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Predictions graded

Tommaso Compagnucci #364Italy2Juan Manuel La Serna #288Argentina1

Sets 6-3 · 6-7 · 6-4Thu 20 Aug 2026, 09:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions1–517%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJuan Manuel La Serna · 76 places

Tommaso Compagnucci

Italy

Italian player born 5 November 1999. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface; his 2026 record in the retrieved official profile was predominantly on clay.

Current ranking: #364
Peak ranking: #364 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Juan Manuel La Serna

Argentina

Argentine left-hander, born 5 February 2004. Public player data records a career-best No. 282 in May 2026; no reliable preferred-surface designation was verified.

Current ranking: #288
Peak ranking: #282 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Aug 2026, 03:02 · Europe/Bucharest

La Serna's superior return game and break point conversion give him a structural edge on clay, making him a value bet at 2.20 to win the match.

However, his recent inconsistency and fitness concerns warrant caution, and the first set winner market should be avoided. The match is likely to be competitive, with potential value in over 21.5 total games and under 5.5 total aces.

Context

La Serna's last 15 matches include three wins by retirement (vs Staeheli, Hardt, Rodriguez Taverna).
- He lost to Ignacio Monzon (rank 640) and Conner Huertas Del Pino (rank 642) in recent weeks.
- His last 15 record is 10-5, but the losses came against lower-ranked opponents, suggesting possible physical or mental dips.
La Serna return points won: 46.1% vs Compagnucci 40.7% in last 15 matches.
- La Serna break point conversion: 57.1% vs Compagnucci 50.0% in last 15 matches.
- La Serna first serve in: 67.5% vs Compagnucci 61.3%, giving him more control from the start.
Compagnucci first set win conversion: 92% career, showing he often starts well.
- Compagnucci first serve points won: 70.5% in last 15 matches, but return points won only 40.7%.
- Compagnucci break points saved: 53.8% in last 15 matches, below La Serna's break point conversion of 57.1%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
La Serna's superior return and break point conversion give him a structural edge on clay, supported by a higher ranking.
- La Serna return points won 46.1% vs Compagnucci 40.7% in last 15 matches
- La Serna break point conversion 57.1% vs Compagnucci 50.0% in last 15 matches
- La Serna ranking 288 vs Compagnucci 364
- La Serna first serve in 67.5% vs Compagnucci 61.3% in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJuan Manuel La SernaEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have similar games won percentages and match durations, suggesting a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Compagnucci average match duration 91.9 minutes in last 15 matches
- La Serna average match duration 94.0 minutes in last 14 matches
- Compagnucci games won 54.6% and La Serna games won 55.3% in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 9.5 games in the first set, making Over 9.5 a coin flip with slight value.
- Compagnucci first set average games 9.4 in last 15 matches
- La Serna first set average games 9.3 in last 15 matches
- Both players have similar first set game totals
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
La Serna's stronger return game and higher first serve percentage give him a slight edge to start the match.
- La Serna first set win conversion 86% career vs Compagnucci 92% career
- La Serna return points won 46.1% vs Compagnucci 40.7% in last 15 matches
- La Serna first serve in 67.5% vs Compagnucci 61.3% in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJuan Manuel La SernaEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, making Under 5.5 total aces likely in a clay court match.
- Compagnucci aces per match 2.1 in last 15 matches
- La Serna aces per match 1.4 in last 14 matches
- Combined average aces per match 3.5
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player has a strong tiebreak tendency, and clay matches often avoid tiebreaks.
- Compagnucci tiebreak win percentage 53% career
- La Serna tiebreak win percentage 49% career
- Both players have moderate tiebreak rates
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault averages are close to the line, making Over 3.5 a marginal play.
- Compagnucci double faults per match 1.6 in last 15 matches
- La Serna double faults per match 2.1 in last 14 matches
- Combined average double faults per match 3.7
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Tommaso Compagnucci

10W 5L

6-3 6-2#508Ryan Nijboer 7-5 6-3#880Max Dahlin

6-2 6-4#274Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-3 7-5#780Aleksandr Braynin

6-4 6-2#87Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 7-6(3)#313Dali Blanch

6-2 6-1—Siddhant Banthia

6-2 6-4#515Filip Jeff Planinsek

6-2 7-6(3)#410Sebastian Sorger

6-3 6-2—Alex Huszar

6-4 4-6 6-2#879Petros Tsitsipas

6-0 6-0#461Matthew William Donald

6-2 6-1—Francesco Giuseppe Colasanto

6-3 7-6(4)#301Petr Nesterov

6-3 6-3#541Tomasz Berkieta

Juan Manuel La Serna

10W 5L

6-3 1-1 ret.#529Luca Staeheli

6-3 6-3#344Facundo Mena

6-2 6-3#640Ignacio Monzon

6-3 4-6 6-1#470Juan Alejandro Hernandez

6-3 6-3#202Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-2 2-0 ret.#277Nick Hardt

6-2 1-0 ret.#405Santiago Rodriguez Taverna

6-4 6-7(1) 6-4#900Enzo Kohlmann De Freitas

6-4 7-5#642Conner Huertas Del Pino

6-3 7-6(5)#378Eduardo Ribeiro

6-3 6-4#640Ignacio Monzon

3-6 6-0 7-5#660Johan Alexander Rodriguez

7-5 6-4#821Nicolas Oliveira

6-1 6-0#900Enzo Kohlmann De Freitas

6-1 6-4#866Samuel Alejandro Linde Palacios

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TCTommaso CompagnucciCompagnucci

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Juan Manuel La SernaSernaJS

Tommaso Compagnucci carries the stronger recent form — Juan Manuel La Serna's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1561.3%+6.2pp67.5%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1570.5%+7.0pp63.5%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1551.2%+3.0pp48.2%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/152.1+0.71.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.60.5 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1540.7%+5.4pp46.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1550.0%+7.1pp57.1%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1553.8%+5.6pp48.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.6%+0.8pp52.4%

Serve · 4–1

61.3%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+6.2pp67.5%

70.5%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+7.0pp63.5%

51.2%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.0pp48.2%

2.1Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.71.4

1.6Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.5 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

40.7%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+5.4pp46.1%

Pressure · 1–1

50.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+7.1pp57.1%

53.8%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+5.6pp48.2%

Points · 0–1

51.6%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+0.8pp52.4%