FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Ugo Blanchet #190France2Daniel Rincon #206Spain1

Sets 6-3 · 3-6 · 6-3Wed 9 Sept 2026, 09:40 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions7–188%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageUgo Blanchet · 16 places

Ugo Blanchet

France

Reached a career-high No. 139 on 30 September 2024. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface; the supplied structured profile ranks him No. 190.

Current ranking: #190
Peak ranking: #139 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Daniel Rincon

Spain

Rincón reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 181 on 4 December 2023. Reliable public profile sources did not establish a preferred surface or a supported injury-related decline narrative.

Current ranking: #206
Peak ranking: #181 · 2023
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 22:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Blanchet's perfect H2H and comparable hard-court stats give him a slight edge over Rincon, but Rincon's superior recent form keeps it close.

Bet on Blanchet to win at 1.80 (edge 2.4pts), over 21.5 total games, and a tiebreak in the match.

Context

Blanchet, 26, is a right-hander ranked 199 and has a career win rate of 56.6%. Rincon, 23, is a left-hander ranked 208 with a 57% career win rate.
Blanchet won 7-5 7-6(5) on grass in 2025 and 6-4 7-5 on hard in 2023. In those matches he served better and converted break points more effectively, which could give him a tactical edge in this second-round meeting.
- Blanchet leads the head-to-head 2-0.
- He won on hard court in 2023 and on grass in 2025, both in straight sets.
- In H2H stats, Blanchet won 79% of first-serve points compared to Rincon's 73%.
Rincon has a 66.7% win rate on hard courts in his last six matches, while Blanchet is at 50% in the same sample.
Rincon's recent hard-court results include wins over Titouan Droguet and Daniil Glinka, while Blanchet lost to Otto Virtanen and Stefanos Sakellaridis. However, Rincon's last hard-court loss came against Inaki Montes-De La Torre, so his form is not flawless.
- Rincon is 4-2 on hard courts in his last six matches.
- Blanchet is 3-3 on hard courts in his last six matches.
- Rincon's wins include a victory over world No. 103 Titouan Droguet.
Blanchet's return points won percentage is 34.4% over his last 15 matches, below the tour average.
Rincon has saved 68.8% of break points in his last 15 matches, so Blanchet may struggle to create break opportunities. However, Rincon's second-serve points won is only 50%, giving Blanchet a possible target.
- Blanchet's return points won is 34.4% in his last 15 matches.
- Rincon's break points saved is 68.8% in his last 15 matches.
- Rincon's second-serve points won is 50% in his last 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Blanchet's perfect H2H and comparable recent hard-court numbers give him a slight edge, though Rincon's better recent hard-court record keeps this close.
- H2H: Blanchet leads 2-0, both wins in straight sets (2025 grass, 2023 hard).
- Blanchet last 15 on hard: 50% record, 51.2% games won; Rincon last 15 on hard: 66.7% record, 51.1% games won.
- Blanchet career hard win% 56.6 vs Rincon 57 overall, but Rincon's hard surface wins are fewer (54 vs 118).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonUgo BlanchetEstimated chance58%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, and their similar games-won percentages suggest a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Blanchet last 15 average duration 113.4 min; Rincon 129.4 min.
- Blanchet last 15 games won 47.3%, Rincon 48.8%.
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rincon's recent hard-court form and competitive games-won percentage make him likely to stay within 2.5 games of Blanchet.
- Rincon last 15 on hard: 66.7% record, 51.1% games won.
- Blanchet last 15 on hard: 50% record, 51.2% games won.
- Rincon has won 4 of last 6 hard matches, including wins over higher-ranked opponents.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonDaniel Rincon +2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serving from both and competitive H2H first sets make a longer first set plausible, though variance is high.
- Blanchet last 15 first serve points won 73.4%, Rincon 70%.
- Both players have strong first-serve numbers, which can lead to tight sets.
- H2H first set scores: 7-5, 6-4.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Solid second-set serving and break point resilience from both suggest another tight set, though confidence is limited.
- Blanchet second serve points won 56.7%, Rincon 50%.
- Both players have break point save rates above 65% in last 15.
- H2H second set scores: 7-6(5), 7-5.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players frequently go to three sets, and their similar competitive levels make a deciding set more likely than a straight-set blowout.
- Blanchet last 15: 5 wins, 10 losses, with 7 three-set matches.
- Rincon last 15: 8 wins, 7 losses, with 6 three-set matches.
- Both players have deciding set win rates around 53-60%.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Blanchet's strong first-set conversion and H2H pattern support a slight first-set edge, but Rincon's recent form makes it a low-confidence lean.
- Blanchet first set win conversion career 87%, Rincon 89%.
- Blanchet won first set in both H2H meetings.
- Blanchet last 15 first serve points won 73.4% vs Rincon 70%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonUgo BlanchetEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have frequent tiebreaks in recent matches and similar tiebreak win rates, making at least one tiebreak likely.
- Blanchet tiebreak win% career 54%; Rincon 50%.
- Blanchet last 15 has 4 tiebreaks in 15 matches; Rincon has 5 tiebreaks in 15 matches.
- H2H second set in 2025 went to a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages suggest a total over 10.5 is plausible, especially if the match goes three sets.
- Blanchet last 15 aces per match 5.0; Rincon 6.1.
- Combined average aces per match ~11.1.
- Both players have first serve percentages around 51-60%.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is near the line, but both players' recent rates suggest a slight lean to the under.
- Blanchet last 15 double faults per match 2.9; Rincon 2.1.
- Combined average double faults per match ~5.0.
- Both players have relatively low double fault rates.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W7-5 7-6(5)Ugo Blanchet#199vDaniel Rincon#208Jun 23, 2025

