FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Justin Boulais #398Canada2Theo ArribageFrance0

Sets 7-6 · 6-2Sun 13 Sept 2026, 19:10 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions8–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Justin Boulais

Canada

Canadian player; ITF records his ATP singles career high as No. 363 in June 2026. Public profile sources identify him as a left-hander with a one-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #398
Peak ranking: #363 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Theo Arribage

France

Arribage, 25, is the left-hander in this matchup. Hard is listed as his preferred surface; no current singles ranking is published, while his best singles ranking was No. 1053 in November 2022.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: #1053 · 2022
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 15:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Boulais is a strong favorite over Arribage due to better form, return stats, and ranking, but the 1.12 odds offer no value.

Instead, consider Boulais -3.5 games handicap or over 21.5 total games, as both players have shown vulnerability and competitive sets.

Context

Boulais, 403rd, is a left-hander with a one-handed backhand and has spent most of his career on hard courts.
His 33.3% win rate over the last 15 matches and 38.8% return points won suggest he may struggle to control rallies against Arribage. However, his first-serve points won (68.6%) is solid, so he can still hold serve when landing first serves.
- Last 15 overall record: 5-10 (33.3% win rate).
- Return points won: 38.8% (below tour average).
- First serve points won: 68.6% (solid).
Arribage is a French left-hander with a two-handed backhand and no current ATP ranking.
His lack of recent match play makes his current level uncertain, but his last 15 stats show a 20% win rate and poor return numbers. This could give Boulais an edge if Arribage is rusty, but the small sample size limits confidence.
- Only 3 matches since December 2024, including a retirement in December 2024.
- Last 15 overall record: 3-12 (20% win rate).
- Return points won: 33.0% (very low).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Justin Boulais

1.12fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 89.3%

0.0ppshort

Boulais has superior recent form, return stats, and ranking, giving him a clear edge in this Bo3 match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Boulais has superior recent form, return stats, and ranking, giving him a clear edge in this Bo3 match.
- Boulais last 15: 5-10 record, 49.7% total points won, 38.8% return points won
- Arribage last 15: 3-12 record, 45.7% total points won, 33.0% return points won
- Boulais ranking 403 vs Arribage unranked; Boulais has 121 career wins vs Arribage 50
- Boulais 2026 hard court: 26-20; Arribage 2025 hard court: 1-2
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJustin BoulaisEstimated chance78%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown vulnerability and competitive sets, suggesting a match that could exceed 21.5 games.
- Boulais last 15 average 24.3 games per match (365 games / 15 matches)
- Arribage last 15 average 19.9 games per match (299 games / 15 matches)
- Boulais has played 7 three-set matches in last 15; Arribage 4 three-set matches
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Boulais's overall game advantage should translate into a comfortable margin of victory.
- Boulais last 15 games won percentage: 49%
- Arribage last 15 games won percentage: 41.1%
- Boulais has won 5 of last 15 matches, Arribage 3
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonJustin Boulais -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players holding serve at a decent rate.
- Boulais last 15 average games per set: 9.7
- Arribage last 15 average games per set: 8.8
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Boulais's stronger return game and overall form should help him take the opening set.
- Boulais first set win conversion 79% career; Arribage 82%
- Boulais last 15 first serve points won 68.6%, Arribage 68.7%
- Boulais return points won 38.8% vs Arribage 33.0%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJustin BoulaisEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Boulais's superior form and Arribage's tendency to lose in straight sets support a 2-0 victory.
- Boulais last 15: 5 wins, 4 in straight sets
- Arribage last 15: 3 wins, 2 in straight sets
- Arribage has lost 10 of last 15 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Set BettingwonJustin Boulais 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to be decided in straight sets given both players' recent patterns.
- Boulais last 15: 10 matches ended in straight sets
- Arribage last 15: 11 matches ended in straight sets
- Both players have low deciding set win percentages (Boulais 43%, Arribage 48%)
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 4 aces per match, making over 7.5 total aces likely.
- Boulais last 15 aces per match: 3.8
- Arribage last 15 aces per match: 4.3
- Combined average aces per match: 8.1
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double fault rates, making over 10.5 total double faults probable.
- Boulais last 15 double faults per match: 4.7
- Arribage last 15 double faults per match: 6.5
- Combined average double faults per match: 11.2
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in tiebreaks recently, and their serve stats suggest close sets.
- Boulais tiebreak win percentage career: 49%
- Arribage tiebreak win percentage career: 36%
- Boulais has played 5 tiebreaks in last 15 matches; Arribage 3
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance50%

Justin Boulais

5W 10L

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#639Matisse Bobichon

6-0 6-3—Matis Roche

7-6(4) 6-3#97Benjamin Bonzi

7-5 7-6(4)#93Adam Walton

6-3 6-3—Connor Church

5-7 6-2 7-5#299Johannus Monday

6-1 6-3#247August Holmgren

7-5 6-1#396Yuta Shimizu

6-2 7-6(6)#154Zhizhen Zhang

7-6(4) 6-0#467Kenta Miyoshi

6-4 6-2#608Millen Hurrion

6-7(8) 6-4 7-6(3)#370Tung-Lin Wu

7-6(2) 4-6 6-3#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-7(6) 7-5 6-3#513Enzo Aguiard

1-6 7-5 6-2#427Ozan Baris

Theo Arribage

3W 12L

6-1 6-0#157Rei Sakamoto

7-5 1-0 ret.#365Jake Delaney

6-0 6-3—Antoine Voisin

6-2 4-6 6-0#281Dan Added

6-4 6-3#775Gabriel Decamps

6-3 6-3#473Christian Langmo

6-2 6-2#177Max Alcala Gurri

6-4 2-1 ret.#690Strong Kirchheimer

4-6 6-1 6-4#869Peter Bertran

7-6(4) 6-3#887Alexander Bernard

7-6(6) 2-6 6-3#247August Holmgren

6-4 6-2#320Max Hans Rehberg

7-5 7-6(3)#726Joris De Loore

6-4 4-6 6-2—Timofey Stepanov

6-4 6-2#131Leandro Riedi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JBJustin BoulaisBoulais

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Theo ArribageArribageTA

Justin Boulais carries the stronger recent form — Theo Arribage's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In56.1%+0.8pp56.9%

1st Serve Won68.6%—68.7%

2nd Serve Won52.5%+9.1pp43.4%

Aces / Match3.8+0.54.3

Double Faults / Match4.71.8 fewer6.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.8%+5.8pp33.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted37.2%+4.4pp32.8%

Break Pts Saved60.9%+10.9pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won49.7%+4.0pp45.7%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

56.1%1st Serve In+0.8pp56.9%

68.6%1st Serve Won—68.7%

52.5%2nd Serve Won+9.1pp43.4%

3.8Aces / Match+0.54.3

4.7Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer6.5

Return · 1–0

38.8%Return Pts Won+5.8pp33.0%

Pressure · 2–0

37.2%Break Pts Converted+4.4pp32.8%

60.9%Break Pts Saved+10.9pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

49.7%Total Pts Won+4.0pp45.7%