FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Mathieu Scaglia #893France2Amit Vales #679Israel1

Sets 4-6 · 6-2 · 7-6Sun 6 Sept 2026, 11:30 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions7–188%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAmit Vales · 214 places

Mathieu Scaglia

France

Scaglia, 27, is the right-hander in this matchup. He reached a career-high No. 748 in January 2023, and his professional match record is concentrated on hard courts.

Current ranking: #893
Peak ranking: #748 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Amit Vales

Israel

Age 21, right-handed and 173 cm tall. The supplied profile lists him at No. 679; ranking history records a career-high No. 672 on 27 July 2026, with hard listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #679
Peak ranking: #672 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 02:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Scaglia's clay-court edge and stronger serve make him a value pick at 3.00 against Vales, who struggles on clay despite better hard-court form.

Expect a tight match with over 21.5 games and likely three sets. Avoid Vales at 1.35 due to his poor clay record.

Context

Vales, 598th, is a right-hander who has played most of his career on hard courts and is currently ranked about 300 places above Scaglia.
Vales has won 7 of his last 9 hard-court matches, including a run to a quarterfinal in August, while Scaglia has split his last 10 hard-court matches. Vales also returns serve better on hard courts, winning 49.3% of return points compared to Scaglia's 40.1%.
- Vales' last 9 hard-court matches: 7 wins, 2 losses (77.8% win rate).
- Scaglia's last 10 hard-court matches: 6 wins, 4 losses (60% win rate).
- Vales' hard-court return points won: 49.3% vs Scaglia's 40.1%.
Scaglia, 893rd, is a French right-hander who has played more on hard courts but has struggled for consistency in recent weeks.
Scaglia has lost three of his last five clay matches and his hard-court record over the last 15 is 6-4, with a modest 51.4% total points won. His serve has been vulnerable, with a 60.2% first-serve percentage and 4 double faults per match.
- Scaglia's last 5 clay matches: 2 wins, 3 losses.
- Scaglia's last 10 hard-court matches: 6 wins, 4 losses.
- Scaglia's overall last 15: 8 wins, 7 losses, 51.2% total points won.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.00
The read
Scaglia's superior clay form and Vales's weak clay record give Scaglia the edge despite Vales's better overall recent hard-court results.
- Scaglia last 15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%), Vales 9-6 (60%)
- Scaglia last 15 on Hard 6-4 (60%), Vales on Hard 7-2 (77.8%)
- Scaglia career Hard win% 103-? (surfaceWins hard 103), Vales career Hard 95 wins
- Scaglia ranking 893, Vales ranking 598
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMathieu ScagliaEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 22 games, and their hard-court matches average nearly 24 games, making over 21.5 likely.
- Scaglia last 15 average 22.5 games per match (198 games / 15 matches)
- Vales last 15 average 24.0 games per match (191 games / 15 matches)
- Scaglia last 15 on Hard average 23.9 games per match (127 games / 10 matches)
- Vales last 15 on Hard average 24.2 games per match (130 games / 9 matches)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Vales's strong hard-court form and competitive game totals make him likely to stay within 3.5 games of Scaglia.
- Scaglia last 15 average games won 13.2, Vales 12.7
- Scaglia last 15 on Hard average games won 12.7, Vales 14.4
- Vales last 15 on Hard record 7-2, Scaglia 6-4
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAmit Vales +3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent first sets average close to 10 games, indicating a competitive opening set.
- Scaglia last 15 first set average 9.6 games (144 games / 15 matches)
- Vales last 15 first set average 9.7 games (145 games / 15 matches)
- Scaglia last 15 on Hard first set average 9.8 games (98 games / 10 matches)
- Vales last 15 on Hard first set average 9.8 games (88 games / 9 matches)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players frequently go to three sets, with over half of their recent matches requiring a decider.
- Scaglia last 15: 8 three-set matches out of 15 (53.3%)
- Vales last 15: 9 three-set matches out of 15 (60%)
- Scaglia last 15 on Hard: 5 three-set matches out of 10 (50%)
- Vales last 15 on Hard: 5 three-set matches out of 9 (55.6%)
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Scaglia's stronger first serve and higher first-set conversion rate suggest he is slightly more likely to take the opening set.
- Scaglia first set win conversion 87% career, Vales 85%
- Scaglia last 15 first serve points won 71.6%, Vales 63.6%
- Scaglia last 15 on Hard first serve points won 71.1%, Vales 65.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMathieu ScagliaEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 4 double faults per match, making over 7.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Scaglia last 15 double faults per match 4.0, Vales 4.4
- Scaglia last 15 on Hard double faults per match 3.5, Vales 4.0
- Combined average double faults per match 8.4 overall, 7.5 on Hard
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Scaglia's ace rate pushes the combined total near the over line, though Vales's low ace count adds uncertainty.
- Scaglia last 15 aces per match 3.7, Vales 2.0
- Scaglia last 15 on Hard aces per match 3.7, Vales 1.4
- Combined average aces per match 5.7 overall, 5.1 on Hard
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have a moderate frequency of tiebreaks in recent matches, suggesting a coin-flip chance of at least one tiebreak.
- Scaglia career tiebreak win% 47%, Vales 52%
- Scaglia last 15: 4 tiebreaks in 15 matches (26.7%)
- Vales last 15: 5 tiebreaks in 15 matches (33.3%)
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Mathieu Scaglia

