5.
- Gakhov averages 4.4 aces per match in last 15.
- Kolar averages 1.8 aces per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 6.2 aces per match, but Gakhov's lefty serve can produce more on clay.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The closeness of the matchup and both players' tendency to play tight sets make a tiebreak likely.
- Gakhov has played 5 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Kolar has played 3 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 50% career.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively high double fault rates, and a longer match would likely exceed 7.5 total double faults.
- Gakhov averages 4.3 double faults per match in last 15.
- Kolar averages 3.6 double faults per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 7.9 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

0-2 (2 meetings)

L6-3 6-4Ivan Gakhov#453vZdenek Kolar#175Feb 21, 2023

L6-1 7-6(5)Ivan Gakhov#453vZdenek Kolar#175Jul 18, 2019

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Ivan Gakhov

7W 8L

6-2 1-6 6-2#342Dali Blanch 6-3 6-2—Oliwier Sterniczuk

4-6 6-3 6-2#470Oleg Prihodko

7-6(3) 6-4#496Alexander Ritschard

6-4 6-0—Samuel De Felipe Garcia

2-6 7-6(8) 7-5#627Yanaki Milev

6-2 4-6 7-6(4)—Enrique Carrascosa Diaz

7-6(3) 6-4#667Ignacio Parisca

6-3 6-4—Madhwin Kamath

6-7(2) 6-4 6-4#280Thiago Moura Monteiro

7-5 7-6(4)#687Nikolai Barsukov

6-3 3-6 6-2#779Emilien Demanet

6-3 7-6(7)—Ludvig Fredrik Hede

7-6(4) 3-6 6-1#898Gijs Brouwer

7-5 4-2 ret.#558Jelle Sels

Zdenek Kolar

5W 10L

6-7(2) 7-5 7-5#235Alex Barrena

6-2 6-4#263Martin Krumich

6-3 7-5#407Olle Wallin

6-1 6-1#318Oriol Roca Batalla

6-1 6-4#162Borna Gojo

6-4 6-4#224Raul Brancaccio

6-2 4-6 6-3#186Jan Kumstat

6-3 6-2#198Thiago Seyboth Wild

4-6 6-3 6-4#45Juan Manuel Cerundolo

6-4 6-3#160Taro Daniel

7-5 6-0#505Stefan Palosi

6-3 6-3#145Tom Gentzsch

4-6 6-4 6-3#181Federico Cina

6-4 6-4#591Lukas Pokorny

6-3 6-1#899Jason Jung

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

IGIvan GakhovGakhov

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Zdenek KolarKolarZK

Ivan Gakhov carries the stronger recent form — Zdenek Kolar's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In53.6%+7.4pp61.0%

1st Serve Won67.7%+5.1pp62.6%

2nd Serve Won47.7%+1.8pp49.5%

Aces / Match4.4+2.61.8

Double Faults / Match4.30.7 fewer3.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.3%+1.8pp39.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted48.6%+9.8pp38.8%

Break Pts Saved60.2%+6.9pp53.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won49.9%+1.5pp48.4%

Serve · 2–3

53.6%1st Serve In+7.4pp61.0%

67.7%1st Serve Won+5.1pp62.6%

47.7%2nd Serve Won+1.8pp49.5%

4.4Aces / Match+2.61.8

4.3Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer3.6

Return · 1–0

41.3%Return Pts Won+1.8pp39.5%

Pressure · 2–0

48.6%Break Pts Converted+9.8pp38.8%

60.2%Break Pts Saved+6.9pp53.3%

Points · 1–0

49.9%Total Pts Won+1.5pp48.4%