PolandSzczecin - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Dali Blanch #313United States2Jan Chlodnicki #1759Poland0

Sets 6-2 · 6-0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 13:20 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDali Blanch · 1446 places

Dali Blanch

United States

American right-hander, age 23, with clay listed as his preferred surface. Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 284 in June 2026.

Current ranking: #313
Peak ranking: #284 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Jan Chlodnicki

Poland

Born 10 October 2008 and listed as right-handed. Public player records list a current ATP singles ranking of No. 1,759 and a career high of No. 1,748; no verified preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #1759
Peak ranking: #1748
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 15:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Blanch's superior ranking, clay-court experience, and serve stats make him the likely winner, but his poor recent form and Chlodnicki's inflated record create some uncertainty.

Best bets: Blanch -3.5 games or over 21.5 total games. Avoid Chlodnicki outright despite the tempting odds.

Context

Blanch, 342 in the world, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and a career win rate of 52.7%.
His recent clay record is 5-8, but many defeats came against players ranked inside the top 250. Against lower-ranked opposition he has been more competitive, which matters here because Chlodnicki is unranked.
- Blanch's last 15 clay matches: 5 wins, 8 losses.
- Losses include opponents ranked 145, 177, 192, 208, 223, 233, 283, 374, 458.
- Wins include opponents ranked 177, 208, 570, 800, and unranked players.
Chlodnicki is an unranked Polish player with a career win rate of 61.5% and a 7-3 clay record in 2026.
His recent clay success is built on wins over unranked opponents, while his losses have come against ranked players like Vladyslav Orlov (436) and Linus Lagerbohm. This suggests he may struggle against a more experienced opponent like Blanch.
- Chlodnicki's last 11 clay matches: 7 wins, 4 losses.
- Wins include opponents ranked 440, 734, and several unranked players.
- Losses include opponents ranked 436 and unranked Linus Lagerbohm.
Jan Chlodnicki, ATP No. 1759, is the right-hander in this qualifying match and received a wild card into the Szczecin qualifying draw.
The wild card confirms his entry route but does not change his recent form or the ranking gap against Dali Blanch.
- The 4 September tournament announcement listed Chlodnicki among the four qualifying wild-card recipients.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ReportedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 15:02 · Europe/BucharestSuper FMsuper.fm · 4 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Dali Blanch

1.07fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 93.5%

0.0ppshort

Blanch's superior ranking and experience against tougher competition outweigh Chlodnicki's recent winning record against weak opposition.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.07
The read
Blanch's superior ranking and experience against tougher competition outweigh Chlodnicki's recent winning record against weak opposition.
- Blanch has a 342 ATP ranking vs Chlodnicki unranked (null).
- Blanch career clay win% 109-? (surfaceWins clay 109) vs Chlodnicki 7 clay wins.
- Blanch last15 overall record 6-9 (40%) but against much higher-ranked opponents (avg opponent rank ~300).
- Chlodnicki last15 record 8-5 (61.5%) but mostly against unranked or low-ranked players.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDali BlanchEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Blanch's matches tend to be longer and competitive, and Chlodnicki's recent dominant wins may not continue against a higher-ranked opponent.
- Blanch last15 average games per match: 23.8 (357 games / 15 matches).
- Chlodnicki last15 average games per match: 18.8 (244 games / 13 matches).
- Blanch recent matches often go to three sets (5 of last 15).
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Blanch's stronger serve and higher career first-set conversion rate give him a slight edge in the opening set.
- Blanch first set win conversion career 79%.
- Chlodnicki first set win conversion career 100% but small sample (13 matches).
- Blanch last15 first serve points won 70.6% vs Chlodnicki 58.4%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDali BlanchEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Blanch's serve is a major weapon and should produce enough aces to push the total over the line.
- Blanch last15 aces per match 5.8.
- Chlodnicki last15 aces per match 1.5.
- Combined expected aces ~7.3.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 3 double faults per match, making the over a near coin flip.
- Blanch last15 double faults per match 3.9.
- Chlodnicki last15 double faults per match 3.0.
- Combined expected double faults ~6.9.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Chlodnicki's recent winning record is inflated by weak opposition, and his underlying stats are inferior to Blanch's.

Dali Blanch

6W 9L

6-3 3-6 6-1#223Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-2#465Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-3 3-6 7-5#243Hugo Grenier

6-4 6-2#458Rudolf Molleker

6-4 7-6(3)#374Tommaso Compagnucci

6-2 6-2—Samuel Zannoni

6-7(3) 7-5 6-4#145Tom Gentzsch

7-5 3-6 7-6(3)—Mickael Kaouk

6-3 6-3#283Sandro Kopp

6-2 6-3#570Lorenzo Angelini

6-4 6-2#800Dinko Dinev

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#192David Jorda Sanchis

6-2 6-2#208Daniel Rincon

7-5 6-2#177Max Alcala Gurri

7-6(1) 6-4#233Kilian Feldbausch

Jan Chlodnicki

8W 5L

6-2 6-0—Linus Lagerbohm

7-6(2) 6-4#440Corentin Denolly

6-1 6-1—Filip Kosinski

6-2 6-1—Maciej Matuszczyk

6-1 6-1—Sebastian Truszczynski

6-2 7-6(4)—Jan Wygona

1-6 6-3 10-7—Bruno Kokot

6-2 6-0—Filip Bojko

6-3 6-2—Jakub Solarski

7-6(5) 6-1#734Peter Fajta

6-2 6-1#436Vladyslav Orlov

6-4 6-3—Alan Bojarski

6-2 3-6 6-2#865Bautista Vilicich

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DBDali BlanchBlanch

Last 15 · 15 vs 13

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Jan ChlodnickiChlodnickiJC

Dali Blanch carries the stronger recent form — Jan Chlodnicki's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 11/1357.5%—58.1%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 11/1370.6%+12.2pp58.4%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 11/1346.0%+1.1pp44.9%

Aces / Match14/15 · 11/135.8+4.31.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 11/133.90.9 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 11/1339.1%+5.8pp44.9%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 11/1338.7%+9.9pp48.6%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 11/1359.6%—59.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 11/1349.6%+0.8pp48.8%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

57.5%1st Serve In14/15 · 11/13—58.1%

70.6%1st Serve Won14/15 · 11/13+12.2pp58.4%

46.0%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 11/13+1.1pp44.9%

5.8Aces / Match14/15 · 11/13+4.31.5

3.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 11/130.9 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

39.1%Return Pts Won14/15 · 11/13+5.8pp44.9%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

38.7%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 11/13+9.9pp48.6%

59.6%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 11/13—59.8%

Points · 1–0

49.6%Total Pts Won14/15 · 11/13+0.8pp48.8%