8W 7L

6-3 2-6 7-6(3)#600Pierre Delage

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2—Jaume Casas Blasi

6-3 3-6 6-0#1215Mohamed Nazim Makhlouf

4-6 6-2 6-2#474Pavel Lagutin

6-2 6-1#1516Abdulhamid Mubarak

4-6 6-4 6-2#644Maxwell Mckennon

6-1 6-1—Pablo Perez Navarro

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4—Ander Tarrio Ponte

2-6 6-4 7-6(4)#851Julio Cesar Porras

6-3 4-6 6-2—Nicholas Godsick

4-6 6-1 6-2#799Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez

4-6 6-4 7-5—Arthur Bellegy

6-2 7-6(4)#386Laurent Lokoli

6-4 6-4#786Benjamin Pietri

7-6(6) 6-2#343Lucas Poullain

Amit Vales

9W 6L

6-7(11) 6-4 6-2#721Ignacio Parisca

6-4 3-6 6-3—Vardan Manukyan

3-6 7-5 6-4#824Oskari Paldanius

1-6 6-4 6-1#806Arvid Nordquist

6-7(4) 6-1 6-3#791Demetris Azoides

6-2 4-6 6-3—Vesa Ahti

6-3 6-1—Zach Stephens

7-5 1-6 6-4#156Daniil Glinka

6-2 6-0#376Alex Martinez

4-6 7-5 6-2#617S D Prajwal Dev

6-4 6-2#880Kristjan Tamm

6-2 7-5#424Johan Nikles

6-1 6-2#369Norbert Gombos

6-3 3-6 6-4—Andrin Casanova

6-4 6-4#532Ryan Nijboer

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MSMathieu ScagliaScaglia

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Amit ValesValesAV

Mathieu Scaglia carries the stronger recent form — Amit Vales's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.2%+1.9pp58.3%

1st Serve Won71.6%+8.0pp63.6%

2nd Serve Won47.9%—47.8%

Aces / Match3.7+1.72.0

Double Faults / Match4.00.4 fewer4.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.9%+5.7pp45.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.7%+3.2pp43.9%

Break Pts Saved63.3%+10.1pp53.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.2%—51.3%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

60.2%1st Serve In+1.9pp58.3%

71.6%1st Serve Won+8.0pp63.6%

47.9%2nd Serve Won—47.8%

3.7Aces / Match+1.72.0

4.0Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer4.4

Return · 0–1

39.9%Return Pts Won+5.7pp45.6%

Pressure · 1–1

40.7%Break Pts Converted+3.2pp43.9%

63.3%Break Pts Saved+10.1pp53.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.2%Total Pts Won—51.3%