ItalyBiella - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Gianluca Cadenasso #194Italy0Francesco Forti #357Italy2

Sets 1-6 · 5-7Tue 15 Sept 2026, 15:15 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–450%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGianluca Cadenasso · 163 places

Gianluca Cadenasso

Italy

Born 29 September 2004 in Genoa. His career-best singles ranking of No. 190 came in June 2026, and public player profiles list clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #194
Peak ranking: #190 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Francesco Forti

Italy

Italian right-hander whose career-high singles ranking was No. 303 in December 2023. His 2026 ITF activity listed a 26-10 clay record, compared with 7-3 on hard courts.

Current ranking: #357
Peak ranking: #303 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 04:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Francesco Forti holds the edge over Gianluca Cadenasso due to superior recent form, a stronger serve, and better clay-court stats.

Forti to win at 1.85 offers value, and over 21.5 total games is a solid secondary angle.

Context

Forti, 26, is ranked 367 and has built his career on clay, with 205 career wins on the surface. Cadenasso, 21, is ranked 194 but has struggled recently, winning only 6 of his last 14 clay matches.
Forti's 53.3% win rate in his last 15 matches on clay is better than Cadenasso's 42.9% over 14 matches. Forti also wins more first-serve points (69.3% vs 63.4%) and saves more break points (58% vs 50%), which could give him an edge in tight games.
- Forti's last 15 clay matches: 8 wins, 7 losses (53.3% win rate).
- Cadenasso's last 14 clay matches: 6 wins, 8 losses (42.9% win rate).
- Forti wins 69.3% of first-serve points vs Cadenasso's 63.4%.
- Forti saves 58% of break points vs Cadenasso's 50%.
Cadenasso has played 14 clay matches in the last 15, but his most recent clay outing ended in a retirement after losing the first set 6-2.
The retirement came against Daniel Merida Aguilar on June 1, and Cadenasso has not played a clay match since. If he is not fully fit, Forti could take advantage early, but the three-week gap may have allowed recovery.
- Cadenasso retired at 6-2 against Daniel Merida Aguilar on June 1, 2026.
- He has not played a clay match since that retirement.
- His only match after that was a grass-court loss on June 22.
Cadenasso is a clay-court specialist with 116 career wins on clay and 0 on grass.
His only grass match this year was a straight-set loss to Federico Cina. Returning to clay should help him, but his recent clay form has been inconsistent, so the surface advantage may not be enough.
- Cadenasso's 2026 grass record: 0 wins, 1 loss.
- Career surface wins: 116 on clay, 0 on grass.
- This match is on clay.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Forti's recent clay form and current momentum edge Cadenasso's slightly weaker recent results and fitness concerns.
- Forti last 15 on clay: 8-7 record, 51.2% games won, 50.6% total points won
- Cadenasso last 15 on clay: 6-8 record, 49.1% games won, 49.3% total points won
- Forti has won 3 of last 4 matches, including two straight-set wins this week
- Cadenasso has lost 3 of last 4 matches, with two retirements in last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFrancesco FortiEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Evenly matched players with similar games percentages often produce longer matches, pushing total games over 21.5.
- Cadenasso last 15 average total games per match: 20.1 (302 games / 15 matches)
- Forti last 15 average total games per match: 20.2 (303 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50%, suggesting competitive sets
- Cadenasso has played 3 three-set matches in last 15, Forti has played 2
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Close first sets are likely given both players' similar first-set game totals and competitive recent form.
- Cadenasso first set average games: 9.4 (141 games / 15 first sets)
- Forti first set average games: 9.5 (142 games / 15 first sets)
- Both players have first set win rates below 55%, indicating close opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Forti's slight edge in games won percentage and recent form supports a narrow handicap win.
- Forti games won percentage in last 15: 51.2%
- Cadenasso games won percentage in last 15: 48%
- Forti has won 3 of last 4 matches, Cadenasso has lost 3 of last 4
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFrancesco Forti -1.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Forti's stronger recent first-set performance and momentum make him a slight favorite to take the opener.
- Forti first set win rate in last 15: 8 of 15 matches (53.3%)
- Cadenasso first set win rate in last 15: 6 of 15 matches (40%)
- Forti has won first set in 3 of last 4 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFrancesco FortiEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double fault rates, making under 4.5 total double faults likely.
- Cadenasso averages 2.4 double faults per match in last 15
- Forti averages 1.9 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.3
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Forti's higher ace rate combined with Cadenasso's moderate ace output makes over 6.5 total aces plausible.
- Forti averages 4.3 aces per match in last 15
- Cadenasso averages 2.6 aces per match in last 15
- Combined average aces per match: 6.9
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Francesco Forti has struggled to convert win projections

Francesco Forti has fulfilled 2 of 6 win predictions, a 33% success rate. His average estimated probability was 64%, but expected fulfilled predictions were 3.8, indicating underperformance. All four missed predictions resulted in losses, with no draws or wins.

