Federico Coria #779Argentina00 – 2Francesco Forti #371Italy2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.75

The read

Forti's superior recent clay form and serve efficiency, combined with Coria's poor 30.8% win rate in last 13 clay matches, give Forti a clear edge despite his heavy schedule.

• Forti last15 clay record: 9-6 (60%), Coria last15 clay record: 4-9 (30.8%)
• Forti last15 clay total points won: 50.9%, Coria: 46.7%
• Forti last15 clay first serve points won: 71%, Coria: 59.3%
• Forti 2026 clay season: 28-12, Coria: 4-8

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Both players tend to play tight first sets on clay, with a majority of recent first sets reaching at least 10 games.

• Forti last15 clay first set average games: 10.1, Coria: 9.5
• Forti last15 clay: 10 of 15 first sets had 10+ games
• Coria last15 clay: 7 of 13 first sets had 10+ games

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Forti's stronger serve and break point saving in recent clay matches suggest he can edge a tight first set, though his fatigue adds uncertainty.

• Forti last15 clay first serve points won: 71%, Coria: 59.3%
• Coria last15 clay break points saved: 56%, Forti: 64.3%
• Forti career first set win conversion: 88%, Coria: 87%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Forti's slight edge in second serve and comparable return numbers on clay make him the narrow favorite to also take the second set if the match stays competitive.

• Forti last15 clay second serve points won: 50.8%, Coria: 46.4%
• Forti last15 clay return points won: 38.2%, Coria: 38.7%
• Coria last15 clay record: 4-9, often losing in straight sets

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Forti's higher ace rate on clay should push the combined total over 5.5, though Coria's low ace count makes this a borderline call.

• Forti last15 clay aces per match: 4.1, Coria: 1.8
• Forti last15 clay: 8 of 15 matches had 6+ total aces
• Coria last15 clay: 3 of 13 matches had 6+ total aces

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average over 5 double faults combined in recent clay matches, making over 5.5 a reasonable expectation.

• Forti last15 clay double faults per match: 3.0, Coria: 2.3
• Forti last15 clay: 9 of 15 matches had 6+ total double faults
• Coria last15 clay: 6 of 13 matches had 6+ total double faults