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Predictions graded

Anastasia Potapova #27Austria2Amanda Anisimova #10United States0

Sets 6-2 · 7-5Sat 5 Sept 2026, 15:05 Predictions gradedGrand Slam

Predictions3–633%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAmanda Anisimova · 17 places

Anastasia Potapova

Austria

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 21 on June 19, 2023. The ITF lists grass as her preferred surface, and the WTA records three career singles titles.

Current ranking: #27
Peak ranking: #21 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Amanda Anisimova

United States

Anisimova is a 24-year-old American right-hander who reached career-high No. 3 in January 2026. Her prior Rome wrist withdrawal was in May 2026 and is not treated as a current fitness alert.

Current ranking: #10
Peak ranking: #3 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 22:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Anisimova's superior form and serve make her the likely winner, but the odds offer no value.

Potapova +3.5 games is the best betting angle, with a 13.6-point edge. Expect a close match with potential for three sets and over 21.5 total games.

Context

Anisimova, ranked No. 10, has been a consistent top-20 player this season with a 16-8 hard-court record in 2026.
Her recent hard-court results include wins over top-20 opponents Linda Noskova and Alexandra Eala, and a tight three-set loss to world No. 3 Jessica Pegula. Potapova's hard-court form is more mixed, with losses to Sloane Stephens and Elina Svitolina in her last five matches on the surface. This suggests Anisimova is better positioned to control rallies from the baseline.
- Anisimova's last 7 hard-court matches: 5 wins, 2 losses (71.4% win rate).
- Potapova's last 5 hard-court matches: 2 wins, 3 losses (40% win rate).
- Anisimova defeated Noskova (No. 6) and Eala (No. 18) in her last two hard-court wins.
Potapova, the WTA No. 25 and right-hander, entered the US Open after back problems in the lead-in but completed her 2 September opener without a reported restriction.
The back issue is a reported concern, not a confirmed current limitation, and her completed first-round match suggests she is available. It still adds some uncertainty about her physical condition for this second-round contest.
- Back problems were recorded before Flushing Meadows, with no restriction identified during the completed first-round match on 2 September.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ReportedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 22:27 · Europe/BucharestÖTV: US Open: Potapova mit sicherem Auftaktsieg über Lucky Loserinoetv.at · 2 Sep 2026
Potapova, ranked No. 25, has a career clay-court win percentage of 58.6% compared to 50.4% on hard courts.
Her recent clay results include a win over world No. 4 Coco Gauff, but on hard courts she has struggled against top-20 opponents, losing to Svitolina and Shnaider. This surface gap could be a factor if the match extends to longer rallies, where Potapova's clay-court patience may not be as effective on the faster US Open surface.
- Potapova's last 4 clay matches: 3 wins, 1 loss (75% win rate).
- Potapova's last 7 hard matches: 4 wins, 3 losses (57.1% win rate).
- Potapova beat Gauff (No. 4) on clay in May 2026.
Anisimova's first-serve percentage is 60.4% on hard courts in her last 7 matches, while Potapova's is 51.1% in her last 6.
Anisimova wins 65.7% of first-serve points and 47.6% of return points on hard courts, compared to Potapova's 66.9% and 43.3% respectively. The return gap is notable: Anisimova puts more pressure on Potapova's second serve, which could lead to more break opportunities.
- Anisimova's hard-court first-serve points won: 65.7% (last 7 matches).
- Potapova's hard-court first-serve points won: 66.9% (last 6 matches).
- Anisimova's hard-court return points won: 47.6% vs Potapova's 43.3%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Amanda Anisimova

1.25fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Anisimova's stronger recent form and hard-court metrics justify favoritism, but the odds overstate her probability relative to the model estimate.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Amanda Anisimova

