United StatesBrownsburg - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Evan King #840United States0Andrew Fenty #394United States2

Sets 1-6 · 4-6Mon 10 Aug 2026, 15:05 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions8–0100%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrew Fenty · 446 places

Evan King

United States

King reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 185 on 23 April 2018. He is a 185 cm left-hander who now competes primarily in doubles.

Current ranking: #840
Peak ranking: #185 · 2018
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Andrew Fenty

United States

Fenty reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 382 on 8 June 2026. The ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #394
Peak ranking: #382 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Aug 2026, 12:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Andrew Fenty's dominant hard-court form (66.7% win rate, 60.1% games won) and superior return game give him a clear edge over Evan King (37.5% win rate, 48.8% games won).

Expect a straight-set win for Fenty, with value in Fenty 2-0 and under 2.5 sets at 1.60 odds. Avoid backing King at 3.75 due to his poor recent record and matchup disadvantages.

Context

Fenty retired at 6-7(11) 4-1 against Jeff Wolf on 13 July 2026.
- He also retired at 3-0 down against Edward Winter on 30 June 2026.
- No current injury report confirms the issue is resolved, but he won his most recent match comfortably.
Fenty last 15 on hard: 10-5 record, 60.1% games won, 42.6% return points won.
- King last 8 on hard: 3-5 record, 48.8% games won, 35.0% return points won.
- Fenty saves 66.2% of break points compared to King's 58.7% on hard courts.
King lost in straight sets to Aidan Mayo (rank 625) and Micah Braswell (rank 888) in recent hard-court matches.
- In his last 15 matches, King won only 34.3% of sets played.
- King's only recent win came against Calum Puttergill (rank 888) in straight sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Andrew Fenty

1.22fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Andrew Fenty's dominant recent hard-court form (10-5 record, 60.1% games won) far surpasses Evan King's 4-11 overall and 37.5% hard-court win rate, making Fenty a clear favorite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Andrew Fenty has a massive recent form and surface-fit edge, winning 66.7% of his last 15 matches on hard compared to King's 37.5%, with superior serve and return metrics.
- Andrew Fenty last 15 overall record: 10-5 (66.7%), Evan King: 4-11 (26.7%)
- Fenty last 15 on hard: 66.7% win rate, 60.1% games won; King on hard: 37.5% win rate, 48.8% games won
- Fenty return points won last 15: 42.6% vs King: 34.6%
- Fenty break point save rate last 15: 66.2% vs King: 53.6%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndrew FentyEstimated chance78%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fenty's dominant recent hard-court form leads to quick straight-set wins, while King struggles to extend matches, making under 21.5 games likely.
- Fenty last 15 average games per match: 18.5 (167 games/15 matches), King: 22.5 (153 games/15 matches)
- Fenty last 15 on hard: 60.1% games won, often winning in straight sets with low game counts (e.g., 12-5, 12-6, 12-3)
- King last 15 on hard: 48.8% games won, lost 6 of 8 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fenty's recent hard-court matches show an average winning margin exceeding 4 games, while King consistently loses by multiple games, making -3.5 a reasonable handicap.
- Fenty last 15 average game margin per match: +3.3 (167-118 total games), King: -2.3 (153-185 total games)
- Fenty last 15 on hard: average game margin +4.1 (167-118 in 15 matches, all on hard)
- King last 15 on hard: average game margin -1.5 (82-86 in 8 matches)
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAndrew Fenty -3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to produce relatively quick first sets, with Fenty's strong return game likely preventing extended games, though confidence is tempered by variability.
- Fenty last 15: 10 of 15 first sets had 9 or fewer games (67%)
- King last 15: 9 of 15 first sets had 9 or fewer games (60%)
- Fenty first set average games: 8.9, King: 9.1
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Fenty's superior return game and overall point dominance in recent matches give him a clear edge to take the first set, despite King's decent first-serve numbers.
- Fenty first set win conversion career: 89%, King: 85%
- Fenty last 15 total points won: 53.7% vs King: 47.4%
- Fenty last 15 first serve points won: 69.9% vs King: 71.3% (similar), but Fenty return points won: 42.6% vs King: 34.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrew FentyEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both players' recent patterns strongly favor straight-set outcomes, with Fenty winning efficiently and King rarely forcing a decider, supporting a 2-0 Fenty win.
- Fenty last 15: won 10 matches, 8 in straight sets (80% of wins)
- King last 15: lost 11 matches, 9 in straight sets (82% of losses)
- Fenty last 15 on hard: 7 of 10 wins in straight sets
BetBugs · Set BettingwonAndrew Fenty 2-0Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
The match is heavily skewed toward a straight-set result given Fenty's dominance and King's inability to push matches to a third set in recent hard-court outings.
- Fenty last 15: 80% of wins in straight sets; King last 15: 82% of losses in straight sets
- Fenty last 15 on hard: 7 of 10 wins in straight sets
- King last 15 on hard: 0-2 in three-set matches, lost all others in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low tiebreak occurrence in recent matches, and Fenty's dominance reduces the likelihood of tight sets, though a competitive first set could still produce one.
- Fenty last 15: tiebreak in 2 of 15 matches (13.3%)
- King last 15: tiebreak in 2 of 15 matches (13.3%)
- Fenty career tiebreak win%: 51%, King: 40%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages suggest a total above 7.5 is plausible, especially with King's hard-court ace rate, but low confidence due to match length uncertainty.
- Fenty last 15 aces per match: 3.7, King: 4.7, combined average: 8.4
- Fenty last 15 on hard: 3.7 aces per match, King on hard: 5.6 aces per match, combined: 9.3
- King's higher ace rate on hard (5.6) boosts the total
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is right at the 5.5 threshold, making over a marginal call with low confidence given the small sample and match length dependency.
- Fenty last 15 double faults per match: 2.9, King: 2.7, combined: 5.6
- Fenty last 15 on hard: 2.9, King on hard: 2.5, combined: 5.4
- Both players have moderate double fault rates, hovering around the line
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Evan King's recent form and surface metrics are significantly weaker than Fenty's, making the long odds a trap for bettors expecting an upset.

