United StatesWTA WashingtonFinished

Predictions graded

Liudmila Samsonova #69Russia2Madison Keys #23United States1

Sets 3-6 · 6-4 · 6-4Mon 27 Jul 2026, 22:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–730%

Edges1–614%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMadison Keys · 46 places

Liudmila Samsonova

Russia

Career-high No. 12 on February 27, 2023; the supplied current ranking is No. 69. Her WTA profile lists hard court as her favorite surface, and she won Washington in 2022.

Current ranking: #69
Peak ranking: #12 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 182 cm

Madison Keys

United States

Career-high No. 5 on February 24, 2025; the supplied current ranking is No. 23. Her WTA profile lists hard court as her favorite surface, and she won Eastbourne in June 2026.

Current ranking: #23
Peak ranking: #5 · 2025
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Jul 2026, 22:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Madison Keys is a strong favorite over Liudmila Samsonova in Washington, backed by superior recent form (12-3 vs. 6-9), a dominant 5-1 H2H record, and a massive serve advantage.

The best betting value is on Keys -4.5 games at 1.80, with a 4.4-point edge, while the total games under 20.5 at 1.75 also offers a slight edge in what should be a straightforward win for the American.

Context

Keys' last-15 record is 12-3 (80%), while Samsonova's is 6-9 (40%).
- Keys won Eastbourne and reached Wimbledon R4; Samsonova's best recent result was a Wimbledon R3 loss.
- Keys has won 72.7% of sets in this window; Samsonova only 45.7%.
Keys leads 5-1 overall and 3-0 on hard courts.
- Four of Keys' wins were in straight sets, including a 6-1, 6-3 victory in their most recent hard-court meeting (2024).
- Samsonova's only win was a three-setter on grass in 2021.
Samsonova is 8-2 in Washington, winning the 2022 title.
- Her last-15 hard-court stats are unavailable, but her overall last-15 record is 6-9 with a 49.5% games-won rate.
- Keys has 260 career hard-court wins to Samsonova's 129.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Madison Keys

1.29fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Keys' dominant recent form, surface fit, and H2H make her a strong favorite, but the odds imply a higher win probability than the model estimate.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Madison Keys

1.35fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Keys' consistency on serve and break points makes her likely to close out the match.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Madison Keys 2-0

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Keys' dominant recent form and superior serve stats make a straight-sets win likely, but the offered odds slightly overprice the outcome.

Total SetslostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Keys' strong form and H2H dominance point to a straight-sets match, but the odds are slightly below the estimated probability.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Keys dominates recent form, surface fit, and H2H, making her a strong favorite.
- Keys last15 overall record 12-3 (80%), Samsonova 6-9 (40%)
- Keys last15 total points won 53.7% vs Samsonova 49.8%
- Keys career hard court wins 260, Samsonova 129
- H2H Keys leads 5-1, including 3-0 on hard
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMadison KeysEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Keys' superior game win percentage and H2H margins support a comfortable cover.
- Keys last15 games won 58.3%, Samsonova 49.5%
- Keys last15 average game differential +2.5 per match
- H2H Keys won by 4+ games in 4 of 6 matches
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMadison Keys -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Keys' strong serve and Samsonova's struggles point to a relatively quick match.
- Keys last15 average games per match 21.4, Samsonova 21.8
- Keys last15 games won 58.3%, Samsonova 49.5%
- H2H last 3 matches averaged 18.3 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Keys' dominant serve and Samsonova's weak return suggest a short first set.
- Keys last15 average games per set 9.7, Samsonova 9.3
- Keys last15 first serve points won 74.2%
- H2H last 3 matches set1 games: 7, 7, 8
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Keys' serve advantage could lead to another quick set, but Samsonova may push back.
- Keys last15 second serve points won 51.1%
- Samsonova last15 second serve points won 46.5%
- Keys last15 break points converted 45.4%
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Keys' serve and return edge gives her a clear advantage in the opening set.
- Keys career first set win conversion 87%, Samsonova 84%
- Keys last15 first serve points won 74.2%, Samsonova 66%
- Keys last15 return points won 42.9%, Samsonova 42.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMadison KeysEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Keys' consistency on serve and break points makes her likely to close out the match.
- Keys last15 second serve points won 51.1%, Samsonova 46.5%
- Keys last15 break points saved 61.3%, Samsonova 55.8%
- Samsonova last15 deciding set win rate 53%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMadison KeysEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Keys' superior serve and recent dominance suggest a straight-sets win is likely.
- Keys last15 sets won 72.7%, Samsonova 45.7%
- Keys last15 first serve points won 74.2%, Samsonova 66%
- H2H Keys won 4 of 6 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Set BettinglostMadison Keys 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Keys' form and H2H dominance make a straight-sets outcome probable.
- Keys last15 sets won 72.7%
- Keys last15 record 12-3, Samsonova 6-9
- H2H Keys won 4 of 6 in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Keys' strong serve reduces the likelihood of tiebreaks, and recent matches show few.
- Keys last15 tiebreak win rate 57%
- Samsonova last15 tiebreak win rate 51%
- Keys last15 first serve points won 74.2%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

