Titouan Droguet #119France22 – 1Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #152Norway1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Droguet's stronger recent hard-court form and higher point-winning percentage give him a clear edge in this semi-final.

• Droguet is 8-3 on hard courts in his last 15 matches (72.7% win rate), while Kjaer is 6-5 (54.5%).
• Droguet has won 52.1% of total points on hard courts in that window vs Kjaer's 49.3%.
• Droguet's recent form includes wins over top-100 opponents (Faria, Van Assche) and a three-set loss to No. 17 Nakashima; Kjaer lost to Lajal and O'Connell in straight sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The competitive nature of the matchup and both players' tendency toward longer matches make over 21.5 games likely.

• Droguet's last 15 hard-court matches averaged 22.9 games per match.
• Kjaer's last 15 hard-court matches averaged 22.1 games per match.
• Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently, with Droguet at 4 of 11 and Kjaer at 3 of 11 on hard courts.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined double-fault averages suggest a total above 5.5 is more likely than not.

• Droguet averages 3.5 double faults per match on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
• Kjaer averages 2.5 double faults per match on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
• Combined average is 6.0 double faults per match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Droguet's high ace count alone could push the total over 9.5, though Kjaer's lower output makes this a moderate play.

• Droguet averages 7.5 aces per match on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
• Kjaer averages 3.6 aces per match on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
• Combined average is 11.1 aces per match, but Kjaer's lower ace rate adds variance.