FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Ugo Blanchet #190France2Laurent Lokoli #434France0

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Tue 8 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions1–517%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageUgo Blanchet · 244 places

Ugo Blanchet

France

Reached a career-high No. 139 on 30 September 2024. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface; the supplied structured profile ranks him No. 190.

Current ranking: #190
Peak ranking: #139 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Laurent Lokoli

France

Lokoli, 31, is the right-hander in this matchup. His career-best singles ranking was No. 167 in February 2023.

Current ranking: #434
Peak ranking: #167 · 2023
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 03:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Lokoli is in outstanding form with a 13-2 record in his last 15 matches, while Blanchet has struggled at 4-11.

Lokoli's superior return game and head-to-head win make him a strong favorite, with a 78% win probability. The best betting angle is Lokoli to win at odds of 2.60, offering significant value.

Context

Lokoli, 386th, has been playing mostly clay-court Challenger and ITF events in France and Italy, winning 12 of his last 14 on that surface. His recent opponents have often been ranked outside the top 300.
Lokoli's 86.7% win rate in the last 15 matches dwarfs Blanchet's 26.7%, and his return points won (47.7% vs 33.8%) and break-point conversion (50.4% vs 26.1%) show a much more effective baseline game. However, most of Lokoli's wins came on clay against lower-ranked players, so the hard-court transition and step up in opponent quality add uncertainty.
- Lokoli last 15 overall: 13-2 record, 78.8% sets won, 63.7% games won.
- Blanchet last 15 overall: 4-11 record, 29.7% sets won, 45.5% games won.
- Lokoli return points won 47.7% vs Blanchet 33.8%; break points converted 50.4% vs 26.1%.
- Lokoli's last 15 include 14 clay matches; Blanchet's include 8 clay, 5 hard, 2 grass.
Blanchet, ranked 199, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand. His recent hard-court sample is only five matches, but it includes a win over Stefano Napolitano and a close loss to Otto Virtanen.
Blanchet's serve is more effective on hard courts than his overall numbers suggest, which could keep him competitive in service games. However, his poor break-point conversion (24%) means he may struggle to capitalize on Lokoli's second serve, and the small sample size makes this trend less reliable.
- Blanchet hard-court last 15: 2-3 record, 72.4% first-serve points won, 59.6% second-serve points won.
- Blanchet hard-court break points converted: 24% (12/50).
- Blanchet hard-court sample: 5 matches tracked.
The two French players met once before, in 2023, when Lokoli was ranked 386 and Blanchet 199.
Lokoli's straight-set win gives him a psychological edge, but the match was three years ago and both players have changed since. The surface is the same, so the result is relevant but not decisive.
- 2023-09-05: Lokoli def. Blanchet 7-6(4), 7-5 on hard court.
- In that match, Lokoli won 43% of return points vs Blanchet's 34%, and 52% of second-serve points vs 44%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Lokoli's dominant recent form and superior return game give him a clear edge over Blanchet, whose recent results have been poor.
- Lokoli last 15 overall record 13-2 (86.7%), Blanchet 4-11 (26.7%)
- Lokoli last 15 clay record 12-2 (85.7%), Blanchet clay 2-6 (25%)
- Lokoli return points won 47.7% vs Blanchet 33.8% in last 15
- H2H: Lokoli won 7-6(4) 7-5 on hard in 2023
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLaurent LokoliEstimated chance78%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lokoli's efficient wins and Blanchet's struggles suggest a relatively short match with fewer total games.
- Lokoli last 15 average games per match: 18.7 (281 games / 15 matches)
- Blanchet last 15 average games per match: 25.5 (382 games / 15 matches)
- Lokoli has won 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lokoli's edge in key metrics and Blanchet's struggles support a handicap cover of -3.5 games.
- Lokoli average games won per match: 11.9, Blanchet: 11.6
- Lokoli's superior return and break point conversion
- Blanchet's poor recent form with many straight-set losses
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostLaurent Lokoli -3.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lokoli's strong set-winning rate and first-set conversion suggest he is likely to take the opening set.
- Lokoli first set win conversion career 89%, Blanchet 87%
- Lokoli last 15 sets won 78.8%, Blanchet 29.7%
- Lokoli has won first set in 12 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLaurent LokoliEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lokoli's ability to dominate weaker opponents and Blanchet's poor form make a straight-sets win likely.
- Lokoli has won 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Blanchet has lost 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Lokoli's superior return and break point conversion (50.4% vs 26.1%)
BetBugs · Set BettinglostLaurent Lokoli 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lokoli's strong form and straight-set wins reduce the chance of a tiebreak.
- Lokoli has played only 2 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
- Blanchet has played 6 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
- Lokoli's dominance reduces likelihood of close sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate ace counts, and the combined average is below the 8.5 line.
- Lokoli averages 2.1 aces per match in last 15
- Blanchet averages 5.0 aces per match in last 15
- Combined average 7.1 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is below the 5.5 line, suggesting a lower total.
- Lokoli averages 1.8 double faults per match in last 15
- Blanchet averages 2.9 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average 4.7 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L7-6(4) 7-5Ugo Blanchet#199vLaurent Lokoli#386Sep 5, 2023

