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Predictions graded

Madison Keys #23United States2Anna Bondar #77Hungary1

Sets 5-7 · 6-4 · 7-6Thu 3 Sept 2026, 15:04 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions7–188%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMadison Keys · 54 places

Madison Keys

United States

Keys lists hard court as her favorite surface and serve as her favorite shot. She reached career-high No. 5 in February 2025.

Current ranking: #23
Peak ranking: #5 · 2025
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Anna Bondar

Hungary

Reached a career-high No. 50 on 18 July 2022. Her strongest documented singles results are concentrated on clay, including multiple Hamburg finals.

Current ranking: #77
Peak ranking: #50 · 2022
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 03:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Madison Keys is a strong favorite over Anna Bondar, with superior form, a better hard-court record, and a direct H2H win.

The best betting value is on over 20.5 total games and over 9.5 games in the first set, while the match winner market on Keys is overpriced. Avoid Keys -6.5 game handicap and Bondar to win the first set.

Context

Keys, ranked 24, is a former U.S. Open finalist and has a strong hard-court record this season.
Her recent hard-court form is solid, with wins over top-50 players like Siniakova and Snigur, and she beat Bondar 6-2 7-5 on clay in April. Bondar has struggled against higher-ranked opponents on hard courts, losing to Bucsa and Mertens in straight sets. This suggests Keys should control the match, though Bondar's fighting spirit could make it competitive.
- Keys' last 15 hard-court record: 5-3 (62.5% win rate).
- Bondar's last 15 hard-court record: 4-3 (57.1% win rate).
- Keys defeated Bondar 6-2 7-5 in their only meeting in April 2026.
Bondar, ranked 73, has built her ranking primarily on clay, with 17 wins on that surface in 2026.
On hard courts, her first-serve percentage drops to 52.1% and she has lost to top-50 players like Bucsa and Mertens. Keys' powerful serve and aggressive baseline game could exploit Bondar's weaker hard-court serving. However, Bondar's recent win over Kalinina shows she can compete on hard courts.
- Bondar's 2026 clay record: 17-8; hard record: 10-10.
- Bondar's hard-court first-serve percentage in last 15: 52.1%.
- Bondar lost to Bucsa (rank 40) and Mertens (rank 20) on hard courts in August.
Keys' serve is a major weapon, with a career first-serve points won percentage of 69%.
In her last 15 hard-court matches, Keys has won 71% of first-serve points, while Bondar has won only 41.8% of return points on hard courts. This mismatch could lead to easy holds for Keys and pressure on Bondar's serve. However, Bondar's break point conversion rate of 50% on hard courts suggests she can capitalize on opportunities.
- Keys' hard-court first-serve points won: 71%.
- Bondar's hard-court return points won: 41.8%.
- Bondar's hard-court break point conversion: 50%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Madison Keys

1.12fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 89.3%

0.0ppshort

Keys has superior recent form, a stronger hard-court pedigree, and a direct H2H win, making her the clear favorite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Keys has superior recent form, a stronger hard-court pedigree, and a direct H2H win, making her the clear favorite.
- Keys last15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Bondar 9-6 (60%)
- Keys hard-court last15 record 5-3 (62.5%), Bondar hard-court last15 record 4-3 (57.1%)
- Keys career hard-court win% 64.7%, Bondar 62.5% overall but only 103 hard wins vs 341 clay wins
- H2H: Keys won 6-2 7-5 on clay in April 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMadison KeysEstimated chance78%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 20.5 games, and Bondar's longer matches suggest a competitive contest.
- Keys last15 average games per match 21.6 (324 games / 15 matches)
- Bondar last15 average games per match 24.7 (371 games / 15 matches)
- Keys last15 average duration 99.6 min, Bondar 132 min
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.38
The read
Both players' first sets average around 10 games, supporting an over on 9.5.
- Keys last15 first-set average games 9.9 (149 games / 15 matches)
- Bondar last15 first-set average games 10.1 (141 games / 14 matches)
- Keys first-serve points won 73.8%, Bondar 62.4%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been similarly competitive, though confidence is lower due to variability.
- Keys last15 second-set average games 9.7 (145 games / 15 matches)
- Bondar last15 second-set average games 10.3 (144 games / 14 matches)
- Keys second-serve points won 49.5%, Bondar 50.1%
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Keys' stronger serve and comparable return game give her an edge in the opening set.
- Keys first-set win conversion 87% career, Bondar 86%
- Keys last15 first-serve points won 73.8%, Bondar 62.4%
- Keys last15 return points won 42.8%, Bondar 44.4%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMadison KeysEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Keys' superior break-point saving and overall consistency should carry her through the second set.
- Keys last15 second-serve points won 49.5%, Bondar 50.1%
- Keys last15 break points saved 66.3%, Bondar 56.4%
- Keys last15 break points converted 40.3%, Bondar 45.4%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMadison KeysEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Keys' strong serve and Bondar's moderate ace count push the combined total near the over line.
- Keys last15 aces per match 4.6, Bondar 2.6
- Keys hard-court last15 aces per match 5.5, Bondar hard-court last15 aces per match 3.5
- Combined average aces per match 7.2
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault averages are just above the line, but variance is high.
- Keys last15 double faults per match 4.0, Bondar 2.8
- Keys hard-court last15 double faults per match 4.9, Bondar hard-court last15 double faults per match 3.5
- Combined average double faults per match 6.8
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Madison Keys has been highly reliable when projected to win

