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Predictions graded

Anastasiia Sobolieva #195Ukraine1Alexandra Shubladze #189Russia2

Sets 7-6 · 1-6 · 4-6Tue 25 Aug 2026, 21:40 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlexandra Shubladze · 6 places

Anastasiia Sobolieva

Ukraine

Ukrainian right-hander, born 23 April 2004. Her available 2026 match record is heavily clay-based, with limited hard-court volume recorded; no current injury, withdrawal, retirement, or medical-timeout report surfaced in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #195
Peak ranking: #191
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Alexandra Shubladze

Russia

Russian right-hander, born 6 September 2005. ITF lists hard as her preferred surface; her WTA singles ranking reached a listed career high of No. 183 in July 2026. No current injury, withdrawal, retirement, or medical-timeout report surfaced in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #189
Peak ranking: #183 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 15:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Shubladze's strong hard-court form (11-3) and Sobolieva's poor hard-court record (0-4 in 2026) make Shubladze the clear favorite.

The match winner odds are overpriced, but the under on total aces and over on total double faults offer value. Expect a straight-set win for Shubladze.

Context

Sobolieva's 2026 hard-court record is 0-4, all losses on indoor hard.
- Her career hard-court wins total only 10 out of 238 matches won.
- Her last 15 matches have all been on clay, with no recent hard-court data.
Shubladze's last 15 hard-court record is 11-3 (78.6% win rate).
- She wins 63.3% of games on hard courts in that span.
- Her return points won on hard is 54.4%, showing strong return ability.
H2H on 2026-02-27: Shubladze won 6-3 6-1.
- The match was on clay, but Shubladze's dominance was clear.
- Sobolieva won their only other meeting in 2023, but that was also on clay.
On 2026-07-30, Sobolieva retired against Laura Samson at 4-2 in the first set.
- She also retired on 2026-07-12 against Ekaterine Gorgodze at 6-0 1-0.
- Two retirements in her last five matches indicate possible physical issues.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Alexandra Shubladze

1.29fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Shubladze's strong hard-court form and Sobolieva's poor hard-court record give the away player a clear surface-fit edge.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Alexandra Shubladze

1.36fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Shubladze's superior hard-court adaptation and high first-set conversion rate make her likely to take the opening set.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Alexandra Shubladze 2-0

1.80fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

The quoted price implies a higher probability than the model estimate, so there is no positive value on this exact score.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Shubladze's strong hard-court form and Sobolieva's poor hard-court record give the away player a clear surface-fit edge.
- Shubladze last15 on hard: 11-3 record, 63.3% games won, 54.4% return points won (14 matches tracked)
- Sobolieva last15 on clay: 12-3 record, 58.7% games won, 50.0% return points won (15 matches tracked)
- Sobolieva 2026 hard record: 0-4; career hard win% only 10/238 surface wins
- H2H most recent (Feb 2026, clay): Shubladze won 6-3 6-1
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlexandra ShubladzeEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite H2H blowouts, both players' recent matches trend longer, and a competitive qualifying match could exceed 20 games.
- Shubladze last15 average match duration: 108.4 minutes
- Sobolieva last15 average match duration: 98.9 minutes
- Both players have similar games won percentages (58.7% vs 62.1%)
- H2H matches: 6-3 6-1 and 6-2 6-1 (16 and 10 games)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing vulnerability on break points, the first set could feature multiple breaks and extend beyond 9 games.
- Shubladze last15 hard first serve in: 69.4%
- Sobolieva last15 clay first serve in: 61.4%
- Both players have break point save rates below 60%
- Shubladze last15 hard break points saved: 43.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Shubladze's superior hard-court adaptation and high first-set conversion rate make her likely to take the opening set.
- Shubladze first-set win conversion career: 93%
- Sobolieva first-set win conversion career: 88%
- Shubladze last15 hard first serve points won: 62.9%
- Sobolieva last15 clay first serve points won: 63.0%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlexandra ShubladzeEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server, so total aces should stay well under 5.5.
- Sobolieva last15 aces per match: 1.2
- Shubladze last15 aces per match: 0.4
- Combined expected aces: ~1.6 per match
- Both players rely on consistency over power
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given the players' serving profiles and H2H history, a tiebreak is less likely than a straightforward set outcome.
- Sobolieva career tiebreak win pct: 58%
- Shubladze career tiebreak win pct: 45%
- H2H matches had no tiebreaks
- Both players have moderate first serve percentages
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average nearly 3 double faults per match, making over 4.5 total double faults likely.
- Sobolieva last15 double faults per match: 2.6
- Shubladze last15 double faults per match: 2.8
- Combined expected double faults: ~5.4 per match
- Both players have second serve points won below 50%
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

L6-3 6-1Anastasiia Sobolieva#195vAlexandra Shubladze#189Feb 27, 2026

W6-2 6-1Anastasiia Sobolieva#195vAlexandra Shubladze#189Jan 22, 2023

2 total meetings

Anastasiia Sobolieva

12W 3L

4-2 ret.#122Laura Samson

6-4 6-2#245Selena Janicijevic

3-6 6-3 6-1#235Anna Siskova

6-1 6-4#423Cagla Buyukakcay

5-7 6-2 6-1#515Gina Marie Dittmann

6-0 1-0 ret.#165Ekaterine Gorgodze

6-3 7-6(4)#191Julia Avdeeva

6-4 6-4#362Dalila Jakupovic

6-4 7-5#116Lucia Bronzetti

6-2 6-3#303Eva Bennemann

3-6 7-6(5) 6-2#209Alice Tubello

6-4 6-2#152Julia Riera

6-2 6-2#239Martina Capurro Taborda

2-6 6-3 6-2#403Ipek Oz

6-3 6-3#212Angela Fita Boluda

Alexandra Shubladze

11W 4L

7-6(6) 7-6(2)#91Anastasia Zakharova

7-5 7-6(4)#345Isabella Shinikova

2-6 7-6(2) 6-3#75Alina Korneeva

4-6 ret.#450Sonja Zhiyenbayeva

6-4 6-1#286Hina Inoue

6-1 6-0#264Han Shi

6-4 3-6 6-3#304Zongyu Li

6-4 6-2#466Hikaru Sato

6-0 7-6(5)—I Wen Wan

6-2 6-3#363Yidi Yang

4-6 6-3 6-1#304Zongyu Li

6-3 5-7 6-0#487Chengyiyi Yuan

6-2 6-1#612Michika Ozeki

6-0 6-1#577Maria Kalyakina

6-4 2-6 6-3#354Rositsa Dencheva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ASAnastasiia SobolievaSobolieva

Last 15

3–3

9 core stats · 3 even

Alexandra ShubladzeShubladzeAS

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in pressure.

Serve · 1–1 · 3 even

1st Serve In61.4%+9.0pp70.4%

1st Serve Won63.0%—63.1%

2nd Serve Won47.6%—47.1%

Aces / Match1.2+0.80.4

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.6—2.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won50.0%+3.1pp53.1%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted52.6%+2.9pp49.7%

Break Pts Saved58.8%+14.5pp44.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won53.6%+2.0pp55.6%

Serve · 1–1 · 3 even

61.4%1st Serve In+9.0pp70.4%

63.0%1st Serve Won—63.1%

47.6%2nd Serve Won—47.1%

1.2Aces / Match+0.80.4

2.6Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/15—2.8

Return · 0–1

50.0%Return Pts Won+3.1pp53.1%

Pressure · 2–0

52.6%Break Pts Converted+2.9pp49.7%

58.8%Break Pts Saved+14.5pp44.3%

Points · 0–1

53.6%Total Pts Won+2.0pp55.6%