Evan King

4W 11L

6-1 6-3#888Calum Puttergill

6-4 6-2#625Aidan Mayo

7-5 6-3#888Micah Braswell

4-6 6-3 6-4#544Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-4 3-6 6-2#867Bang Shuo Yin

6-3 6-2#428Valerio Aboian

7-6(7) 7-5#732Yuki Mochizuki

3-6 7-5 6-3#615Bruno Kuzuhara

7-5 6-3#439Denis Yevseyev

6-2 6-3#878Jaimee Floyd Angele

6-7(4) 6-2 6-2#899Johannes Haerteis

6-7(6) 7-5 6-1#698Sam Riffice

7-6(7) 6-3#166Daniil Glinka

6-2 6-1#760Malek Jaziri

6-3 6-4#391Justin Boulais

Andrew Fenty

10W 5L

6-4 6-1—Eli Dieveney

6-7(11) 4-1 ret.#282Jeff Wolf

3-0 ret.#348Edward Winter

6-4 6-1#415Masamichi Imamura

6-3 6-3#482Karl Poling

3-6 6-3 7-6(4)#552Gavin Young

6-3 6-4#216Braden Shick

6-4 6-2#484Enzo Aguiard

6-2 6-3—Victor Tosetto

6-3 1-6 6-3#486Ozan Baris

6-2 6-1—Lucas Marionneau

6-3 6-3—Thanaphat Boosarawongse

6-1 4-6 6-1#530Timo Legout

6-4 6-4#876Sebastian Gorzny

6-3 6-3#615Bruno Kuzuhara

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EKEvan KingKing

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Andrew FentyFentyAF

Andrew Fenty carries the stronger recent form — Evan King's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In55.5%+9.3pp64.8%

1st Serve Won71.3%+1.4pp69.9%

2nd Serve Won47.1%+8.5pp55.6%

Aces / Match4.7+1.03.7

Double Faults / Match2.7—2.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won34.6%+8.0pp42.6%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted36.5%+5.7pp42.2%

Break Pts Saved53.6%+12.6pp66.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.4%+6.3pp53.7%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

55.5%1st Serve In+9.3pp64.8%

71.3%1st Serve Won+1.4pp69.9%

47.1%2nd Serve Won+8.5pp55.6%

4.7Aces / Match+1.03.7

2.7Double Faults / Match—2.9

Return · 0–1

34.6%Return Pts Won+8.0pp42.6%

Pressure · 0–2

36.5%Break Pts Converted+5.7pp42.2%

53.6%Break Pts Saved+12.6pp66.2%

Points · 0–1

47.4%Total Pts Won+6.3pp53.7%

Evan King

Andrew Fenty

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Andrew Fenty 2-0

Under 2.5

Andrew Fenty

Andrew Fenty

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Evan King @ 3.75

Evan King

Andrew Fenty

Stat Battle