PolandSzczecin - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Dali Blanch #313United States1Ivan Gakhov #476Russia2

Sets 2-6 · 6-1 · 2-6Mon 14 Sept 2026, 10:50 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions1–517%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDali Blanch · 163 places

Dali Blanch

United States

American right-hander, age 23, with clay listed as his preferred surface. Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 284 in June 2026.

Current ranking: #313
Peak ranking: #284 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Ivan Gakhov

Russia

His career-high singles ranking is No. 142, achieved on 19 June 2023. Clay accounts for the majority of his recorded career singles matches.

Current ranking: #476
Peak ranking: #142 · 2023
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 22:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Dali Blanch's superior 2026 clay record (26-14 vs 8-11) and slightly better recent metrics give him a modest edge over Ivan Gakhov.

The match winner market offers no value on Blanch at 1.55, but the total games over 21.5 is a solid lean given both players' high match averages. Expect a competitive match with aces and double faults playing a key role.

Context

Blanch, 342nd, and Gakhov, 476th, are both clay-court regulars at Challenger level. Blanch is right-handed with a two-handed backhand; Gakhov is left-handed and has a much longer career clay record.
Over the last 15 matches, Blanch has a 46.7% win rate and Gakhov also has 46.7%. On clay, Blanch wins 51.1% of total points and Gakhov 49.9%, a small gap that is not enough to separate them. Their serve and return numbers are also close, so this match is likely to be decided by execution on the day rather than a clear form advantage.
- Blanch last 15 overall record: 7-8 (46.7%); Gakhov last 15 overall record: 7-8 (46.7%).
- Blanch clay total points won: 51.1%; Gakhov clay total points won: 49.9%.
- Blanch clay return points won: 40.5%; Gakhov clay return points won: 41.7%.
Gakhov, 30, has a career clay win percentage of 60.3% and often plays long baseline rallies. Blanch, 23, has played fewer tour-level matches and tends to finish points faster.
In his last 15 matches, Gakhov's average duration is 123.8 minutes, compared to Blanch's 100.6 minutes. Gakhov also had a retirement in April and several three-set battles in August, suggesting he may be more fatigued. If this match goes to a third set, Blanch could have a physical edge.
- Gakhov average match duration last 15: 123.8 minutes; Blanch: 100.6 minutes.
- Gakhov retired in a match on 2026-04-22 against Jelle Sels.
- Gakhov played three-set matches on 2026-08-27, 2026-08-26, and 2026-08-02.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Dali Blanch

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Blanch's stronger 2026 clay record and slightly better recent clay metrics give him a modest edge on this surface.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Blanch's stronger 2026 clay record and slightly better recent clay metrics give him a modest edge on this surface.
- Dali Blanch has a 26-14 clay record in 2026, while Ivan Gakhov is 8-11 on clay in 2026.
- Blanch's last 15 clay matches show 52.8% games won and 51.1% total points won; Gakhov's clay last 15 show 50.4% games won and 49.9% total points won.
- Blanch's recent form includes a 6-2 6-0 win in his last match; Gakhov won 6-3 6-2 in his last match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDali BlanchEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match averages exceed 21.5 games, and their similar level suggests a competitive contest.
- Blanch's last 15 matches average 23.2 games per match (348 games / 15 matches).
- Gakhov's last 15 matches average 24.2 games per match (363 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have similar games-won percentages around 50%, indicating competitive matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The players' serve effectiveness and recent close first sets make a longer opening set likely.
- Blanch's recent first sets have often been close, with several 7-5 or 7-6 scores.
- Gakhov's recent first sets include 7-6, 6-4, and 6-3 scores.
- Both players have first-serve points won around 70%, which can lead to longer sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Blanch's better recent clay set-winning percentage suggests a slight advantage in the opening set.
- Blanch has a 79% first-set win conversion rate in his career; Gakhov has 87%.
- Blanch's last 15 clay matches show 53.3% sets won; Gakhov's show 47.2% sets won.
- Both players have similar recent form, but Blanch's clay surface edge is slightly higher.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDali BlanchEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages of both players exceed the over line, though variance is high.
- Blanch averages 5.7 aces per match in his last 15 matches (80 aces / 14 matches).
- Gakhov averages 4.5 aces per match in his last 15 matches (67 aces / 15 matches).
- Combined average is 10.2 aces per match, above the 8.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively high double fault rates, making the over a reasonable lean.
- Blanch averages 4.0 double faults per match in his last 15 matches (56 DF / 14 matches).
- Gakhov averages 4.3 double faults per match in his last 15 matches (64 DF / 15 matches).
- Combined average is 8.3 double faults per match, slightly above the 7.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Dali Blanch

7W 8L

6-2 6-0—Jan Chlodnicki

6-3 3-6 6-1#223Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-2#465Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-3 3-6 7-5#243Hugo Grenier

6-4 6-2#458Rudolf Molleker

6-4 7-6(3)#374Tommaso Compagnucci

6-2 6-2—Samuel Zannoni

6-7(3) 7-5 6-4#145Tom Gentzsch

7-5 3-6 7-6(3)—Mickael Kaouk

6-3 6-3#283Sandro Kopp

6-2 6-3#570Lorenzo Angelini

6-4 6-2#800Dinko Dinev

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#192David Jorda Sanchis

6-2 6-2#208Daniel Rincon

7-5 6-2#177Max Alcala Gurri

Ivan Gakhov

7W 8L

6-3 6-2—Oliwier Sterniczuk

4-6 6-3 6-2#411Oleg Prihodko

7-6(3) 6-4#638Alexander Ritschard

6-4 6-0—Samuel De Felipe Garcia

2-6 7-6(8) 7-5#866Yanaki Milev

6-2 4-6 7-6(4)—Enrique Carrascosa Diaz

7-6(3) 6-4#721Ignacio Parisca

6-3 6-4—Madhwin Kamath

6-7(2) 6-4 6-4#280Thiago Moura Monteiro

7-5 7-6(4)#724Nikolai Barsukov

6-3 3-6 6-2#738Emilien Demanet

6-3 7-6(7)—Ludvig Fredrik Hede

7-6(4) 3-6 6-1#898Gijs Brouwer

7-5 4-2 ret.#546Jelle Sels

6-3 7-5—Zangar Nurlanuly

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DBDali BlanchBlanch

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Ivan GakhovGakhovIG

Dali Blanch carries the stronger recent form — Ivan Gakhov's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1556.5%+3.5pp53.0%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1571.5%+4.9pp66.6%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1547.5%—48.2%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/155.7+1.24.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/154.00.3 fewer4.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1540.5%+1.2pp41.7%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1540.9%+6.9pp47.8%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1561.5%—60.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1550.7%+0.8pp49.9%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

56.5%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+3.5pp53.0%

71.5%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+4.9pp66.6%

47.5%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15—48.2%

5.7Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.24.5

4.0Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.3 fewer4.3

Return · 0–1

40.5%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.2pp41.7%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

40.9%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+6.9pp47.8%

61.5%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15—60.8%

Points · 1–0

50.7%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+0.8pp49.9%