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Ugo Blanchet

4W 11L

6-4 6-4#109Otto Virtanen

6-4 3-6 6-2#136Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-7(3) 6-2 7-5#897James Watt

6-4 4-6 7-6(4)#229Stefano Napolitano

6-7(3) 7-6(6) 7-6(3)#157Rei Sakamoto

6-3 6-3#308Oliver Tarvet

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-4#214Felix Gill

6-4 6-2#126Pablo Llamas Ruiz

4-6 7-6(9) 6-4#237Charles Broom

6-3 7-6(2)#600Pierre Delage

6-1 5-7 6-2#429Maxime Chazal

6-2 6-4#215Henri Squire

7-5 6-4#135Cristian Garin

6-3 6-4#341Marko Topo

6-1 6-4#346Oriol Roca Batalla

Laurent Lokoli

13W 2L

6-3 6-3#257Andrej Nedic

6-2 6-1#570Lorenzo Angelini

6-1 2-6 7-5—Samuele Seghetti

3-6 6-3 6-0#562Pierluigi Basile

6-3 6-3#728Daniele Rapagnetta

6-3 6-3—Denis Constantin Spiridon

6-1 6-4—Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

6-3 6-4—Mickael Kaouk

6-1 6-1—Martin Riu

6-3 6-1#595Yanis Ghazouani Durand

6-1 6-3#303Florent Bax

6-4 6-1#752Rodrigo Alujas

6-1 6-2—Matisse Martin

6-2 7-6(4)#893Mathieu Scaglia

3-6 6-3 6-2#281Dan Added

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

UBUgo BlanchetBlanchet

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Laurent LokoliLokoliLL

Laurent Lokoli carries the stronger recent form — Ugo Blanchet's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In50.8%+13.4pp64.2%

1st Serve Won72.7%+1.6pp71.1%

2nd Serve Won55.3%—56.0%

Aces / Match5.0+2.92.1

Double Faults / Match2.91.1 fewer1.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.8%+13.9pp47.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted26.1%+24.3pp50.4%

Break Pts Saved63.3%+1.0pp62.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.5%+7.8pp56.3%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

50.8%1st Serve In+13.4pp64.2%

72.7%1st Serve Won+1.6pp71.1%

55.3%2nd Serve Won—56.0%

5.0Aces / Match+2.92.1

2.9Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer1.8

Return · 0–1

33.8%Return Pts Won+13.9pp47.7%

Pressure · 1–1

26.1%Break Pts Converted+24.3pp50.4%

63.3%Break Pts Saved+1.0pp62.3%

Points · 0–1

48.5%Total Pts Won+7.8pp56.3%