1-5 (6 meetings)

L5-7 7-5 3-0 ret.Liudmila Samsonova#69vMadison Keys#23Jan 10, 2025

L6-1 6-3Liudmila Samsonova#69vMadison Keys#23May 24, 2024

L6-2 6-3Liudmila Samsonova#69vMadison Keys#23Apr 27, 2024

L5-7 6-2 6-2Liudmila Samsonova#69vMadison Keys#23Sep 2, 2023

L6-3 3-6 6-3Liudmila Samsonova#69vMadison Keys#23Jan 13, 2022

W7-6(4) 2-6 7-6(0)Liudmila Samsonova#69vMadison Keys#23Jun 18, 2021

Madison Keys dominates (6 meetings)6 total meetings

Liudmila Samsonova

6W 9L

4-6 7-6(3) 6-4#21Marie Bouzkova

6-4 4-6 6-2#18Diana Shnaider

6-3 6-3#111Polina Kudermetova

3-6 6-3 6-2#10Elina Svitolina

6-3 7-5#35Katerina Siniakova

1-6 6-3 6-0#24Elise Mertens

5-7 6-4 6-3#143Harriet Dart

6-4 6-4#159Jil Teichmann

7-5 6-3#61Daria Kasatkina

6-3 6-2#28Anastasia Potapova

6-4 6-3#32Ann Li

6-2 6-1#38Janice Tjen

7-5 6-1#4Cori Gauff

6-0 6-4#50Antonia Ruzic

6-2 7-6(11)#74Lilli Tagger

Madison Keys

12W 3L

6-4 7-6(2)#7Linda Noskova

3-6 6-2 6-3#9Amanda Anisimova

6-1 6-4#200Katie Swan

6-7(5) 6-4 6-3#126Kayla Day

7-5 6-4#76Tatjana Maria

6-1 ret.#49Petra Marcinko

6-3 6-1#46Mccartney Kessler

6-0 6-1#59Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

6-4 6-4#70Talia Gibson

7-6(5) 7-6(8)#3Jessica Pegula

6-4 7-5#6Karolina Muchova

7-6(3) 6-1#39Xinyu Wang

6-3 3-6 6-0#18Diana Shnaider

6-3 5-7 7-5#12Victoria Mboko

6-4 6-4#50Antonia Ruzic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LSLiudmila SamsonovaSamsonova

Last 15

0–7

9 core stats · 2 even

Madison KeysKeysMK

Madison Keys carries the stronger recent form — Liudmila Samsonova's route runs through aces / match.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.1%+5.5pp63.6%

1st Serve Won66.0%+8.2pp74.2%

2nd Serve Won46.5%+4.6pp51.1%

Aces / Match3.3—3.5

Double Faults / Match4.01.4 fewer2.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won42.2%—42.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted42.3%+3.1pp45.4%

Break Pts Saved55.8%+5.5pp61.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.8%+3.9pp53.7%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

58.1%1st Serve In+5.5pp63.6%

66.0%1st Serve Won+8.2pp74.2%

46.5%2nd Serve Won+4.6pp51.1%

3.3Aces / Match—3.5

4.0Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer2.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

42.2%Return Pts Won—42.9%

Pressure · 0–2

42.3%Break Pts Converted+3.1pp45.4%

55.8%Break Pts Saved+5.5pp61.3%

Points · 0–1

49.8%Total Pts Won+3.9pp53.7%

Liudmila Samsonova #69Russia2Madison Keys #23United States1

Player Profiles

Liudmila Samsonova

Madison Keys

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Madison Keys -4.5

Under 20.5

Madison Keys

Madison Keys

Madison Keys

Madison Keys 2-0

Under 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Liudmila Samsonova

Madison Keys

Stat Battle