Madison Keys has fulfilled 12 of 15 win predictions, a strong 80% success rate. Her average estimated probability in those matches was 72.2%, and she outperformed expectations by 1.2 wins. Notably, all three misses came when she was the underdog or in close matchups, while her wins often featured probabilities above 70%.

Recent evidence for Madison Keys15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·WTA Washington

#69Liudmila Samsonova2-1#23Madison Keys

BetBugsMadison Keys to win·72%

Missed

28 Jul 2026

WTA Washington

#69Liudmila Samsonova2-1#23Madison Keys

Madison Keys to win

72%probability

Liudmila Samsonova won

Missed

6 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#22Madison Keys0-2#12Linda Noskova

BetBugsMadison Keys to win·55%

Missed

6 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#22Madison Keys0-2#12Linda Noskova

Madison Keys to win

55%probability

Linda Noskova won

Missed

4 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#6Amanda Anisimova1-2#22Madison Keys

BetBugsMadison Keys to win·58%

Matched

4 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#6Amanda Anisimova1-2#22Madison Keys

Madison Keys to win

58%probability

Madison Keys won

Matched

2 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#196Katie Swan0-2#22Madison Keys

BetBugsMadison Keys to win·82%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#196Katie Swan0-2#22Madison Keys

Madison Keys to win

82%probability

Madison Keys won

Matched

30 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#138Kayla Day1-2#27Madison Keys

BetBugsMadison Keys to win·85%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#138Kayla Day1-2#27Madison Keys

Madison Keys to win

85%probability

Madison Keys won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-2 7-5Madison Keys#24vAnna Bondar#73Apr 2, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Madison Keys

11W 4L

7-5 6-4#69Alina Korneeva

3-6 6-4 7-6(5)#30Sara Bejlek

7-6(3) 6-4#80Xiyu Wang

6-1 6-3#42Katerina Siniakova

4-6 6-3 6-3#45Daria Snigur

6-3 6-1#11Marta Kostyuk

6-1 6-2#85Antonia Ruzic

3-6 6-4 6-4#47Liudmila Samsonova

6-4 7-6(2)#6Linda Noskova

3-6 6-2 6-3#10Amanda Anisimova

6-1 6-4#207Katie Swan

6-7(5) 6-4 6-3#117Kayla Day

7-5 6-4#83Tatjana Maria

6-1 ret.#77Petra Marcinko

6-3 6-1#66Mccartney Kessler

Anna Bondar

9W 6L

6-3 6-3#226Lucie Havlickova

6-4 6-3#40Cristina Bucsa

6-3 4-6 6-1#289En Shuo Liang

6-3 6-3#114Elsa Jacquemot

6-3 7-6(5)#105Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

3-6 6-4 6-4#20Elise Mertens

6-4 7-5#51Anhelina Kalinina

6-3 6-3#48Tamara Korpatsch

7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(2)#159Elina Avanesyan

6-1 7-6(3)#108Alina Charaeva

6-1 3-6 7-5#137Noma Akugue Noha

7-5 6-4#99Moyuka Uchijima

7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-5#146Tamara Zidansek

7-5 6-4#203Sara Sorribes Tormo

6-3 5-7 7-5#91Solana Sierra

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MKMadison KeysKeys

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Anna BondarBondarAB

Madison Keys carries the stronger recent form — Anna Bondar's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1560.2%+2.1pp58.1%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1573.8%+11.4pp62.4%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1549.5%—50.1%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.6+2.02.6

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/154.01.2 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1542.8%+1.6pp44.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1540.3%+5.1pp45.4%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1566.3%+9.9pp56.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1553.1%+2.1pp51.0%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

60.2%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+2.1pp58.1%

73.8%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+11.4pp62.4%

49.5%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—50.1%

4.6Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+2.02.6

4.0Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.2 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

42.8%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.6pp44.4%

Pressure · 1–1

40.3%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+5.1pp45.4%

66.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+9.9pp56.4%

Points · 1–0

53.1%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.1pp51.0%

Madison Keys

Anna Bondar

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 20.5

Over 9.5

Madison Keys

Madison Keys

Madison Keys

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Madison Keys

Anna Bondar

Stat Battle