Andrew Fenty #392United States00 – 2Justin Boulais #423Canada2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Fenty's slightly better career win rate and recent dominant win, combined with a higher first-set conversion rate, give him a marginal edge on hard court.

• Fenty has a 55.6% career win rate vs Boulais' 52.1%.
• Fenty holds a 66% win on first serve vs Boulais' 67%, but Fenty's break point save rate is 55.3% vs Boulais' 59.5%.
• Fenty's recent form: 8-7 in last 15, with a dominant 6-2 6-1 win in his last match; Boulais is 8-7 in last 15 but suffered a 6-0 6-0 loss two matches ago.
• Fenty has a higher first-set win conversion (89% vs 81%), indicating he capitalizes on early leads.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have been involved in matches with extended games recently, and their similar return stats indicate a likely close contest with over 21.5 games.

• In Fenty's last 15 matches, 9 had 22 or more games; Boulais' last 15 had 10 with 22+ games.
• Both players have similar return points won (40%) and break point conversion rates (Fenty 41.9%, Boulais 40.3%), suggesting competitive games.
• Fenty's matches average 20.8 games, Boulais' average 20.5, but recent tight matches push the total higher.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent first sets have been tight for both, and their serve stats support a competitive opening set likely exceeding 9.5 games.

• In Fenty's last 5 matches, 3 first sets had 10+ games; Boulais had 3 of 5 with 10+ games.
• Both players have tiebreak win rates around 50%, indicating close sets.
• Fenty's first-serve points won (65.7%) and Boulais' (66.9%) are similar, suggesting few breaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Fenty's higher first-set conversion rate suggests he is slightly more likely to take the opening set, though recent form is similar.

• Fenty's first-set win conversion is 89% vs Boulais' 81%.
• In his last 5 matches, Fenty won the first set in 3 of them, while Boulais won the first set in 3 of his last 5.
• Both players have similar first-serve percentages (Fenty 65.7%, Boulais 64.1%).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

With both players having tiebreak experience and similar stats, a tiebreak is a coin-flip possibility.

• Fenty's tiebreak win rate is 51%, Boulais' is 53%.
• In Fenty's last 15 matches, 5 featured a tiebreak; Boulais had 4 in his last 15.
• Both players have similar serve and return stats, leading to close sets.