Tristan Boyer #166United States22 – 0Lorenzo Claverie #869Venezuela0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12

The read

Boyer's superior return game and higher-quality recent opposition give him a clear edge on hard court, despite limited recent hard-court data.

• Boyer's overall last-15 record is 9-6 (60%) vs Claverie's 8-7 (53.3%), with Boyer facing stronger opposition (avg rank ~150 vs ~400).
• On hard courts, Boyer's last-15 sample is small (1-1) but his career hard-court win rate (75-56, 57.3%) far exceeds Claverie's (41-41, 50%).
• Boyer's return points won in last 15 overall is 38.3% vs Claverie's 31.7%, indicating a significant edge in breaking serve.
• Claverie's last-15 hard-court record is 2-3 (40%) with a low 33% return points won, struggling against lower-ranked opponents.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Claverie's hard-court matches tend to be lengthy, and both players' tiebreak tendencies suggest a close contest with over 21.5 total games.

• Claverie's last-15 hard-court matches average 27.8 games per match (70 games in 5 matches), with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Boyer's last-15 overall matches average 22.9 games, but his two recent hard-court matches averaged 12 games (one retirement), skewing data.
• Both players have high tiebreak rates: Claverie 60% career tiebreak win, Boyer 52%, increasing likelihood of extended sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Strong serving and competitive recent sets point to a first set with at least 10 games.

• Claverie's last-15 hard-court set scores include 7-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-4, indicating tight opening sets.
• Boyer's last-15 overall first-set average is 9.8 games, with 8 of 15 sets going over 9.5.
• Both players have strong first-serve points won on hard (Boyer 70.6%, Claverie 74.9%), making breaks less frequent early.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.20

The read

Boyer's strong first-set record and superior return stats make him likely to take the opening set against a less consistent Claverie.

• Boyer's career first-set win conversion is 83%, showing he starts matches strongly.
• Claverie's last-15 hard-court first-serve points won is 74.9%, but his return points won is only 33%, making him vulnerable early.
• Boyer's last-15 overall break-point conversion is 40.2% vs Claverie's 30.8%, suggesting Boyer can capitalize on early chances.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Claverie's big serve alone can push the total over 12.5, with Boyer contributing a few aces on hard court.

• Claverie averages 10.7 aces per match in last 15 overall, and 7.0 on hard courts specifically.
• Boyer averages 4.9 aces per match in last 15 overall, but only 2.5 on hard (small sample).
• Combined, their last-15 overall ace averages sum to 15.6, and Claverie's height (196cm) and serve power drive high ace counts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

High first-serve effectiveness and both players' tiebreak history suggest at least one tiebreak is likely.

• Claverie has a 60% career tiebreak win rate and has played tiebreaks in 6 of his last 15 matches (40%).
• Boyer has a 52% career tiebreak win rate and played tiebreaks in 5 of his last 15 matches (33%).
• Both players have strong first-serve points won on hard (Boyer 70.6%, Claverie 74.9%), making breaks difficult.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Claverie's double-fault tendency, especially in tight matches, makes over 6.5 a reasonable low-confidence pick.

• Claverie averages 4.1 double faults per match in last 15 overall, and 4.0 on hard courts.
• Boyer averages 2.3 double faults per match in last 15 overall, and 2.5 on hard courts.
• Combined average is 6.4, just below the line, but Claverie's high double-fault rate in pressure moments could push it over.