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Predictions graded

Kaito Uesugi #897Japan0Ji Sung Nam #768South Korea2

Sets 2-6 · 5-7Mon 7 Sept 2026, 09:20 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions5–183%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJisung Nam · 129 places

Kaito Uesugi

Japan

Uesugi, 31, is right-handed and 180 cm. His listed preferred surface is hard; his career-high singles ranking was No. 650 in August 2018.

Current ranking: #897
Peak ranking: #650 · 2018
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Jisung Nam

South Korea

Nam, 33, is a right-hander whose ITF profile lists hard as his preferred surface. His highest singles ranking was No. 236 in August 2019.

Current ranking: #768
Peak ranking: #236 · 2019
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 22:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Ji Sung Nam holds a clear edge over Kaito Uesugi based on superior recent form, hard-court record, and a previous H2H win.

Nam's stronger serve and return game should lead to a straight-sets victory, but the odds on Nam to win the match offer no value. The total games over 21.5 is a slight lean, but overall this match presents limited betting opportunities.

Context

Uesugi, 897th, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and has struggled on hard courts this season.
His last-15 hard-court sample shows a 10% win rate, 21.7% sets won, and only 35.6% return points won. That suggests he will struggle to hold serve and create break chances against Nam.
- Uesugi's last-15 hard-court record is 1-9 (10% win rate).
- He has won only 21.7% of sets on hard courts in that span.
- His return points won on hard courts is 35.6%, below his overall 35.6%.
Nam, 768th, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and has more career hard-court success than Uesugi.
Nam's last-15 hard-court sample shows a 40% win rate and 40.6% return points won, which is better than Uesugi's 35.6%. However, Nam's first-serve percentage is only 59.3%, so he may give Uesugi some opportunities.
- Nam's last-15 hard-court record is 4-6 (40% win rate).
- His return points won on hard courts is 40.6%, higher than Uesugi's 35.6%.
- Nam's first-serve percentage on hard courts is 59.3%.
The two players met once before, in May 2024 on hard court.
Nam won 4-6, 6-0, 6-2, and his return points won was 53% compared to Uesugi's 36%. That pattern could repeat if Uesugi's serve remains vulnerable.
- H2H: Nam defeated Uesugi 4-6, 6-0, 6-2 on hard court in 2024.
- In that match, Nam won 53% of return points while Uesugi won 36%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Ji Sung Nam

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Nam's superior recent form, hard-court record, and H2H win give him a clear edge over Uesugi.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Nam's superior recent form, hard-court record, and H2H win give him a clear edge over Uesugi.
- Ji Sung Nam has a 40% win rate in last 15 overall (6-9) vs Kaito Uesugi's 13.3% (2-13).
- On hard courts in last 15, Nam is 4-6 (40%) while Uesugi is 1-9 (10%).
- Nam won their only H2H meeting on hard court in 2024 (4-6 6-0 6-2).
- Nam's return points won on hard is 40.6% vs Uesugi's 35.6%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJi Sung NamEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average around 22 games, suggesting a competitive match with over 21.5 games.
- Uesugi's last 15 matches average 22.3 games per match.
- Nam's last 15 matches average 21.5 games per match.
- Their H2H match had 24 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be close, with both players' recent first sets averaging near 10 games.
- Uesugi's recent first sets average 9.8 games.
- Nam's recent first sets average 9.3 games.
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nam's stronger serve and better recent first-set performance make him the likely set 1 winner.
- Nam's first set win conversion career is 85% vs Uesugi's 77%.
- Nam has won 5 of his last 15 first sets, while Uesugi has won only 2.
- Nam's first serve points won on hard is 69.4% vs Uesugi's 65.1%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJi Sung NamEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Uesugi's high double fault rate pushes the combined total above 6.5.
- Uesugi averages 4.1 double faults per match in last 15.
- Nam averages 2.7 double faults per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 6.8 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 3.8 aces per match, making over 7.5 total aces a near coin flip.
- Uesugi averages 3.8 aces per match in last 15.
- Nam averages 3.7 aces per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 7.5 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L4-6 6-0 6-2Kaito Uesugi#897vJi Sung Nam#768May 14, 2024

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Kaito Uesugi

2W 13L

6-7(5) 7-6(3) 6-4#483Koki Matsuda

6-4 6-3#488Luca Potenza

6-1 3-6 6-3#572Maxime Janvier

0-6 6-2 6-2#892Yuta Kikuchi

6-7(5) 6-1 6-2#763Uisung Park

6-3 6-3#398Masamichi Imamura

7-6(5) 7-6(3)#486Kasidit Samrej

7-6(7) 6-3#629Ramkumar Ramanathan

6-1 6-7(4) 3-2 ret.#628Tsung-Hao Huang

6-2 6-3#897James Watt

6-4 7-6(3)#276Philip Henning

6-3 6-3#343Lucas Poullain

6-2 6-2#270Hynek Barton

6-3 6-2#159Clement Tabur

6-4 7-6(1)#802Antoine Escoffier

Ji Sung Nam

6W 9L

7-6(0) 6-2#755Joshua Charlton

6-4 6-3#506Dominik Palan

6-4 6-4#186Jan Kumstat

7-5 6-4#386Laurent Lokoli

6-3 6-2#442Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-4 6-2#216Braden Shick

6-4 6-4#892Yuta Kikuchi

6-2 6-4#548Takuya Kumasaka

6-3 6-4#390Marek Gengel

1-6 7-6(6) 6-4#539Kokoro Isomura

6-4 6-4#310Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

6-0 6-1—Nathan Trouve

6-7(8) 6-4 7-6(6)#270Hynek Barton

6-4 5-7 6-4#324Duje Ajdukovic

6-2 6-3#628Tsung-Hao Huang

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KUKaito UesugiUesugi

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Ji Sung NamNamJN

Ji Sung Nam carries the stronger recent form — Kaito Uesugi's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.4%+2.9pp57.5%

1st Serve Won64.7%+4.9pp69.6%

2nd Serve Won47.0%+3.8pp50.8%

Aces / Match3.8—3.7

Double Faults / Match4.11.4 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.6%+3.1pp38.7%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted29.5%+10.1pp39.6%

Break Pts Saved54.1%—54.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won46.9%+2.9pp49.8%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

60.4%1st Serve In+2.9pp57.5%

64.7%1st Serve Won+4.9pp69.6%

47.0%2nd Serve Won+3.8pp50.8%

3.8Aces / Match—3.7

4.1Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

35.6%Return Pts Won+3.1pp38.7%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

29.5%Break Pts Converted+10.1pp39.6%

54.1%Break Pts Saved—54.0%

Points · 0–1

46.9%Total Pts Won+2.9pp49.8%