United StatesWTA US OpenFinished

Predictions graded

Francesca Jones #104United Kingdom2Mona Barthel #221Germany1

Sets 7-6 · 1-6 · 6-2Wed 26 Aug 2026, 21:07 Predictions gradedQ2Hard

Predictions7–0100%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFrancesca Jones · 117 places

Francesca Jones

United Kingdom

British player who reached the 2026 US Open qualifying draw as its third seed after consecutive WTA 125 titles in Rome and Palermo.

Current ranking: #104
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Mona Barthel

Germany

Reached career-high No. 23 on 18 March 2013 and is No. 221 on the 3 August 2026 list. She is a 185 cm right-hander who lists hard as her preferred surface and has four WTA singles titles.

Current ranking: #221
Peak ranking: #23 · 2013
Current age: 36
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Aug 2026, 00:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Francesca Jones is in dominant form and her return game should exploit Mona Barthel's serve, making Jones the likely winner.

The best betting angle is over 9.5 total double faults, while the over 2.5 sets market is a trap. Jones's moneyline odds offer no value.

Context

Jones, 25, is ranked 104 and has built her recent success on clay, winning 13 of 14 matches on that surface in the last 15. Barthel, 36, is ranked 204 and has split her recent matches across surfaces.
Jones's 93.3% win rate in the last 15 matches dwarfs Barthel's 53.3%, and her return and break-point numbers are better. However, only one of those matches was on hard court, so her form may not transfer directly. Barthel has won three of her last four hard-court matches, making this a closer contest than the overall records suggest.
- Jones is 14-1 in her last 15 matches; Barthel is 8-7.
- Jones won 13 of 14 clay matches in that span; Barthel won 5 of 9 on clay.
- Jones has only one hard-court match in the last 15 (a win); Barthel has four hard-court matches (3-1).
Barthel's serve has been shaky in recent matches, with a first-serve percentage around 53% and nearly nine double faults per match. Jones has been winning over 52% of return points.
On hard courts in her last four matches, Barthel's first-serve percentage is 55.3% and she averages 6.7 double faults per match. Jones's return points won is 52.1% overall, and she converts 55.2% of break points. This mismatch could lead to frequent break opportunities for Jones, though Barthel's first-serve points won (68.1% on hard) shows she can still be effective when the first serve lands.
- Barthel's first-serve percentage is 52.8% overall and 55.3% on hard in the last 15 matches.
- Barthel averages 8.6 double faults per match overall and 6.7 on hard.
- Jones wins 52.1% of return points and converts 55.2% of break points.
Jones retired from a clay match on August 1 after losing the first set 7-6(5). She returned on August 25 and won a hard-court match in straight sets.
The retirement is the only physical issue in her recent log, and she has already played a full match since then without apparent problems. This suggests the injury was not serious, but it is worth noting that she has had limited hard-court play recently. Barthel has no recent fitness concerns, so this is a minor factor.
- Jones retired on August 1 against Kaitlin Quevedo after losing the first set.
- Jones played and won on August 25 against Nuria Brancaccio, 6-3 6-4.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Francesca Jones

1.55fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Jones's superior recent overall form and return/break profile give her a moderate edge, but the odds slightly overprice her.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Francesca Jones

1.59fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.9%

0.0ppshort

Jones's dominant recent set record and first-set conversion rate make her the likely set 1 winner, but the odds are slightly below the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Jones's superior recent form and return/break profile outweigh Barthel's hard-court sample, giving Jones a moderate edge in this Bo3 qualifier.
- Jones last 15 overall record 14-1 (93.3%), including 1-0 on hard in this window.
- Jones return points won 52.1% vs Barthel 47.2% overall; Jones break point conversion 55.2% vs Barthel 45.3%.
- Barthel last 15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%), but only 3-1 on hard with small sample.
- Jones ranking 104 vs Barthel 204; Jones career win pct 64.2% vs Barthel 55.5%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFrancesca JonesEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate serve hold rates and Barthel's high double fault count may lead to longer games, supporting over 20.5 total games.
- Jones average match duration 94.9 min; Barthel 96.2 min in last 15.
- Barthel hard-court matches average 113.7 min, suggesting longer games.
- Jones games won 64.4% vs Barthel 51.4% overall, but Barthel's serve can extend sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first-set patterns and Barthel's hard-court competitiveness suggest a close opening set.
- Jones first set average games in last 15: 9.3; Barthel: 9.6.
- Barthel hard-court first sets have been competitive (7-5, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3).
- Jones's return strength may force longer first sets against Barthel's serve.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.59
The read
Jones's strong first-set record and overall set dominance make her the likely set 1 winner.
- Jones first set win conversion career 88% vs Barthel 85%.
- Jones last 15 sets won 80% vs Barthel 48.6%.
- Jones won first set in 13 of last 15 matches; Barthel lost first set in 5 of last 8.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFrancesca JonesEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Barthel's extremely high double fault rate, especially on hard courts, makes over 9.5 total double faults likely.
- Barthel double faults per match overall 8.6, hard 6.7 in last 15.
- Jones double faults per match 3.7 overall.
- Combined expected double faults: Barthel 8.6 + Jones 3.7 = 12.3, well over 9.5.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Barthel's strong ace rate on hard courts drives the combined total over 5.5.
- Barthel aces per match overall 3.0, hard 5.3 in last 15.
- Jones aces per match 1.3 overall, but hard sample limited.
- Combined expected aces: Barthel 5 + Jones 1 = 6, above 5.5.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Francesca Jones has been highly reliable when projected to win

