Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Maximus Jones #489Thailand0Hiroki Moriya #518Japan2

Sets 3-6 · 6-7Wed 9 Sept 2026, 03:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–363%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaximus Jones · 29 places

Maximus Jones

Thailand

Jones, 21, represents Thailand and is a right-hander. He reached a career-best No. 301 in February 2026; the available profile material does not identify a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #489
Peak ranking: #301 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

Moriya, 35, is a right-hander whose preferred surface is hard. His career-high singles ranking was No. 143 in January 2015.

Current ranking: #518
Peak ranking: #143 · 2015
Current age: 35
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 15:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Moriya holds a slight edge due to superior returning and a prior H2H win, but Jones' recent form and strong first serve keep it close.

The match is likely to be competitive, with over 21.5 total games and over 9.5 games in the first set offering value.

Context

Jones, 489th, and Moriya, 518th, are both right-handed Challenger regulars with extensive hard-court experience.
Jones has won 53.3% of his last 15 matches and holds a 73% first-serve points won rate, while Moriya has won 46.7% and returns at 39.5%. The overall level is close, so the match may hinge on who converts break points better.
- Jones: 8-7 record in last 15, 73% first-serve points won, 50% break points converted.
- Moriya: 7-8 record in last 15, 39.5% return points won, 47.1% break points converted.
- Both have played all recent matches on hard courts.
Moriya, 35, has a long career with over 1,100 matches played.
The 2023 win gives Moriya a minor psychological edge, but both players have changed form since then. It is a small factor at best.
- 2023-06-14: Moriya def. Jones 6-3 7-6(5) on hard court.
- Only one career meeting.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moriya's superior return game and prior H2H win give a slight edge, but Jones' recent form is comparable.
- H2H: Moriya won their only meeting 6-3 7-6(5) on hard in 2023.
- Moriya last15 hard: 46.2% record, 50.2% games won; Jones last15 hard: 53.3% record, 50.9% games won.
- Moriya return points won last15: 39.5% vs Jones 35.5%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHiroki MoriyaEstimated chance52%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive match expected with both players having close stats, likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Jones last15 average duration: 113.1 minutes; Moriya 107.3 minutes.
- Jones last15 games per match: 22.4; Moriya 21.2.
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50%.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches show tight first sets, making over 9.5 games likely.
- Jones last15 first set average games: 9.3; Moriya 9.1.
- Both players have similar first set competitiveness.
- H2H first set was 6-3, under 9.5, but recent form suggests closer sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moriya's return edge and H2H win suggest he can keep the match close or win outright.
- Moriya last15 games won percentage: 50.3%; Jones 50.9%.
- Moriya return points won: 39.5% vs Jones 35.5%.
- H2H Moriya won in straight sets.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonHiroki Moriya +1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been close, and the H2H second set went to a tiebreak.
- Jones last15 second set average games: 9.5; Moriya 9.3.
- Both players have similar second set competitiveness.
- H2H second set was 7-6, over 9.5.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Moriya's return edge may help him start strong, but Jones' first serve is slightly better.
- Moriya first set win conversion career: 85%; Jones 85%.
- Moriya last15 first serve points won: 68.3%; Jones 73%.
- Moriya return points won last15: 39.5% vs Jones 35.5%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHiroki MoriyaEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Jones' ace count alone may push the total over 7.5, but Moriya's low ace rate adds uncertainty.
- Jones last15 aces per match: 5.7; Moriya 2.5.
- Combined average aces per match: 8.2.
- Jones' higher ace rate drives the total.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault average is above 5.5, making over likely.
- Jones last15 double faults per match: 3.1; Moriya 3.4.
- Combined average double faults per match: 6.5.
- Both players have similar double fault rates.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Hiroki Moriya has struggled to convert projected wins

Hiroki Moriya has fulfilled 1 of 4 recent win projections. The average estimated probability was 61.5%, but only 25% of those matches were won. All three missed projections resulted in losses, with no draws.

