Tristan Boyer #168United States00 – 2Aidan Mayo #625United States2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Boyer's superior recent form, higher ranking, and better return stats give him a moderate edge, though his recent retirement flag adds uncertainty.

• Boyer last15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Mayo 7-8 (46.7%)
• Boyer last15 hard record 4-3 (57.1%) vs Mayo 7-7 (50%) on hard
• Boyer career hard win% 54.2% vs Mayo 53.3%, but Boyer ranking 168 vs 625
• Boyer last15 return points won 38.9% vs Mayo 36.9%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have shown a tendency for tight, three-set matches on hard courts recently, and their break point save rates suggest extended games.

• Boyer last15 hard avg games per match 19.4, Mayo 26.0
• Both players have 3-set matches in recent form: Boyer 3 of last 7 hard, Mayo 4 of last 7 hard
• Boyer last15 break point save 63.5%, Mayo 62.3%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Mayo's serve-heavy style often leads to tight first sets, and Boyer's recent hard-court sets have been competitive, making over 9.5 games plausible.

• Boyer last15 hard first set avg games 9.4, Mayo 10.1
• Mayo last15 hard tiebreak in 4 of 14 matches
• Boyer career tiebreak win% 53%, Mayo 52%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets have been competitive for both, with Mayo's strong serving and Boyer's resilience suggesting another close set.

• Boyer last15 hard second set avg games 9.3, Mayo 9.9
• Both players have multiple 7-5 or 7-6 second sets in recent hard matches
• Mayo last15 hard break point saved 64.3%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With both players showing a high frequency of three-set matches on hard courts recently and similar clutch stats, a deciding set is likely.

• Boyer last15 hard 3-set matches: 3 of 7 (43%), Mayo 4 of 7 (57%)
• Boyer career deciding set win% 49%, Mayo 47%
• Both players have similar break point conversion rates (Boyer 43.1%, Mayo 34.5% last15 overall)

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Boyer's strong first-set record and slightly better recent form suggest a narrow edge, but Mayo's big serve on hard courts makes this a low-confidence call.

• Boyer first set win conversion career 83% vs Mayo 86%
• Boyer last15 hard first serve points won 76.2% vs Mayo 81.1%
• Mayo last15 hard aces per match 9.9 vs Boyer 2.9

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Mayo's big serve and Boyer's solid return create a recipe for tiebreaks, with both players showing a ~29% tiebreak rate in recent hard-court matches.

• Mayo last15 hard tiebreak in 4 of 14 matches (28.6%)
• Boyer last15 hard tiebreak in 2 of 7 matches (28.6%)
• Combined tiebreak probability ~50% given serve dominance and close sets