Alevtina Ibragimova #236Russia22 – 1Clara Burel #461France1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90

The read

Both players' recent first-set game counts consistently exceed 8.5, indicating a tight opening set.

• Ibragimova's last15 first-set average games is 9.1 (137 games/15 sets), with 10 of 15 first sets over 8.5.
• Burel's last15 first-set average games is 9.3 (140/15), with 11 of 15 first sets over 8.5.
• Both players have similar first-serve points won percentages (58% vs 60.2%), suggesting few early breaks.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent match lengths and break-point dynamics point to a competitive match likely exceeding 20.5 games.

• Ibragimova's last15 average total games per match is 20.4 (306 games/15 matches), with 7 of 15 matches exceeding 20.5 games.
• Burel's last15 average total games per match is 22.0 (330/15), with 9 of 15 matches over 20.5.
• Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Ibragimova 58%, Burel 50.6%) and moderate save rates, leading to extended games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Burel's serve edge and H2H first-set dominance suggest she is more likely to start strong.

• Burel won the first set 6-2 in their only H2H meeting on clay.
• Burel's last15 first-serve points won is 60.2% vs Ibragimova's 58%, and Burel's return points won is 50.6% vs 53.9%, but Burel's serve is slightly more reliable early.
• Ibragimova's first-set win conversion career is 88%, but in last15 she lost first set in 4 of 15 matches (including to Burel).

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players are low-ace performers on clay, making under 3.5 total aces highly probable.

• Ibragimova averages 1.8 aces per match in last15, Burel averages 1.1.
• Combined average aces per match is 2.9, with only 3 of 15 matches for Ibragimova exceeding 3 aces, and 1 of 15 for Burel.
• Both players have low ace rates on clay, with career ace counts modest (Ibragimova 290 in 232 matches, Burel 648 in 326).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' double-fault rates and second-serve struggles suggest a combined total over 6.5 is likely.

• Ibragimova averages 3.9 double faults per match in last15, Burel averages 3.0.
• Combined average is 6.9 double faults per match, with 10 of 15 Ibragimova matches and 8 of 15 Burel matches exceeding 3 double faults individually.
• Both players have moderate second-serve vulnerability (Ibragimova 42.9% points won, Burel 44.5%), leading to pressure and double faults.