W6-4 7-5Ugo Blanchet#199vDaniel Rincon#208Oct 9, 2023

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Ugo Blanchet

5W 10L

6-3 6-3#386Laurent Lokoli

6-4 6-4#109Otto Virtanen

6-4 3-6 6-2#136Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-7(3) 6-2 7-5#897James Watt

6-4 4-6 7-6(4)#229Stefano Napolitano

6-7(3) 7-6(6) 7-6(3)#157Rei Sakamoto

6-3 6-3#308Oliver Tarvet

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-4#214Felix Gill

6-4 6-2#126Pablo Llamas Ruiz

4-6 7-6(9) 6-4#237Charles Broom

6-3 7-6(2)#600Pierre Delage

6-1 5-7 6-2#429Maxime Chazal

6-2 6-4#215Henri Squire

7-5 6-4#135Cristian Garin

6-3 6-4#341Marko Topo

Daniel Rincon

8W 7L

6-3 6-4#381Manas Manoj Dhamne 6-2 6-4#274Inaki Montes-De La Torre 7-6(3) 6-3#156Daniil Glinka

6-4 6-3#144Tomas Barrios Vera

6-3 4-6 6-1—Jordan Lee

2-6 6-4 7-6(1)#103Titouan Droguet

7-6(1) 6-0#118Zsombor Piros

6-4 6-7(5) 6-3#155Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

7-6(8) 4-6 6-3#198Thiago Seyboth Wild

7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(8)#351Thomas Faurel

7-5 6-2#76Jan Choinski

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#206Laslo Djere

3-6 7-5 6-3#125Sebastian Ofner

6-4 6-4#145Tom Gentzsch

4-6 6-4 6-3#82Facundo Diaz Acosta

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

UBUgo BlanchetBlanchet

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Daniel RinconRinconDR

Daniel Rincon carries the stronger recent form — Ugo Blanchet's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In51.2%+9.2pp60.4%

1st Serve Won73.4%+3.4pp70.0%

2nd Serve Won56.7%+6.7pp50.0%

Aces / Match5.0+1.16.1

Double Faults / Match2.90.8 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won34.4%+3.1pp37.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted27.6%+6.4pp34.0%

Break Pts Saved65.1%+3.7pp68.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.3%—49.7%

Serve · 2–3

51.2%1st Serve In+9.2pp60.4%

73.4%1st Serve Won+3.4pp70.0%

56.7%2nd Serve Won+6.7pp50.0%

5.0Aces / Match+1.16.1

2.9Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

34.4%Return Pts Won+3.1pp37.5%

Pressure · 0–2

27.6%Break Pts Converted+6.4pp34.0%

65.1%Break Pts Saved+3.7pp68.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.3%Total Pts Won—49.7%