AustriaTulln - AustriaFinished

Predictions graded

Oleg Prihodko #404Ukraine0Daniel Siniakov #467Czechia2

Sets 2-6 · 4-6Mon 7 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions0–70%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOleg Prihodko · 63 places

Oleg Prihodko

Ukraine

Born 3 October 1997. His career-high singles ranking is No. 307, achieved on 18 August 2025.

Current ranking: #404
Peak ranking: #307 · 2025
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Daniel Siniakov

Czechia

Born January 15, 2003. Public profile sources list a career-high singles ranking of No. 438 on July 13, 2026 and identify hard court as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #467
Peak ranking: #438 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 22:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Prihodko's superior recent form and clay-court consistency make him the clear favorite against Siniakov.

Back Prihodko on the moneyline at 1.70 for a small edge, and consider over 21.5 total games as a secondary play.

Context

Prihodko, 411th, is a clay-court specialist with 313 career wins on the surface. Siniakov, 503rd, has a more modest clay record.
Prihodko's recent clay results are clearly better: 10-5 versus Siniakov's 6-9. However, Siniakov's serve numbers are slightly stronger, so the match may be closer than the win-loss gap suggests.
- Prihodko last 15 on clay: 10-5 record, 66.7% win rate.
- Siniakov last 15 on clay: 6-9 record, 40% win rate.
- Prihodko's last 5 matches: 3 wins, 2 losses; Siniakov's last 5: 1 win, 4 losses.
Siniakov's first serve has been a reliable weapon on clay, landing 71.8% of first serves in his last 15 matches.
Siniakov's first-serve percentage (71.8%) and first-serve points won (69.4%) are better than Prihodko's (58.1% and 73.7% respectively). This could help Siniakov hold serve more easily, but Prihodko's return game is stronger.
- Siniakov first serve in: 71.8% vs Prihodko 58.1%.
- Siniakov first serve points won: 69.4% vs Prihodko 73.7%.
- Siniakov return points won: 39.7% vs Prihodko 41.3%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Prihodko's stronger recent form and better clay results in the same 15-match window give him a clear edge in this Bo3 qualifier.
- Last 15 overall record: Prihodko 66.7% (10-5) vs Siniakov 40% (6-9)
- Last 15 clay record: Prihodko 66.7% (10-5) vs Siniakov 40% (6-9)
- Prihodko last 5: 3-2, including a win over #476 Gakhov; Siniakov last 5: 1-4, with losses to #573 Wehnelt and #448 Krutykh
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOleg PrihodkoEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in extended matches recently, and Siniakov's longer average duration suggests a competitive contest.
- Prihodko last 15 average games per match: 22.5; Siniakov: 23.9
- Siniakov last 15 average match duration: 123.1 minutes vs Prihodko 106.3
- Siniakov has played 5 three-set matches in last 15; Prihodko has played 6
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be tight given both players' recent first-set statistics and tiebreak frequency.
- Siniakov last 15 first-set average games: 10.1; Prihodko: 9.3
- Siniakov has played 4 first-set tiebreaks in last 15; Prihodko has played 3
- Both players have first-set win rates below 55% in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Prihodko's superior serve and return numbers in the recent window support him taking the opening set.
- Prihodko first-set win conversion career: 88%; Siniakov: 84%
- Prihodko last 15 first serve points won: 73.7%; Siniakov: 69.4%
- Prihodko last 15 return points won: 41.3%; Siniakov: 39.7%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostOleg PrihodkoEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches suggests at least one tiebreak is likely.
- Siniakov has played 7 tiebreaks in last 15 matches; Prihodko has played 5
- Siniakov career tiebreak win percentage: 57%; Prihodko: 53%
- Both players have multiple recent matches decided by tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Prihodko's high ace rate and Siniakov's moderate ace count make over 9.5 total aces likely.
- Prihodko last 15 aces per match: 6.5; Siniakov: 4.1
- Combined average aces per match: 10.6
- Prihodko has hit 98 aces in last 15 matches; Siniakov 62
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 2.9 double faults per match, making over 5.5 total double faults a reasonable expectation.
- Prihodko last 15 double faults per match: 2.9; Siniakov: 3.3
- Combined average double faults per match: 6.2
- Siniakov has 49 double faults in last 15 matches; Prihodko 43
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance53%

Prediction history

Oleg Prihodko has been unreliable when projected to win

Oleg Prihodko has fulfilled 2 of 5 recent win projections. The average estimated probability was 65.8%, but only 40% of those predictions matched. All three misses were losses, with no draws or wins.

