GermanyAugsburg - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Cezar Cretu #260Romania2Marvin Moeller #319Germany0

Sets 6-4 · 6-3Thu 27 Aug 2026, 15:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions0–70%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCezar Cretu · 59 places

Cezar Cretu

Romania

Cretu reached a career-high No. 260 on 3 August 2026. He is a 25-year-old right-hander with a two-handed backhand and is 188 cm tall.

Current ranking: #260
Peak ranking: #260 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Marvin Moeller

Germany

Moeller reached a career-high No. 287 on 27 May 2024 and is No. 319 in the supplied current data. He is a 27-year-old right-hander from Hamburg.

Current ranking: #319
Peak ranking: #287 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 22:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Moeller is the stronger player based on recent form and H2H, but the fixture may not be active due to conflicting draw information.

If played, Moeller to win is likely but overpriced; the over 21.5 total games offers better value. Proceed with caution until the draw is confirmed.

Context

Augsburg results list Moeller losing 6-1, 6-3 to Faurel on 25 August.
- A 26 August listing shows Cretu scheduled against Miguel Damas.
- The supplied pairing is not supported by current draw data.
Moeller last15 record: 12-3 (80%).
- Cretu last15 record: 7-8 (46.7%).
- Moeller has won 55.7% of games vs Cretu's 48.7%.
H2H is tied 1-1, but Moeller won the latest match.
- The win came on clay, the same surface as this event.
- Moeller took the first set 6-1 in that match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Marvin Moeller

1.36fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Moeller's superior recent form and direct H2H win on clay give him the edge, but the odds imply a higher probability than the model estimate.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Marvin Moeller

1.36fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Moeller's strong recent starts and H2H first-set dominance support a set 1 win, but the odds imply a higher probability than the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Moeller's superior recent form and direct H2H win on clay give him the edge.
- Moeller last15 record 12-3 (80%) vs Cretu 7-8 (46.7%)
- Moeller last15 games won 55.7% vs Cretu 48.7%
- Moeller beat Cretu 6-1 5-7 6-4 on clay 2026-08-10
- Moeller ranking 274 vs Cretu 289
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMarvin MoellerEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 21.5 total games, suggesting a competitive match.
- Cretu last15 avg 20.8 games per match
- Moeller last15 avg 23.2 games per match
- H2H last match had 29 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets average near 10 games, making over 9.5 slightly likely.
- Cretu last15 first set avg 9.9 games
- Moeller last15 first set avg 9.8 games
- H2H first set had 7 games (6-1)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been competitive, with averages near 10 games.
- Cretu last15 second set avg 9.6 games
- Moeller last15 second set avg 9.9 games
- H2H second set had 12 games (5-7)
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Moeller's strong recent starts and H2H first-set dominance support a set 1 win.
- Moeller first set win rate implied by 80% match wins
- Moeller won first set 6-1 in last H2H
- Cretu first set conversion 92% but recent form weaker
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMarvin MoellerEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average under 2 double faults per match, supporting under 4.5.
- Cretu last15 double faults per match 1.9
- Moeller last15 double faults per match 1.8
- Combined average 3.7 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

L6-1 5-7 6-4Cezar Cretu#289vMarvin Moeller#274Aug 10, 2026

W6-4 6-1Cezar Cretu#289vMarvin Moeller#274Aug 5, 2024

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Cezar Cretu

7W 8L

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#313Miguel Damas 6-2 6-0#490Niels Mcdonald

6-1 6-2#211Maxim Mrva

2-6 6-2 6-4#348Thomas Faurel

6-1 5-7 6-4#274Marvin Moeller

6-0 6-3#330Anton Matusevich

6-2 6-4#234Sumit Nagal

2-6 7-5 6-3#128Gustavo Heide

6-1 6-4#504Alex Marti Pujolras

7-5 6-1#409Olle Wallin

6-3 4-6 6-1#234Sumit Nagal

6-3 6-4#490Niels Mcdonald

6-2 6-3#281Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-4 6-3#328Akira Santillan

7-6(4) 6-4#379Jacopo Vasami

Marvin Moeller

12W 3L

6-3 7-6(6)#261Matias Soto

6-1 6-3#348Thomas Faurel

6-3 6-4#373Dimitar Kuzmanov

4-6 7-6(5) 7-5#186Jan Kumstat

6-2 6-4#249Matej Dodig

6-4 6-0#490Niels Mcdonald

5-7 7-6(5) 7-6(4)#223Raul Brancaccio

6-1 5-7 6-4#289Cezar Cretu

6-2 6-4#88Hugo Gaston

6-3 5-0 ret.#61Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

0-6 6-3 7-6(6)#847Benito Sanchez Martinez

7-6(5) 6-3#231Kilian Feldbausch

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#325Calvin Hemery

6-2 3-6 7-6(1)#438Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-2 6-3—Mickael Kaouk

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CCCezar CretuCretu

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Marvin MoellerMoellerMM

Marvin Moeller carries the stronger recent form — Cezar Cretu's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1565.5%+6.3pp59.2%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1563.6%+6.3pp69.9%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1546.4%+4.4pp50.8%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/152.3+0.42.7

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.9—1.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1541.5%+1.3pp42.8%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1543.1%—42.7%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1547.5%+17.5pp65.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.5%+2.7pp52.2%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

65.5%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+6.3pp59.2%

63.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+6.3pp69.9%

46.4%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.4pp50.8%

2.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.42.7

1.9Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/15—1.8

Return · 0–1

41.5%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.3pp42.8%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

43.1%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15—42.7%

47.5%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+17.5pp65.0%

Points · 0–1

49.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.7pp52.2%