1.36fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Anisimova's superior serve and return numbers in the recent window should help her start fast, though Potapova's current tournament momentum narrows the gap.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Anisimova's stronger recent form, higher ranking, and better hard-court metrics give her a clear edge, though Potapova's two wins this week keep it from being a lock.
- Anisimova last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), Potapova 8-7 (53.3%)
- Anisimova last 15 hard record 5-2 (71.4%), Potapova 4-3 (57.1%)
- Anisimova last 15 total points won 53.8%, Potapova 48.8%
- Anisimova ranking 10 vs Potapova ranking 25
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAmanda AnisimovaEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Potapova's current form and competitive spirit should keep the match close enough to cover a +3.5 game handicap.
- Potapova last 15 games won 49.2%, Anisimova 57.5%
- Potapova has won two matches this tournament in straight sets
- Anisimova's recent losses have been close, including a three-setter to Pegula
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAnastasia Potapova +3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to be competitive with both players capable of holding serve, and the recent stats suggest a moderate total games count.
- Potapova last 15 average 89.8 minutes per match, Anisimova 96.2
- Potapova last 15 games won 49.2%, Anisimova 57.5%
- Both players have similar break point conversion rates around 48-54%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive with both players holding serve, leading to a total over 9.5 games.
- Potapova first set average games 9.3 in last 15, Anisimova 9.5
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages
- Anisimova's first set win conversion is high, but Potapova can push games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second set is also expected to be close, with both players capable of extending games.
- Potapova second set average games 9.1 in last 15, Anisimova 9.4
- Both players have similar second serve points won percentages
- Anisimova's second set performance has been strong recently
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Anisimova's superior serve and return numbers in the recent window should help her start fast, though Potapova's current tournament momentum narrows the gap.
- Anisimova first set win conversion 84% career, Potapova 84%
- Anisimova last 15 first serve points won 67.7%, Potapova 64%
- Anisimova last 15 return points won 46.1%, Potapova 44.8%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAmanda AnisimovaEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Anisimova's serve is a weapon and Potapova can also produce aces, making over 6.5 total aces a reasonable expectation.
- Anisimova last 15 aces per match 4.1, Potapova 2.1
- Combined average aces per match 6.2
- Anisimova has hit 3.1 aces per match on hard courts recently
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double fault rates, and the pressure of a Grand Slam match could push the total over 8.5.
- Both players average 4.9 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average double faults per match 9.8
- Potapova has 4.8 double faults per match on hard courts recently
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Anisimova is heavily favored, but the price offers no value given the model's lower probability estimate.

Prediction history

Amanda Anisimova has been highly reliable when projected to win

Amanda Anisimova has fulfilled 5 of 7 recent win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 72.1% and an expected 5.1 fulfilled predictions. Her matched predictions averaged 75% probability, while missed predictions averaged 65%, indicating stronger confidence in successful outcomes. The current prediction of 62% is below her historical range of 65-88%, suggesting a lower-confidence scenario than typical for her wins.

Recent evidence for Amanda Anisimova7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

2 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#6Amanda Anisimova2-1#105Sofia Kenin

BetBugsAmanda Anisimova to win·72%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#6Amanda Anisimova2-1#105Sofia Kenin

Amanda Anisimova to win

72%probability

Amanda Anisimova won

Matched

30 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#6Amanda Anisimova2-0#223Lina Gjorcheska

BetBugsAmanda Anisimova to win·88%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#6Amanda Anisimova2-0#223Lina Gjorcheska