Recent evidence for Hiroki Moriya4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

7 Jul·Newport - USA

#856Jason Jung2-0#472Hiroki Moriya

BetBugsHiroki Moriya to win·58%

Missed

7 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#856Jason Jung2-0#472Hiroki Moriya

Hiroki Moriya to win

58%probability

Jason Jung won

Missed

26 May·Little Rock - USA

#417Hiroki Moriya0-2#771Timo Legout

BetBugsHiroki Moriya to win·65%

Missed

26 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#417Hiroki Moriya0-2#771Timo Legout

Hiroki Moriya to win

65%probability

Timo Legout won

Missed

25 May·Little Rock - USA

#416Hiroki Moriya0-2#1391Ronald Hohmann

BetBugsHiroki Moriya to win·65%

Missed

25 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#416Hiroki Moriya0-2#1391Ronald Hohmann

Hiroki Moriya to win

65%probability

Ronald Hohmann won

Missed

3 May·Wuxi - China

#493Pietro Orlando Fellin1-2#429Hiroki Moriya

BetBugsHiroki Moriya to win·58%

Matched

3 May 2026

Wuxi - China

#493Pietro Orlando Fellin1-2#429Hiroki Moriya

Hiroki Moriya to win

58%probability

Hiroki Moriya won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-3 7-6(5)Maximus Jones#489vHiroki Moriya#518Jun 14, 2023

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Maximus Jones

8W 7L

6-0 3-6 7-6(4)#303Florent Bax 6-0 6-4#530Ivan Ivanov 6-3 6-4#824Oskari Paldanius

6-2 7-5#287Alastair Gray

6-2 3-1 ret.#393Ilya Ivashka

6-0 7-6(5)#293Matthew Dellavedova

6-3 3-6 6-1#539Kokoro Isomura

6-1 4-6 6-2#888Ryota Tanuma

3-6 6-4 6-0#877Makoto Ochi

7-5 6-4#717Hunter Heck

6-4 7-5#835Jangjun Kim

6-2 6-3#1581Shunrou Takeshima

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#612Mukund Sasikumar

6-7(6) 6-3 6-1#353Philip Sekulic

6-2 6-7(5) 6-4#598Amit Vales

Hiroki Moriya

7W 8L

4-6 6-1 6-2#506Dominik Palan

6-1 7-6(2)#486Kasidit Samrej

6-1 6-1#617S D Prajwal Dev

6-1 6-3#896Grigoriy Lomakin

6-2 6-2#370Tung-Lin Wu

6-3 6-1#821Kousuke Ogura

6-2 6-0#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-3 7-6(9)#864Patrick Maloney

7-5 6-3#255Hayato Matsuoka

7-6(6) 4-6 6-1#712Thomas Fancutt

6-3 5-7 6-1#678Andreja Petrovic

7-6(6) 7-6(3)#899Jason Jung

6-4 7-6(1)#376Alex Martinez

4-6 6-2 6-3#344Edward Winter

7-6(3) 5-2 ret.#478Alex Rybakov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MJMaximus JonesJones

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Hiroki MoriyaMoriyaHM

Maximus Jones carries the stronger recent form — Hiroki Moriya's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In61.7%+3.0pp58.7%

1st Serve Won73.0%+4.7pp68.3%

2nd Serve Won48.6%+1.4pp50.0%

Aces / Match5.7+3.22.5

Double Faults / Match3.10.3 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.5%+4.0pp39.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted50.0%+2.9pp47.1%

Break Pts Saved62.9%+4.0pp58.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.4%—50.0%

Serve · 4–1

61.7%1st Serve In+3.0pp58.7%

73.0%1st Serve Won+4.7pp68.3%

48.6%2nd Serve Won+1.4pp50.0%

5.7Aces / Match+3.22.5

3.1Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

35.5%Return Pts Won+4.0pp39.5%

Pressure · 2–0

50.0%Break Pts Converted+2.9pp47.1%

62.9%Break Pts Saved+4.0pp58.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.4%Total Pts Won—50.0%