SwitzerlandSion - SwitzerlandFinished

Predictions graded

Dominic Stricker #336Switzerland2Tommaso Compagnucci #364Italy0

Sets 6-2 · 6-2Fri 21 Aug 2026, 15:00 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalClay

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDominic Stricker · 28 places

Dominic Stricker

Switzerland

Swiss left-hander whose career-high singles ranking was No. 88 in October 2023. Public profile material lists hard courts as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #336
Peak ranking: #88 · 2023
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Tommaso Compagnucci

Italy

Italian player born 5 November 1999. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface; his 2026 record in the retrieved official profile was predominantly on clay.

Current ranking: #364
Peak ranking: #364 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Aug 2026, 22:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Stricker's stronger serve and recent clay form make him the likely winner, but the odds are too short for value.

The over 21.5 total games market offers a modest edge, as both players tend to produce competitive matches.

Context

Stricker last15 first serve points won: 74.3% (384/517).
- Compagnucci last15 first serve points won: 70.6% (392/555).
- Stricker also saves break points at 65.4% vs Compagnucci's 53.0%.
Compagnucci beat Max Dahlin 7-5 6-3 in Sion on 18 August.
- Stricker has won three straight matches in Sion without dropping a set.
- Both players are familiar with the clay surface and conditions.
Stricker's last retirement was on 1 July, more than 30 days before this match.
- Compagnucci's appendix operation was mentioned in a 30 July interview as historical background.
- No current medical timeouts or withdrawals reported for either player.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Dominic Stricker

1.22fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

The market heavily favors Stricker, but the model's 58% estimate indicates the price is inefficient and should be avoided.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Stricker's stronger recent serve and point-winning edge on clay gives him a slight advantage in this Bo3 semi-final.
- Stricker last15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%) vs Compagnucci 10-5 (66.7%)
- Stricker last15 total points won 52.8% vs Compagnucci 51.4%
- Stricker last15 first serve points won 74.3% vs Compagnucci 70.6%
- Stricker career first set win conversion 86% vs Compagnucci 92%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDominic StrickerEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches averaging around 20 games, and a close Bo3 semi-final is likely to exceed 21.5 total games.
- Stricker last15 average games per match 19.9 (299 games / 15 matches)
- Compagnucci last15 average games per match 19.9 (298 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have similar games-won percentages around 54-56%
- Compagnucci's last three matches: 32, 17, 21 total games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players converting first sets at high rates, the opening set is likely to be competitive and extend beyond 9.5 games.
- Stricker last15 first set average games: 9.5 (based on recent set scores)
- Compagnucci last15 first set average games: 9.3
- Both players have strong first-set win conversion rates (86% and 92%)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stricker's superior first-serve effectiveness and current Sion momentum make him a slight favorite to take the opening set.
- Stricker last15 first serve points won 74.3%
- Stricker last15 break points saved 65.4% vs Compagnucci 53.0%
- Stricker recent form: won 3 straight matches in Sion without dropping a set
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDominic StrickerEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average under 2.5 double faults per match, making under 4.5 total double faults likely.
- Stricker last15 double faults per match 2.1
- Compagnucci last15 double faults per match 1.7
- Combined average double faults per match 3.8
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stricker's strong ace count combined with Compagnucci's moderate serving suggests the total aces could exceed 6.5 in a competitive match.
- Stricker last15 aces per match 5.1
- Compagnucci last15 aces per match 2.4
- Combined average aces per match 7.5
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Dominic Stricker

11W 4L

6-4 7-6(3)#423Mika Brunold 6-4 6-4#389Lucio Ratti 7-5 6-3#353Raphael Perot

6-3 6-2#246Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-1 6-3#424Norbert Gombos

6-7(5) 6-1 7-6(4)#222Francesco Passaro

7-6(6) 6-3#271Juan Bautista Torres

6-2 6-3#444Denis Yevseyev

7-6(5) 6-2#89Alexander Shevchenko

6-2 6-4#46Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

4-2 ret.#399Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-2 6-4#299Philip Henning

6-3 6-4#625Kai Wehnelt

4-6 6-3 6-1#889Niklas Schell

7-5 6-4—Alessandro Hunziker

Tommaso Compagnucci

10W 5L

6-3 6-7(1) 6-4#288Juan Manuel La Serna 6-3 6-2#508Ryan Nijboer 7-5 6-3#880Max Dahlin

6-2 6-4#274Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-3 7-5#780Aleksandr Braynin

6-4 6-2#87Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 7-6(3)#313Dali Blanch

6-2 6-1—Siddhant Banthia

6-2 6-4#515Filip Jeff Planinsek

6-2 7-6(3)#410Sebastian Sorger

6-3 6-2—Alex Huszar

6-4 4-6 6-2#879Petros Tsitsipas

6-0 6-0#461Matthew William Donald

6-2 6-1—Francesco Giuseppe Colasanto

6-3 7-6(4)#301Petr Nesterov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DSDominic StrickerStricker

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Tommaso CompagnucciCompagnucciTC

Dominic Stricker carries the stronger recent form — Tommaso Compagnucci's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In54.4%+7.3pp61.7%

1st Serve Won74.3%+3.7pp70.6%

2nd Serve Won51.4%—51.3%

Aces / Match5.1+2.72.4

Double Faults / Match2.10.4 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.7%+1.7pp40.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted50.5%+1.1pp49.4%

Break Pts Saved65.4%+12.4pp53.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.8%+1.4pp51.4%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

54.4%1st Serve In+7.3pp61.7%

74.3%1st Serve Won+3.7pp70.6%

51.4%2nd Serve Won—51.3%

5.1Aces / Match+2.72.4

2.1Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

41.7%Return Pts Won+1.7pp40.0%

Pressure · 2–0

50.5%Break Pts Converted+1.1pp49.4%

65.4%Break Pts Saved+12.4pp53.0%

Points · 1–0

52.8%Total Pts Won+1.4pp51.4%