United StatesWTA US OpenFinished

Predictions graded

Clara Burel #411France2Yexin Ma #181China0

Sets 6-4 · 6-2Mon 24 Aug 2026, 15:04 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions6–0100%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYexin Ma · 230 places

Clara Burel

France

Reached a career-high No. 42 in June 2024. The WTA profile records an injury-affected 2025 with only one event played; no current-tournament source found it to be active in August 2026.

Current ranking: #411
Peak ranking: #42 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Yexin Ma

China

Public profile sources identify her as a right-handed Chinese player born June 10, 1999, with a career high of No. 165. No reliable current injury, return-from-absence, coaching, or surface-preference report was located.

Current ranking: #181
Peak ranking: #165
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 11:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Clara Burel's strong recent form and return game give her an edge over Yexin Ma, but the switch from clay to hard court is a major concern.

The best betting angle is over 20.5 total games at 2.00, while the straight-set Burel win at 1.83 is overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Burel's last 15 matches were all on clay, with a 10-5 record.
- Her career hard-court win percentage is 32.4%, much lower than her 48.4% on clay.
- She has not played a hard-court match in the last 15-match window.
Ma's last 15 matches include 10 on hard courts, with a 6-4 record.
- Her hard-court win rate in that sample is 60%, above her overall 53.3%.
- She has a career hard-court win percentage of 54.5% across 580 matches.
Burel's return points won percentage is 51% over 15 matches.
- Ma's return points won percentage is 45.2% over 15 matches.
- Burel also converts break points at a higher rate: 49.7% vs 44.5%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Clara Burel

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Burel's superior recent form and return game give her the edge despite the ranking gap.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Clara Burel

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Burel's stronger serve and break conversion in recent matches should help her take the opening set.

Set 1 Total GameswonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 9.5

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

The first set is likely to be competitive with both players holding serve at a similar rate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Burel's superior recent form and return game give her the edge despite the ranking gap.
- Clara Burel last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), total points won 52.1%
- Yexin Ma last 15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%), total points won 49.6%
- Burel return points won 51% vs Ma 45.2% in last 15
- Burel ranking 411 vs Ma 181, but Burel has stronger recent form
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonClara BurelEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Both players' recent match lengths and competitive set percentages point to a match exceeding 20 games.
- Burel last 15 average games per match 21.9 (329 games / 15 matches)
- Ma last 15 average games per match 19.5 (293 games / 15 matches)
- Burel last 15 sets won 61.1%, Ma 52.9%, suggesting competitive sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive with both players holding serve at a similar rate.
- Burel last 15 average games per set 9.1 (329 games / 36 sets)
- Ma last 15 average games per set 8.6 (293 games / 34 sets)
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages around 58-60%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Burel's stronger serve and break conversion in recent matches should help her take the opening set.
- Burel first set win conversion career 82%
- Burel last 15 first serve points won 60.3% vs Ma 57.8%
- Burel last 15 break points converted 49.7% vs Ma 44.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonClara BurelEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Burel's strong set win percentage reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak being needed.
- Burel career tiebreak win percentage 54%
- Ma career tiebreak win percentage 54%
- Burel last 15 sets won 61.1%, suggesting she often wins sets without tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ma's higher ace rate combined with Burel's occasional aces makes over 3.5 total aces plausible.
- Burel last 15 aces per match 1.1
- Ma last 15 aces per match 2.5
- Combined average aces per match 3.6
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 3 double faults per match, making over 5.5 total double faults likely.
- Burel last 15 double faults per match 2.9
- Ma last 15 double faults per match 3.0
- Combined average double faults per match 5.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Clara Burel has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Clara Burel has fulfilled 2 of 4 recent win predictions (50%). Her matched predictions averaged 70% estimated probability, while missed predictions averaged 60%, indicating stronger confidence in successful outcomes. The current prediction of 62% falls within her historical range of 58-78%.