Amanda Anisimova to win

88%probability

Amanda Anisimova won

Matched

12 Jun·WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-1#5Amanda Anisimova

BetBugsAmanda Anisimova to win·65%

Missed

12 Jun 2026

WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-1#5Amanda Anisimova

Amanda Anisimova to win

65%probability

Iva Jovic won

Missed

10 Jun·WTA London

#44Laura Siegemund0-2#5Amanda Anisimova

BetBugsAmanda Anisimova to win·65%

Matched

10 Jun 2026

WTA London

#44Laura Siegemund0-2#5Amanda Anisimova

Amanda Anisimova to win

65%probability

Amanda Anisimova won

Matched

30 May·WTA Roland Garros

#92Diane Parry2-1#6Amanda Anisimova

BetBugsAmanda Anisimova to win·65%

Missed

30 May 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#92Diane Parry2-1#6Amanda Anisimova

Amanda Anisimova to win

65%probability

Diane Parry won

Missed

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

L6-2 7-5Anastasia Potapova#25vAmanda Anisimova#10May 11, 2019

W6-7(7) 7-5 6-2Anastasia Potapova#25vAmanda Anisimova#10Mar 5, 2017

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Anastasia Potapova

8W 7L

6-4 2-6 6-3#127Leolia Jeanjean

6-2 6-2#109Darja Semenistaja

6-2 6-4#209Sloane Stephens

6-1 6-1#9Elina Svitolina

6-4 6-2#64Elena Gabriela Ruse

6-1 6-2#16Diana Shnaider

6-3 6-3#618Venus Williams

6-2 6-3#105Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

6-1 ret.#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-1 2-0 ret.#53Zeynep Sonmez

6-7(5) 6-4 6-4#164Suzan Lamens

6-4 2-6 7-6(7)#23Anna Kalinskaya

4-6 7-6(1) 6-4#4Cori Gauff

5-7 6-4 6-2#62Katie Boulter

6-1 6-2#72Maya Joint

Amanda Anisimova

10W 5L

6-1 6-3#60Ashlyn Krueger

6-4 2-6 7-6(4)#3Jessica Pegula

6-1 6-4#6Linda Noskova

4-6 6-4 6-2#18Alexandra Eala

6-2 6-3#53Zeynep Sonmez

6-2 6-4#9Elina Svitolina

3-6 6-0 6-4#34Nikola Bartunkova

3-6 6-2 6-3#24Madison Keys

6-2 4-6 7-6(3)#110Sofia Kenin

6-3 6-2#257Lina Gjorcheska

6-2 3-6 6-3#14Iva Jovic

6-1 6-3#102Laura Siegemund

6-3 4-6 7-6(3)#31Diane Parry

6-0 ret.#112Julia Grabher

6-3 6-1#172Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

APAnastasia PotapovaPotapova

Last 15

0–8

9 core stats · 1 even

Amanda AnisimovaAnisimovaAA

Amanda Anisimova carries the stronger recent form — Anastasia Potapova's route runs through double faults / match.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1550.0%+13.4pp63.4%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1564.0%+3.7pp67.7%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1541.2%+8.9pp50.1%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/152.1+2.04.1

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/154.9—4.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1544.8%+1.3pp46.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1548.6%+5.2pp53.8%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1551.4%+9.6pp61.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1548.8%+5.0pp53.8%

Shot making · 1–1 · 1 evenLimited data · 6 vs 7

Winners / Match6/15 · 7/1523.0—23.0

Unforced Errors / Match6/15 · 7/1536.86.9 fewer29.9

Net Pts Won6/15 · 7/1570.0%+5.5pp64.5%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

50.0%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+13.4pp63.4%

64.0%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.7pp67.7%

41.2%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+8.9pp50.1%

2.1Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+2.04.1

4.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/15—4.9

Return · 0–1

44.8%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.3pp46.1%

Pressure · 0–2

48.6%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+5.2pp53.8%

51.4%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+9.6pp61.0%

Points · 0–1

48.8%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+5.0pp53.8%

Shot making · 1–1 · 1 evenLimited data · 6 vs 7

23.0Winners6/15 · 7/15—23.0

36.8Unforced Errors6/15 · 7/156.9 fewer29.9

70.0%Net Pts Won6/15 · 7/15+5.5pp64.5%

Anastasia Potapova

Amanda Anisimova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Anastasia Potapova +3.5

Amanda Anisimova

Amanda Anisimova

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Amanda Anisimova @ 1.25

Head-to-Head

Anastasia Potapova

Amanda Anisimova

Stat Battle