Recent evidence for Oleg Prihodko5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#704Matyas Fuele2-1#400Oleg Prihodko

BetBugsOleg Prihodko to win·72%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#704Matyas Fuele2-1#400Oleg Prihodko

Oleg Prihodko to win

72%probability

Matyas Fuele won

Missed

7 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#428Oleg Prihodko0-2#253Alex Barrena

BetBugsOleg Prihodko to win·55%

Missed

7 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#428Oleg Prihodko0-2#253Alex Barrena

Oleg Prihodko to win

55%probability

Alex Barrena won

Missed

6 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#428Oleg Prihodko2-1#650Giovanni Oradini

BetBugsOleg Prihodko to win·62%

Matched

6 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#428Oleg Prihodko2-1#650Giovanni Oradini

Oleg Prihodko to win

62%probability

Oleg Prihodko won

Matched

5 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#428Oleg Prihodko2-0#809Lorenzo Rottoli

BetBugsOleg Prihodko to win·78%

Matched

5 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#428Oleg Prihodko2-0#809Lorenzo Rottoli

Oleg Prihodko to win

78%probability

Oleg Prihodko won

Matched

1 Jun·Prostejov - Czech Republic

#399Oleg Prihodko1-2#679Jan Kumstat

BetBugsOleg Prihodko to win·62%

Missed

1 Jun 2026

Prostejov - Czech Republic

#399Oleg Prihodko1-2#679Jan Kumstat

Oleg Prihodko to win

62%probability

Jan Kumstat won

Missed

Previous match context available

Oleg Prihodko

10W 5L

4-6 6-3 6-2#476Ivan Gakhov 7-5 6-7(5) 6-1#212Maxim Mrva

6-3 0-6 7-5#900Filip Pieczonka

6-1 6-1—Uladzislau Tarasevich

6-1 7-5#355Tiago Pereira

6-1 6-4#302Daniel Michalski

7-6(5) 3-6 6-2#590Imanol Lopez Morillo

7-6(4) 6-2—Adam Majchrzak

6-1 6-2—Lorenzo Berto

4-6 6-2 7-5#554Matyas Fuele

6-4 6-1—Gabriele Crivellaro

6-1 6-3—Alessio Balestrieri

6-4 6-4#235Alex Barrena

6-4 3-6 7-5#637Giovanni Oradini

6-3 7-6(4)#899Lorenzo Rottoli

Daniel Siniakov

6W 9L

7-6(6) 6-3#430Niels Visker 7-6(2) 3-6 7-6(10)#392Georgii Kravchenko

7-6(5) 7-6(3)#573Kai Wehnelt

6-3 6-4#448Oleksii Krutykh

6-4 6-4#673Tim Handel

5-7 6-3 6-2#879William Rejchtman Vinciguerra

6-3 6-0—Jonas Kucera

6-4 1-6 6-3#338Raphael Perot

6-7(7) 6-0 6-2#826Liam Gavrielides

7-5 6-1#865Lasse Poertner

4-6 6-4 6-4#870Manuel Plunger

2-6 7-6(5) 6-3#636Adrian Oetzbach

6-3 6-2—David Fix

5-7 6-1 6-2#858Calvin Mueller

6-1 6-4#387Max Wiskandt

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OPOleg PrihodkoPrihodko

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Daniel SiniakovSiniakovDS

Oleg Prihodko carries the stronger recent form — Daniel Siniakov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In58.1%+13.7pp71.8%

1st Serve Won73.7%+4.3pp69.4%

2nd Serve Won50.1%+1.5pp48.6%

Aces / Match6.5+2.44.1

Double Faults / Match2.90.4 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.3%+1.6pp39.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.7%+9.3pp38.4%

Break Pts Saved60.2%+1.1pp61.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.7%+1.4pp51.3%

Serve · 4–1

58.1%1st Serve In+13.7pp71.8%

73.7%1st Serve Won+4.3pp69.4%

50.1%2nd Serve Won+1.5pp48.6%

6.5Aces / Match+2.44.1

2.9Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

41.3%Return Pts Won+1.6pp39.7%

Pressure · 1–1

47.7%Break Pts Converted+9.3pp38.4%

60.2%Break Pts Saved+1.1pp61.3%

Points · 1–0

52.7%Total Pts Won+1.4pp51.3%