Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Cretu's dominant clay form in 2026 and this tournament, combined with Nagal's recent struggles and lower surface win rate, gives Cretu a clear edge.
- Cretu is 21-9 on clay in 2026, Nagal is 9-11.
- Cretu has won 8 of his last 10 matches, all on clay, dropping only 2 sets in his last 3 matches this tournament.
- Nagal has lost 3 of his last 5 matches, including a straight-set loss to a player ranked outside the top 300.
- Cretu holds a 92% first-set win conversion rate in his career, Nagal 84%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCezar CretuEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Cretu's recent quick wins, Nagal's matches tend to be longer, and the similar break point stats indicate a potentially tight contest that could exceed 21.5 games.
- Nagal's last 5 matches have averaged 24.6 games per match.
- Cretu's last 5 matches have averaged 20.4 games per match, but 3 of those were straight-set wins with few games.
- Both players have similar break point save rates (Nagal 56.6%, Cretu 58.4%) and convert rates (Nagal 43.9%, Cretu 46.9%), suggesting competitive games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cretu's superior form and Nagal's recent heavy defeats suggest Cretu could win by a margin of at least 4 games.
- Cretu has covered a -3.5 game handicap in 6 of his last 10 wins.
- Nagal has failed to cover a +3.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 losses.
- Cretu's average games won per match in his last 5 is 12.4, Nagal's is 11.2.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostCezar Cretu -3.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nagal's tendency to extend second sets, even in losses, suggests the second set could exceed 9.5 games.
- Nagal's last 5 second sets have averaged 9.8 games.
- Cretu's last 5 second sets have averaged 8.6 games, but Nagal often pushes sets deeper.
- In their recent matches, 60% of Nagal's second sets have gone over 9.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Cretu's strong first-set record and Nagal's recent slow starts make Cretu the likely winner of the opening set.
- Cretu has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches.
- Nagal has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Cretu's career first-set win conversion rate is 92%, Nagal's is 84%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostCezar CretuEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cretu's tendency to win in straight sets, especially on clay, makes under 2.5 sets more likely than a three-setter.
- Cretu has played under 2.5 sets in 7 of his last 10 matches.
- Nagal has played over 2.5 sets in 3 of his last 5 matches, but those were against lower-ranked opponents.
- Cretu's 92% first-set win conversion rate often leads to straight-set wins.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low tiebreak frequencies recently, and Cretu's strong starts make tiebreaks less probable.
- Cretu has played a tiebreak in only 2 of his last 10 matches.
- Nagal has played a tiebreak in 2 of his last 10 matches.
- Cretu's first-set dominance reduces the likelihood of tight sets needing tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates and recent match data hover around the 5.5 mark, making over a marginal call based on Cretu's slightly higher ace output.
- Cretu averages 3.3 aces per match (ace rate 3.3%), Nagal 2.2%.
- In their last 5 matches, Cretu has hit 16 aces (3.2 per match), Nagal 11 (2.2 per match).
- Combined, they average around 5.4 aces per match, close to the 5.5 line.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have similar double fault rates, and their recent match data shows a combined average well above 4.5, making over the likely outcome.
- Nagal has a double fault rate of 3.5%, Cretu 3.6%.
- In their last 5 matches, Nagal has hit 17 double faults (3.4 per match), Cretu 18 (3.6 per match).
- Combined, they average 7.0 double faults per match in recent form.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Sumit Nagal #285India2Cezar Cretu #287Romania1

Player Profiles

Sumit Nagal

Cezar Cretu

Quick Take

Context

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Cezar Cretu 2-0

Cezar Cretu

Cezar Cretu

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Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Sumit Nagal

Cezar Cretu