GermanyAugsburg - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Benjamin Hassan #5141Juan Manuel La Serna #288Argentina2

Sets 2-6 · 6-3 · 5-7Tue 25 Aug 2026, 12:25 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions5–183%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJuan Manuel La Serna · 226 places

Benjamin Hassan

Lebanese player born 4 February 1995. Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 143 in June 2024; his recorded career match volume is strongest on clay.

Current ranking: #514
Peak ranking: #143 · 2024
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Juan Manuel La Serna

Argentina

Argentine left-hander, born 5 February 2004. Public player data records a career-best No. 282 in May 2026; no reliable preferred-surface designation was verified.

Current ranking: #288
Peak ranking: #282 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 22:08 · Europe/Bucharest

La Serna holds a slight edge over Hassan on clay due to his superior return game and higher ranking.

The match is expected to be close, with value on La Serna to win and over 21.5 total games.

Context

La Serna last15 clay return points won: 44.2% (390/882).
- Hassan last15 clay return points won: 35.7% (353/988).
- La Serna also converts break points at 53.1% vs Hassan's 44.2%.
Hassan last15 clay first serve in: 52.6% (524/997).
- La Serna last15 clay first serve in: 65.5% (579/884).
- Hassan averages 3.2 double faults per clay match vs La Serna's 2.3.
La Serna's last match was 20 August vs Compagnucci (loss).
- Hassan played qualifying matches on 22-24 August, including a retirement win over Marterer.
- No fitness issues reported for either player.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
La Serna's superior return game and higher ranking give him a slight edge on clay, though Hassan's recent form is comparable.
- La Serna last15 clay: 9-6 record, 53.2% games won, 44.2% return points won
- Hassan last15 clay: 9-5 record, 50.5% games won, 35.7% return points won
- La Serna career clay win% 60.2 vs Hassan 57.6 overall; La Serna ranking 283 vs Hassan 419
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJuan Manuel La SernaEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are evenly matched and often play close sets, making a longer match likely.
- Hassan last15 average 22.9 games per match, La Serna 21.4
- Hassan last15 6 of 15 matches went to deciding set, La Serna 5 of 15
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is expected to be competitive with both players holding serve at similar rates.
- Hassan last15 first set average 9.9 games, La Serna 9.3
- Hassan last15 7 of 15 first sets had 10+ games, La Serna 6 of 15
- Both players have similar first set win rates
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to be close, with a significant chance of going to a third set.
- Hassan last15 6 of 15 matches went to deciding set (40%)
- La Serna last15 5 of 15 matches went to deciding set (33%)
- Both players have similar overall win percentages
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
La Serna's higher first serve percentage may give him a slight early advantage, but Hassan's stronger first serve points won keeps this close.
- La Serna first set win conversion 86% career, Hassan 86%
- La Serna last15 first serve points won 63.9% vs Hassan 73.3%
- Hassan last15 first serve in 52.6% vs La Serna 65.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJuan Manuel La SernaEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hassan's ace count should push the total over, but La Serna's low ace rate makes this a borderline call.
- Hassan last15 averages 5.5 aces per match, La Serna 1.4
- Combined average 6.9 aces per match
- Hassan's serve is a bigger weapon on clay
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is just above the line, but variance is high.
- Hassan last15 averages 3.5 double faults per match, La Serna 2.3
- Combined average 5.8 double faults per match
- Hassan's lower first serve percentage leads to more double faults
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Benjamin Hassan

9W 6L

6-4 6-2#439Matthew William Donald 7-5 6-7(5) 4-1 ret.#746Maximilian Marterer 6-1 2-6 6-2#268Dominic Stricker 3-6 3-2 ret.#201Lorenzo Giustino

7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(2)#356Geoffrey Blancaneaux

3-6 6-1 6-4#292Sandro Kopp

7-6(4) 6-3#623Oleksandr Ovcharenko

6-3 2-6 7-5#659Leo Raquillet

4-0 ret.—Flynn Thomas

6-3 6-4#497Radu Albot

1-6 6-4 6-4#234Sumit Nagal

6-2 3-6 7-6(3)#313Miguel Damas

6-3 4-6 6-2#498Daniel Siniakov

7-6(4) 6-2#504Alex Marti Pujolras

6-2 6-4#384Georgii Kravchenko

Juan Manuel La Serna

9W 6L

6-3 6-7(1) 6-4#365Tommaso Compagnucci

6-3 1-1 ret.#442Luca Staeheli

6-3 6-3#345Facundo Mena

6-2 6-3#632Ignacio Monzon

6-3 4-6 6-1#465Juan Alejandro Hernandez

6-3 6-3#198Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-2 1-0 ret.#430Santiago Rodriguez Taverna

6-2 2-0 ret.#279Nick Hardt

6-4 6-7(1) 6-4#900Enzo Kohlmann De Freitas

6-4 7-5#627Conner Huertas Del Pino

6-3 7-6(5)#364Eduardo Ribeiro

6-3 6-4#632Ignacio Monzon

3-6 6-0 7-5#827Johan Alexander Rodriguez

7-5 6-4#798Nicolas Oliveira

6-1 6-0#900Enzo Kohlmann De Freitas

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BHBenjamin HassanHassan

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Juan Manuel La SernaSernaJS

Juan Manuel La Serna carries the stronger recent form — Benjamin Hassan's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1552.6%+12.9pp65.5%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1573.3%+9.4pp63.9%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1553.2%+3.7pp49.5%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/155.5+4.11.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.51.2 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1535.3%+8.9pp44.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1543.6%+9.5pp53.1%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1556.6%+8.9pp47.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.7%+1.9pp51.6%

Serve · 3–2

52.6%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+12.9pp65.5%

73.3%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+9.4pp63.9%

53.2%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.7pp49.5%

5.5Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+4.11.4

3.5Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.2 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

35.3%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+8.9pp44.2%

Pressure · 1–1

43.6%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+9.5pp53.1%

56.6%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+8.9pp47.7%

Points · 0–1

49.7%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.9pp51.6%