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Predictions graded

Frederico Ferreira Silva #236Portugal1Jurij Rodionov #134Austria2

Sets 2-6 · 6-3 · 1-6Wed 26 Aug 2026, 15:02 Predictions gradedQ2Hard

Predictions4–267%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJurij Rodionov · 102 places

Frederico Ferreira Silva

Portugal

Portuguese left-hander whose career-high ATP singles ranking was No. 168 on 24 May 2021. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #236
Peak ranking: #168 · 2021
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 178 cm

Jurij Rodionov

Austria

Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 87 on 19 February 2024. Left-handed Austrian; no reliably sourced current injury or decline narrative was identified.

Current ranking: #134
Peak ranking: #87 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 03:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Rodionov is the higher-ranked player with better recent form, but the moneyline offers no value.

The over 22.5 total games is the best bet, given Silva's tendency for longer matches and both players' modest return stats. Avoid Silva +2.5 games and Rodionov 2-1 set betting due to unreliable surface data and straight-set trends.

Context

Rodionov last15 overall record: 8-7 (53.3%) vs Silva 5-10 (33.3%).
- Rodionov's last 5 matches include 3 wins, while Silva has 2 wins in his last 5.
- Rodionov's wins include victories over top-200 opponents like Titouan Droguet (rank 102) and Vitaliy Sachko (rank 188).
Silva last15 hard record: 1-0 (1 match tracked).
- Rodionov last15 hard record: 1-1 (2 matches tracked).
- Silva's 2026 hard-court record is 7-2, but most wins came against lower-level opponents.
Rodionov last15 aces per match: 6.8 vs Silva 2.7.
- Rodionov last15 first-serve points won: 73.3% vs Silva 69.5%.
- On hard courts in last15, Rodionov's first-serve points won is 71.9% (2 matches), while Silva's is 78.4% (1 match).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Jurij Rodionov

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Rodionov's stronger recent overall form and ranking give him the edge, but the model estimate is below the implied probability, so this is not a value bet.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Rodionov's stronger recent overall form and higher ranking give him the edge, though Silva's hard-court sample is too small to confirm a surface edge.
- Rodionov last15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%) vs Silva 5-10 (33.3%)
- Rodionov last15 hard record 1-1 (50%) with 71.9% first-serve points won; Silva 1-0 on hard but only 1 match tracked
- Rodionov ranking 143 vs Silva 236; Rodionov 2026 hard record 6-3 vs Silva 7-2 but Silva's wins mostly lower-level
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJurij RodionovEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Silva's matches tend to be longer and both players have modest return stats, suggesting a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Silva last15 average 23.3 games per match (175 games / 15 matches); Rodionov 20.9 (314/15)
- Both players have similar return points won (Silva 35.6%, Rodionov 36%)
- H2H matches: 6-4 6-4 (20 games) and 6-3 5-7 7-6(6) (34 games)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Both players hold serve well early, and recent first-set averages are near or above 9.5 games.
- Silva last15 first-set average 9.7 games (based on parsed sets); Rodionov 9.3
- Both players have first-serve points won around 70%, limiting early breaks
- H2H first sets: 6-4 (10 games) and 6-3 (9 games)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rodionov's slightly better serve and break-point saving in the recent window support a first-set edge, but Silva's high first-set conversion keeps confidence low.
- Rodionov first-set win conversion career 83% vs Silva 88%
- Rodionov last15 first-serve points won 73.3% vs Silva 69.5%
- Rodionov last15 break points saved 65.5% vs Silva 61.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJurij RodionovEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rodionov's ace rate is significantly higher than Silva's, and combined they average around 9.5 aces per match in recent windows.
- Rodionov last15 aces per match 6.8; Silva 2.7
- Rodionov career aces 3106 in 622 matches (5.0 per match); Silva 2000 in 905 (2.2 per match)
- Hard court tends to produce more aces; Rodionov's last15 hard aces per match 3.5 (small sample)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined recent double-fault rate is just above 5.5, and hard-court pressure could push it over.
- Rodionov last15 double faults per match 3.2; Silva 2.4
- Combined average 5.6 double faults per match in last15
- Both players have second-serve points won around 50%, indicating pressure on second serves
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

L6-4 6-4Frederico Ferreira Silva#236vJurij Rodionov#143Sep 5, 2018

W6-3 5-7 7-6(6)Frederico Ferreira Silva#236vJurij Rodionov#143Nov 9, 2015

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Frederico Ferreira Silva

5W 10L

7-5 6-2#190Diego Dedura

6-4 7-5#186Jan Kumstat

6-2 4-6 6-1#327Nicolas Kicker

6-1 3-6 6-3#253Maks Kasnikowski

7-5 6-7(4) 6-1#40Luca Van Assche

6-4 6-2#262Martin Krumich

2-6 6-3 6-4#203Luka Pavlovic

6-4 6-3#409Olle Wallin

6-3 6-3#195Edas Butvilas

3-6 7-6(0) 7-6(5)#249Matej Dodig

6-4 6-3#172Gonzalo Bueno

6-4 6-3#338Mathys Erhard

6-2 7-5#148Pedro Martinez Portero

4-6 7-5 6-3#372Manas Manoj Dhamne

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#169Federico Agustin Gomez

Jurij Rodionov

8W 7L

6-1 6-4#216Kimmer Coppejans

6-1 6-4#157Rei Sakamoto

7-6(5) 6-4#606Jamie Mackenzie

7-6(3) 6-3#490Niels Mcdonald

6-3 6-4#284Pedro Boscardin Dias

6-2 7-6(4)#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

6-4 6-2#171Joel Schwaerzler

6-4 7-6(4)#188Vitaliy Sachko

6-2 6-2#374Andrey Chepelev

4-6 7-5 6-4#159Clement Tabur

6-3 6-2#338Mathys Erhard

4-6 7-6(4) 6-2#174Remy Bertola

6-4 6-4#224Oliver Crawford

6-4 6-2#226Henry Searle

7-6(3) 6-1#102Titouan Droguet

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FSFrederico Ferreira SilvaSilva

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Jurij RodionovRodionovJR

Jurij Rodionov carries the stronger recent form — Frederico Ferreira Silva's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.4%+3.7pp57.7%

1st Serve Won69.5%+3.8pp73.3%

2nd Serve Won51.0%—50.3%

Aces / Match2.7+4.16.8

Double Faults / Match2.40.8 fewer3.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won35.6%—36.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted39.5%+1.8pp41.3%

Break Pts Saved61.2%+4.3pp65.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.1%+1.1pp50.2%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

61.4%1st Serve In+3.7pp57.7%

69.5%1st Serve Won+3.8pp73.3%

51.0%2nd Serve Won—50.3%

2.7Aces / Match+4.16.8

2.4Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer3.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

35.6%Return Pts Won—36.0%

Pressure · 0–2

39.5%Break Pts Converted+1.8pp41.3%

61.2%Break Pts Saved+4.3pp65.5%

Points · 0–1

49.1%Total Pts Won+1.1pp50.2%