Recent evidence for Clara Burel4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·WTA Palermo

#236Alevtina Ibragimova2-1#461Clara Burel

BetBugsClara Burel to win·58%

Missed

24 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#236Alevtina Ibragimova2-1#461Clara Burel

Clara Burel to win

58%probability

Alevtina Ibragimova won

Missed

21 Jul·WTA Palermo

#498Anastasia Abbagnato0-2#630Clara Burel

BetBugsClara Burel to win·78%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#498Anastasia Abbagnato0-2#630Clara Burel

Clara Burel to win

78%probability

Clara Burel won

Matched

15 Jul·WTA Iasi

#630Clara Burel2-0#107Elsa Jacquemot

BetBugsClara Burel to win·62%

Matched

15 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#630Clara Burel2-0#107Elsa Jacquemot

Clara Burel to win

62%probability

Clara Burel won

Matched

9 Jul·WTA Contrexeville

#702Clara Burel1-2#381Alicia Herrero Linana

BetBugsClara Burel to win·62%

Missed

9 Jul 2026

WTA Contrexeville

#702Clara Burel1-2#381Alicia Herrero Linana

Clara Burel to win

62%probability

Alicia Herrero Linana won

Missed

Clara Burel

10W 5L

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4#218Alevtina Ibragimova

6-2 6-1#557Anastasia Abbagnato

6-4 7-5#46Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-1 6-1#102Elsa Jacquemot

2-6 7-5 6-3#184Varvara Lepchenko

6-3 4-6 6-3#318Alicia Herrero Linana

6-7(3) 6-0 6-2#72Petra Marcinko

6-3 ret.#188Despina Papamichail

6-7(6) 7-5 6-2#480Jana Otzipka

6-1 3-6 6-3#374Jenny Lim

6-0 6-3#430Maria Sara Popa

6-2 6-1#218Alevtina Ibragimova

1-6 6-3 7-5#330Deborah Chiesa

6-3 7-5#471Astrid Lew Yan Foon

6-3 6-1#89Katie Volynets

Yexin Ma

8W 7L

6-2 6-1#242Katrina Scott

6-1 6-3#361Clervie Ngounoue

6-2 6-3#70Caty McNally

7-6(2) 6-4#69Kimberly Birrell

7-6(3) 2-6 6-0#289Aoi Ito

6-3 3-6 6-1#630Hong Yi Cody Wong

6-3 6-2#525Dana Guzman

6-2 6-2#900Rachel Gailis

6-2 6-4—Theadora Rabman

6-2 2-6 6-4#849Francoise Abanda

6-2 6-0#142Lucrezia Stefanini

6-4 6-2#842Mia Slama

6-2 1-6 7-6(1)#372Momoko Kobori

6-2 6-4#429Reese Brantmeier

6-0 6-3#214Erika Andreeva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CBClara BurelBurel

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Yexin MaMaYM

Clara Burel carries the stronger recent form — Yexin Ma's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In55.5%—56.1%

1st Serve Won60.3%+2.5pp57.8%

2nd Serve Won44.4%+5.6pp50.0%

Aces / Match1.1+1.42.5

Double Faults / Match2.9—3.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won51.0%+5.8pp45.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted49.7%+5.2pp44.5%

Break Pts Saved56.9%+7.3pp49.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.1%+2.5pp49.6%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

55.5%1st Serve In—56.1%

60.3%1st Serve Won+2.5pp57.8%

44.4%2nd Serve Won+5.6pp50.0%

1.1Aces / Match+1.42.5

2.9Double Faults / Match—3.0

Return · 1–0

51.0%Return Pts Won+5.8pp45.2%

Pressure · 2–0

49.7%Break Pts Converted+5.2pp44.5%

56.9%Break Pts Saved+7.3pp49.6%

Points · 1–0

52.1%Total Pts Won+2.5pp49.6%

Clara Burel

Yexin Ma

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 20.5

Clara Burel

Clara Burel

Over 9.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Clara Burel

Yexin Ma

Stat Battle