FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Pierre Antoine Tailleu #1317France1Mathieu Scaglia #893France2

Sets 6-7 · 6-2 · 6-7Mon 7 Sept 2026, 09:30 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions4–450%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMathieu Scaglia · 424 places

Pierre Antoine Tailleu

France

French right-hander, born 30 August 2003, listed at 180 cm. No preferred surface is established here.

Current ranking: #1317
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Mathieu Scaglia

France

Scaglia, 27, is the right-hander in this matchup. He reached a career-high No. 748 in January 2023, and his professional match record is concentrated on hard courts.

Current ranking: #893
Peak ranking: #748 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 22:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Tailleu's superior recent form and clay-court record make him a value bet at 2.10, with a 58% win probability.

Expect a competitive match with over 21.5 total games and a likely tiebreak.

Context

Tailleu, a French right-hander, has spent most of his recent schedule on clay, where he has won 9 of 14 matches.
His only hard-court match in the last 15 was a three-set win over Alec Deckers, but that is a single data point. The lack of recent hard-court exposure makes his level on this surface uncertain, even though he won that match.
- Last 15 overall: 10-5 record, but only 1 match on hard court (1-0).
- Last 15 on clay: 9-5 record across 14 matches.
- Hard-court match: beat Alec Deckers 2-6 7-6(6) 6-3 on 2026-09-06.
Scaglia, ranked 893, has a career preference for hard courts with 104 wins compared to 24 on clay.
On hard courts in his last 15 matches, he has a 60% win rate and better serving numbers than on clay. That gives him a clearer recent baseline for this surface, though his overall form remains mixed.
- Last 15 on hard: 6-4 record, 51.4% total points won.
- Last 15 on clay: 2-3 record, 50.8% total points won.
- Career hard-court wins: 104 vs 24 on clay.
Both players are competing in the Cassis Challenger qualifying draw and won their first-round matches on the same day.
Tailleu beat Alec Deckers 2-6 7-6(6) 6-3, while Scaglia beat Amit Vales 4-6 6-2 7-6(1). Neither match was a retirement, so both enter this match with comparable recent match time and no obvious fatigue edge.
- Tailleu's last match: 2-6 7-6(6) 6-3 win over Deckers on 2026-09-06.
- Scaglia's last match: 4-6 6-2 7-6(1) win over Vales on 2026-09-06.
- Both matches were best-of-three and completed without retirement.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Tailleu's stronger recent form and better clay-court record give him the edge, though Scaglia's hard-court experience keeps it competitive.
- Tailleu last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Scaglia 8-7 (53.3%)
- Tailleu last15 clay record 9-5 (64.3%) vs Scaglia clay 2-3 (40%)
- Tailleu last15 first serve points won 71.3% vs Scaglia 71.7%
- Tailleu last15 break points saved 62.5% vs Scaglia 62.0%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPierre Antoine TailleuEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in long matches recently, and their combined average games per match exceeds 21.5.
- Tailleu last15 average games per match 23.4 (351 games / 15 matches)
- Scaglia last15 average games per match 25.7 (386 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players' recent set averages near or above 9.5 games.
- Tailleu last15 average games per set 10.0 (351 games / 35 sets)
- Scaglia last15 average games per set 9.4 (386 games / 41 sets)
- Both players have played several tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tailleu's better recent record suggests he may win by a small margin, but the handicap is risky given Scaglia's competitiveness.
- Tailleu last15 games won percentage 51.0%
- Scaglia last15 games won percentage 52.3%
- Tailleu last15 record 10-5 vs Scaglia 8-7
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostPierre Antoine Tailleu -1.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tailleu's recent momentum and solid first-set conversion rate support a slight edge in the opening set.
- Tailleu last15 first set win conversion 78% career
- Scaglia last15 first set win conversion 87% career
- Tailleu last15 overall record 10-5 vs Scaglia 8-7
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPierre Antoine TailleuEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the matchup and both players' tendency to play three-setters support the over.
- Tailleu last15 three-set matches: 6 of 15 (40%)
- Scaglia last15 three-set matches: 8 of 15 (53%)
- Both players have shown comeback ability in recent matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The closeness of the matchup and both players' tiebreak experience make a tiebreak likely.
- Tailleu last15 tiebreak win percentage 49% career
- Scaglia last15 tiebreak win percentage 48% career
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages of both players slightly exceed the 7.5 line, though variance is high.
- Tailleu last15 aces per match 3.8
- Scaglia last15 aces per match 4.2
- Combined average aces per match 8.0
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 4 double faults per match, making the over 7.5 a close call.
- Tailleu last15 double faults per match 4.1
- Scaglia last15 double faults per match 3.9
- Combined average double faults per match 8.0
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Pierre Antoine Tailleu

10W 5L

2-6 7-6(6) 6-3#542Alec Deckers

6-4 6-2—Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka

6-3 7-5#429Maxime Chazal

6-2 6-4#900Amaury Raynel

6-4 6-4—Tanguy Genier

6-2 6-3#638Alexander Ritschard

7-6(8) 5-7 6-1—Aren Baybars

7-6(5) 6-3—Daniele Minighini

6-0 7-6(3)—Leonardo Iemmi

6-4 6-2—Samuel Rovai

7-6(4) 6-4#562Pierluigi Basile

7-6(5) 5-7 7-6(5)#797Stefano D'Agostino

6-4 0-6 6-3#671Andrea De Marchi

6-4 3-6 6-2—Federico Guarducci

6-4 7-6(1)—Vito Dell'Elba

Mathieu Scaglia

8W 7L

4-6 6-2 7-6(1)#598Amit Vales

6-3 2-6 7-6(3)#600Pierre Delage

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2—Jaume Casas Blasi

6-3 3-6 6-0#1215Mohamed Nazim Makhlouf

4-6 6-2 6-2#474Pavel Lagutin

6-2 6-1#1516Abdulhamid Mubarak

4-6 6-4 6-2#644Maxwell Mckennon

6-1 6-1—Pablo Perez Navarro

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4—Ander Tarrio Ponte

2-6 6-4 7-6(4)#851Julio Cesar Porras

6-3 4-6 6-2—Nicholas Godsick

4-6 6-1 6-2#799Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez

4-6 6-4 7-5—Arthur Bellegy

6-2 7-6(4)#386Laurent Lokoli

6-4 6-4#786Benjamin Pietri

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PTPierre Antoine TailleuTailleu

Last 15

0–4

9 core stats · 5 even

Mathieu ScagliaScagliaMS

Mathieu Scaglia carries the stronger recent form — Pierre Antoine Tailleu's route runs through break pts converted.

Serve · 0–2 · 3 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1550.3%+10.0pp60.3%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1571.3%—71.7%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1549.3%—48.6%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.8+0.44.2

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/154.1—3.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1538.3%+1.3pp39.6%

Pressure · 0–0 · 2 even

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1541.8%—42.0%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1562.5%—62.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1549.5%+1.7pp51.2%

Serve · 0–2 · 3 even

50.3%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+10.0pp60.3%

71.3%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15—71.7%

49.3%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15—48.6%

3.8Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+0.44.2

4.1Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/15—3.9

Return · 0–1

38.3%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.3pp39.6%

Pressure · 0–0 · 2 even

41.8%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15—42.0%

62.5%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15—62.0%

Points · 0–1

49.5%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.7pp51.2%