Recent evidence for Francesco Forti6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#779Federico Coria0-2#371Francesco Forti

BetBugsFrancesco Forti to win·65%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#779Federico Coria0-2#371Francesco Forti

Francesco Forti to win

65%probability

Francesco Forti won

Matched

27 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#274Juan Pablo Varillas2-1#371Francesco Forti

BetBugsFrancesco Forti to win·62%

Missed

27 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#274Juan Pablo Varillas2-1#371Francesco Forti

Francesco Forti to win

62%probability

Juan Pablo Varillas won

Missed

13 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#378Francesco Forti0-2#564Peter Makk

BetBugsFrancesco Forti to win·62%

Missed

13 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#378Francesco Forti0-2#564Peter Makk

Francesco Forti to win

62%probability

Peter Makk won

Missed

28 Jun·Milan - Italy

#379Francesco Forti1-2#635Fausto Tabacco

BetBugsFrancesco Forti to win·65%

Missed

28 Jun 2026

Milan - Italy

#379Francesco Forti1-2#635Fausto Tabacco

Francesco Forti to win

65%probability

Fausto Tabacco won

Missed

10 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#396Francesco Forti2-1#246Franco Agamenone

BetBugsFrancesco Forti to win·58%

Matched

10 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#396Francesco Forti2-1#246Franco Agamenone

Francesco Forti to win

58%probability

Francesco Forti won

Matched

Gianluca Cadenasso

6W 9L

6-3 6-2#181Federico Cina

6-2 ret.#39Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-7(5) 6-4 7-5#131Leandro Riedi

7-5 6-4#197Liam Broady

6-7(5) 6-4 6-0#42Thiago Agustin Tirante

1-6 6-1 6-0#36Matteo Arnaldi

6-4 5-7 6-3#100Jesper De Jong

7-5 6-1#95Mattia Bellucci

6-3 6-1#482Lorenzo Carboni

6-4 6-2#388Jacopo Vasami

2-6 6-1 6-2#235Alex Barrena

6-4 6-4#91Hugo Gaston

6-4 6-2#214Felix Gill

5-2 ret.#373Eduardo Ribeiro

7-6(5) 6-0#271Franco Roncadelli

Francesco Forti

8W 7L

7-5 7-6(1)#148Pedro Martinez Portero

6-3 6-4#643Federico Iannaccone

7-5 6-4—Niccolo Ciavarella

6-2 6-4#242Jay Clarke

7-5 6-7(4) ret.#419Benjamin Hassan

6-1 6-1#809Giorgio Ricca

7-5 2-1 ret.#671Andrea De Marchi

6-1 6-3#166Marco Cecchinato

3-6 6-2 6-4#893Michele Mecarelli

6-2 7-6(3)#82Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 6-2#897Federico Coria

6-4 3-6 7-6(5)#234Juan Pablo Varillas

6-1 6-4#837Federico Zeballos

6-1 6-1#509Peter Makk

6-1 7-6(3)—Pietro Pampanin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GCGianluca CadenassoCadenasso

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Francesco FortiFortiFF

Francesco Forti carries the stronger recent form — Gianluca Cadenasso's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In65.4%+3.9pp61.5%

1st Serve Won63.4%+5.9pp69.3%

2nd Serve Won47.8%+0.9pp48.7%

Aces / Match2.6+1.74.3

Double Faults / Match2.40.5 fewer1.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won39.5%—40.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.0%+4.8pp38.2%

Break Pts Saved49.5%+8.5pp58.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.8%+1.8pp50.6%

Serve · 1–4

65.4%1st Serve In+3.9pp61.5%

63.4%1st Serve Won+5.9pp69.3%

47.8%2nd Serve Won+0.9pp48.7%

2.6Aces / Match+1.74.3

2.4Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer1.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

39.5%Return Pts Won—40.1%

Pressure · 1–1

43.0%Break Pts Converted+4.8pp38.2%

49.5%Break Pts Saved+8.5pp58.0%

Points · 0–1

48.8%Total Pts Won+1.8pp50.6%