United StatesTiburon - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Ozan Baris #486United States1Evan Zhu #600United States2

Sets 4-6 · 6-4 · 4-6Mon 14 Sept 2026, 17:05 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions3–538%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOzan Baris · 114 places

Ozan Baris

United States

The 22-year-old American is right-handed and 185 cm tall. His supplied current ranking of No. 486 matches the career high listed by Sofascore.

Current ranking: #486
Peak ranking: #486
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Evan Zhu

United States

American right-hander whose ATP career-high singles ranking was No. 271 on 6 March 2023. Public results show significant activity on hard and clay, but no authoritative preferred-surface designation was found.

Current ranking: #600
Peak ranking: #271 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 06:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Baris holds a slight edge over Zhu due to ranking, H2H, and first-serve strength, but Zhu's comparable hard-court form keeps it close.

Best angles: over 21.5 total games and under 4.5 double faults; avoid Baris at 1.33.

Context

Baris, 427th, is a 20-year-old American who has played mostly Challenger and ITF events this year.
Baris has won 12 of his last 15 hard-court matches, including a win over world No. 197 Liam Broady, while Zhu has won 11 of 15 but lost to No. 148 Pedro Martinez Portero. Baris also wins 73.6% of first-serve points compared to Zhu's 65.5%, which could give him an edge in holding serve.
- Baris last 15 hard-court record: 12-3 (80% win rate).
- Zhu last 15 hard-court record: 11-4 (73.3% win rate).
- Baris first-serve points won: 73.6% vs Zhu 65.5%.
- Baris beat No. 197 Broady; Zhu lost to No. 148 Martinez Portero.
The two Americans have met once before, in a 2022 ITF event.
Baris won that match in straight sets, but it was on clay and both players have developed significantly since then. The result is a minor psychological edge at best and should not be over-weighted.
- 2022-02-23: Baris def. Zhu 6-4 6-4 on clay.
- H2H stats show Baris won 73% of first-serve points vs Zhu's 71%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Ozan Baris

1.33fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Baris's ranking edge and prior H2H win are offset by Zhu's nearly identical recent hard-court stats, making the 1.33 price too short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Baris's slightly better recent form, ranking edge, and prior H2H win give him a modest advantage, though Zhu's comparable hard-court stats keep this close.
- Ozan Baris last 15 hard-court record: 12-3 (80%), with 70.6% sets won and 57% games won.
- Evan Zhu last 15 hard-court record: 11-4 (73.3%), with 69.7% sets won and 57.9% games won.
- Baris holds a 1-0 H2H edge (6-4 6-4 on clay in 2022), but that surface differs from today's hard court.
- Baris ranking 427 vs Zhu ranking 525; Baris has stronger recent wins over top-200 opponents (Broady, Butvilas loss aside).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOzan BarisEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The close statistical profiles and Baris's tendency toward longer matches make over 21.5 total games likely.
- Baris last 15 average match duration: 114.2 minutes; Zhu 97.1 minutes, suggesting longer matches for Baris.
- Baris last 15 games won percentage: 57% (176/309), Zhu 57.9% (176/304), indicating competitive sets.
- Both players have similar break point conversion rates (Baris 42.1%, Zhu 46.3%), leading to extended games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The balanced return and break point numbers point to a competitive first set, though the low confidence reflects uncertainty in early match dynamics.
- Baris last 15 first-serve points won 73.6% vs Zhu 65.5%, but Zhu's return points won 42.3% vs Baris 42.5% are nearly equal.
- Both players have break point save rates around 65%, suggesting holds are not automatic.
- Recent matches for both show several 6-4 or 7-5 sets, indicating competitive opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Baris's serve advantage and recent dominant wins give him a slight edge to cover -1.5 games, but the overall closeness makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Baris last 15 games won percentage 57% vs Zhu 57.9%, nearly identical.
- Baris has a higher first-serve points won percentage (73.6% vs 65.5%), which could translate to more comfortable holds.
- Baris's recent wins include several straight-set victories with margins of 4+ games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostOzan Baris -1.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Baris's superior first-serve effectiveness and slightly better first-set conversion rate support a first-set win, though confidence is low given Zhu's competitiveness.
- Baris first-set win conversion career: 88%, indicating strong starts.
- Zhu first-set win conversion career: 84%, also solid.
- Baris last 15 first-serve points won: 73.6% vs Zhu 65.5%, giving Baris an early edge on serve.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostOzan BarisEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages are below the line, and both players show reasonable second-serve stability, supporting under 4.5.
- Baris last 15 double faults per match: 2.0; Zhu 2.1, combined average 4.1.
- Baris career double faults per match: 371/163 = 2.28; Zhu 1352/546 = 2.48.
- Both players have similar second-serve points won percentages (Baris 53.1%, Zhu 59%), indicating decent second-serve reliability.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages hover near the line, making over 7.5 a coin-flip with slight lean based on Baris's recent ace rate.
- Baris last 15 aces per match: 4.1; Zhu 3.3, combined average 7.4.
- Baris career aces: 546 in 163 matches (3.35 per match); Zhu 1492 in 546 matches (2.73 per match).
- Both players have first-serve percentages around 60-63%, providing opportunities for aces.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Ozan Baris has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Ozan Baris has fulfilled 3 of 5 recent win projections. The two misses both came as losses, with no draws. His current 62% probability sits within his historical range of 58-62%.