Francesca Jones has fulfilled 13 of 15 recent win predictions, a strong 87% success rate. Her average estimated probability was 66.7%, but she actually won 13 times versus an expected 10, indicating she has outperformed expectations. The two missed predictions both came as losses, with no draws, and her current 62% probability sits within her historical range of 55-78%.

Recent evidence for Francesca Jones15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·WTA Targu Mures

#103Kaitlin Quevedo1-0#110Francesca Jones

BetBugsFrancesca Jones to win·62%

Missed

1 Aug 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#103Kaitlin Quevedo1-0#110Francesca Jones

Francesca Jones to win

62%probability

Kaitlin Quevedo won

Missed

31 Jul·WTA Targu Mures

#110Francesca Jones2-0#260Alice Rame

BetBugsFrancesca Jones to win·72%

Matched

31 Jul 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#110Francesca Jones2-0#260Alice Rame

Francesca Jones to win

72%probability

Francesca Jones won

Matched

30 Jul·WTA Targu Mures

#110Francesca Jones2-0#394Lucija Ciric-Bagaric

BetBugsFrancesca Jones to win·78%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#110Francesca Jones2-0#394Lucija Ciric-Bagaric

Francesca Jones to win

78%probability

Francesca Jones won

Matched

28 Jul·WTA Targu Mures

#110Francesca Jones2-1#287Chloe Paquet

BetBugsFrancesca Jones to win·78%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#110Francesca Jones2-1#287Chloe Paquet

Francesca Jones to win

78%probability

Francesca Jones won

Matched

26 Jul·WTA Palermo

#113Francesca Jones2-1#191Fiona Ferro

BetBugsFrancesca Jones to win·62%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#113Francesca Jones2-1#191Fiona Ferro

Francesca Jones to win

62%probability

Francesca Jones won

Matched

Previous match context available

Francesca Jones

14W 1L

6-3 6-4#189Nuria Brancaccio

7-6(5) ret.#107Kaitlin Quevedo

6-1 6-2#247Alice Rame

7-5 6-3#360Lucija Ciric Bagaric

6-0 1-6 6-0#293Chloe Paquet

6-0 4-6 7-6(6)#141Fiona Ferro

6-3 6-4#218Alevtina Ibragimova

4-6 6-3 6-2#216Jennifer Ruggeri

6-3 6-2#323Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

6-3 6-2#226Darya Astakhova

6-3 6-1#135Lucia Bronzetti

2-6 6-1 6-1#321Martina Trevisan

6-3 6-1#137Noma Akugue Noha

2-6 6-4 6-1#275Federica Urgesi

1-6 6-1 6-0#362Dalila Spiteri

Mona Barthel

8W 7L

6-3 7-5#231Whitney Osuigwe

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#166Elizara Yaneva

7-5 6-4#182Martyna Kubka

7-5 6-3#116Laura Samson

4-6 6-2 6-4#563Tamila Gadamauri

6-2 7-6(5)#80Yulia Putintseva

4-6 6-3 6-0#197Eva Vedder

2-6 6-1 6-1#510Ekaterina Yashina

6-4 6-1#106Veronika Erjavec

6-2 6-7(8) 6-4#889Arabella Koller

6-4 6-2#150Lola Radivojevic

6-3 1-0 ret.#339Tessa Johanna Brockmann

6-3 6-4#878Victoria Pohle

6-4 6-3#173Lin Zhu

6-3 6-3#77Hanne Vandewinkel

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FJFrancesca JonesJones

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Mona BarthelBarthelMB

Francesca Jones carries the stronger recent form — Mona Barthel's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1564.4%+11.6pp52.8%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1565.4%+1.4pp66.8%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1550.5%+10.0pp40.5%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/151.3+1.73.0

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/153.74.9 fewer8.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1552.1%+4.9pp47.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1555.2%+9.9pp45.3%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1557.6%+1.9pp55.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1556.2%+5.5pp50.7%

Serve · 3–2

64.4%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+11.6pp52.8%

65.4%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+1.4pp66.8%

50.5%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+10.0pp40.5%

1.3Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+1.73.0

3.7Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/154.9 fewer8.6

Return · 1–0

52.1%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+4.9pp47.2%

Pressure · 2–0

55.2%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+9.9pp45.3%

57.6%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+1.9pp55.7%

Points · 1–0

56.2%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+5.5pp50.7%