Recent evidence for Ozan Baris5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

7 Jul·Newport - USA

#696Ozan Baris0-2#330Tyler Zink

BetBugsOzan Baris to win·58%

Missed

7 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#696Ozan Baris0-2#330Tyler Zink

Ozan Baris to win

58%probability

Tyler Zink won

Missed

4 Jul·Cary - USA

#895Timo Legout2-0#696Ozan Baris

BetBugsOzan Baris to win·62%

Missed

4 Jul 2026

Cary - USA

#895Timo Legout2-0#696Ozan Baris

Ozan Baris to win

62%probability

Timo Legout won

Missed

2 Jul·Cary - USA

#502Blake Ellis0-2#696Ozan Baris

BetBugsOzan Baris to win·62%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

Cary - USA

#502Blake Ellis0-2#696Ozan Baris

Ozan Baris to win

62%probability

Ozan Baris won

Matched

1 Jul·Cary - USA

#696Ozan Baris2-1#197Juan Pablo Ficovich

BetBugsOzan Baris to win·58%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

Cary - USA

#696Ozan Baris2-1#197Juan Pablo Ficovich

Ozan Baris to win

58%probability

Ozan Baris won

Matched

29 Jun·Cary - USA

#708Ozan Baris2-0#420James Kent Trotter

BetBugsOzan Baris to win·58%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

Cary - USA

#708Ozan Baris2-0#420James Kent Trotter

Ozan Baris to win

58%probability

Ozan Baris won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 6-4Ozan Baris#427vEvan Zhu#525Feb 23, 2022

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Ozan Baris

12W 3L

6-4 4-6 6-2#884Lorenzo Claverie

6-3 6-4—Nikita Filin

6-2 1-6 6-3#874Luca Pow

6-1 6-3—Mitchell Sheldon

6-0 6-2#195Edas Butvilas

6-4 7-5#197Liam Broady

6-4 6-2#759Vignesh Gogineni

2-6 6-3 6-4#299Johannus Monday

6-3 6-1#863Maxwell Exsted

5-7 7-6(5) 7-5#861Oliver Bonding

6-1 6-2—Nikita Filin

6-3 6-2#340Mees Rottgering

7-5 7-5#863Aleksa Ciric

6-3 6-4—Maximus Dussault

6-0 6-1—Teodor Davidov

Evan Zhu

11W 4L

6-3 6-2#613Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski

7-6(8) 4-6 6-2#379Juan Pablo Ficovich

7-5 6-0#742Joshua Sheehy

6-3 6-2#899Arjun Kadhe

7-5 6-4#148Pedro Martinez Portero

7-5 6-2#397Andrew Fenty

6-2 6-4#828Tauheed Browning

6-2 6-4#445Timo Legout

6-0 6-3—Maximus Dussault

6-2 6-3#864Patrick Maloney

6-1 7-6(2)—Cooper Woestendick

6-4 6-4#1138Joshua Peck

6-3 6-2#152Mark Lajal

6-2 4-6 6-3#473Christian Langmo

6-3 3-6 6-3#499Anton Shepp

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OBOzan BarisBaris

Last 15

2–3

9 core stats · 4 even

Evan ZhuZhuEZ

Evan Zhu carries the stronger recent form — Ozan Baris's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.0%+2.6pp62.6%

1st Serve Won73.6%+8.1pp65.5%

2nd Serve Won53.1%+5.9pp59.0%

Aces / Match4.1+0.83.3

Double Faults / Match2.0—2.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won42.5%—42.3%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted42.1%+4.2pp46.3%

Break Pts Saved65.0%—65.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won53.6%—53.2%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

60.0%1st Serve In+2.6pp62.6%

73.6%1st Serve Won+8.1pp65.5%

53.1%2nd Serve Won+5.9pp59.0%

4.1Aces / Match+0.83.3

2.0Double Faults / Match—2.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

42.5%Return Pts Won—42.3%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

42.1%Break Pts Converted+4.2pp46.3%

65.0%Break Pts Saved—65.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

53.6%Total Pts Won—53.2%