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Predictions graded

Ashlyn Krueger #102United States0Marta Kostyuk #13Ukraine2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Mon 6 Jul 2026, 10:02 Predictions gradedFourth RoundGrass

Predictions4–450%

Edges3–260%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMarta Kostyuk · 89 places

Ashlyn Krueger

United States

Born on May 7, 2004. She reached a career-high No. 29 on July 14, 2025. Her big serve and first-strike patterns have translated especially well on grass during this 2026 Wimbledon run.

Current ranking: #102
Peak ranking: #29 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Marta Kostyuk

Ukraine

Born on June 28, 2002. She reached a career-high No. 12 on June 8, 2026 after a season that included the Madrid WTA 1000 title and a French Open semifinal. She is coached by Talina Beiko and Sandra Zaniewska.

Current ranking: #13
Peak ranking: #12 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Jul 2026, 06:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Marta Kostyuk's elite 18-1 run and high-quality grass wins over top-30 opponents make her the favorite against Ashlyn Krueger's 10-match streak against lower-ranked players.

Expect a competitive match with Kostyuk likely to win, but Krueger's form suggests she can keep it close, favoring over 21.5 total games and Krueger +3.5 games.

Context

Krueger won the Ilkley WTA 125 title on June 14, then played three qualifying matches at Roehampton from June 23-25.
- She has added three main-draw wins at Wimbledon, including a three-set battle with Donna Vekic on June 30.
- This is her 10th grass match since June 9, with only one day off between qualifying and the main draw.
- Kostyuk has played only three grass matches in 2026, all at Wimbledon, and had a month off after Roland Garros.
Kostyuk defeated Iga Swiatek (No. 3) and Mirra Andreeva (No. 5) en route to the French Open semifinals.
- She also beat Jessica Pegula (No. 4) and Elina Svitolina (No. 8) during her Madrid title run.
- Krueger's highest-ranked victim during her 10-match streak is Donna Vekic (No. 34).
- Kostyuk's last loss was to Andreeva in the French Open semifinals; she has since won three straight at Wimbledon.
In her 10-match grass streak, Krueger faced only one top-50 player (Vekic, No. 34) and needed three sets to win.
- Her other opponents had an average ranking of 175, with five ranked outside the top 150.
- Earlier in June, Krueger lost in straight sets to Nikola Bartunkova (No. 48) on grass.
- Kostyuk has already beaten Emma Navarro (No. 26) in three sets at this tournament.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Kostyuk's elite recent form (18-1 run) and higher-quality grass wins over top-30 opponents give her a clear edge over Krueger's streak against lower-ranked players.
- Kostyuk has won 18 of her last 19 matches across all surfaces, including a French Open semifinal and Madrid WTA 1000 title in 2026.
- Kostyuk's recent grass form: 3-0 at Wimbledon 2026 with wins over Navarro (rank 26), Blinkova, and Podoroska, dropping only one set.
- Krueger is on a 10-match grass winning streak, but her opponents' average rank is lower (best win vs Vekic, rank 34).
- H2H: Krueger won their only meeting in 2025 on hard court, but Kostyuk's current form and ranking (13 vs 102) suggest a reversal.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMarta KostyukEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players are in strong form and likely to produce a competitive match with at least one tight set, pushing the total games over 21.5.
- Krueger's last 5 matches averaged 20.6 games, with three going over 21.5.
- Kostyuk's last 5 matches averaged 22.2 games, with three going over 21.5.
- Both players have shown the ability to extend sets: Krueger played a 3-setter vs Vekic, Kostyuk played a 3-setter vs Blinkova.
- Grass courts often produce tight sets with few breaks, increasing total games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Krueger's strong grass form and competitive H2H indicate she will cover a +3.5 game handicap, even if Kostyuk wins.
- Krueger's last 5 wins have an average game margin of +5.2, and her only recent loss was by 3 games.
- Kostyuk's last 5 wins have an average game margin of +6.0, but against top-100 opponents it drops to +3.5.
- Krueger's grass form suggests she can keep the match close even if she loses.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAshlyn Krueger +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players serving well and in form, the first set is likely to be tight, exceeding 9.5 games.
- Krueger's first sets in her last 5 matches: 6-3, 6-1, 3-6, 7-6, 6-3 (average 9.4 games).
- Kostyuk's first sets in her last 5 matches: 6-2, 6-7, 6-1, 6-1, 6-3 (average 9.2 games).
- Both players have strong serves on grass, reducing breaks and extending games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Historical second-set averages hover around 9.0, but the competitive nature of this matchup suggests a slight lean toward over 9.5 games.
- Krueger's second sets in her last 5 matches: 6-2, 6-0, 7-6, 6-1, 5-7 (average 9.0 games).
- Kostyuk's second sets in her last 5 matches: 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-3, 2-6 (average 9.0 games).
- If the first set is close, the second set often remains competitive as both players adjust.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Kostyuk's dominant first-set record in recent matches and high career conversion rate make her the favorite to take the opener.
- Kostyuk has won the first set in 13 of her last 15 matches, including all three Wimbledon 2026 matches.
- Krueger has won the first set in 5 of her last 6 matches, but faced a tiebreak in one and lost the first set to Vekic.
- Kostyuk's first-set win conversion rate for her career is 88%, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMarta KostyukEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While both are in dominant form, their recent three-set frequency and competitive H2H suggest a 50% chance of going the distance.
- Krueger has played 3 three-set matches in her last 10 wins.
- Kostyuk has played 3 three-set matches in her last 10 wins.
- Both players have strong deciding-set records: Krueger 55% career, Kostyuk 63% career.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Grass courts amplify serving power, making it likely that combined aces exceed 7.5 in a match expected to be competitive.
- Krueger averages 4.4 aces per match in her career, with higher rates on grass.
- Kostyuk averages 3.9 aces per match, also likely elevated on grass.
- Combined, their average aces per match is 8.3, and grass typically increases ace counts.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double-fault rates, and a tight match on grass may lead to more double faults, pushing the total over 9.5.
- Krueger averages 6.2 double faults per match.
- Kostyuk averages 7.4 double faults per match.
- Combined average is 13.6, and pressure situations in a close match could increase errors.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With strong servers and close sets expected, there is a reasonable chance of at least one tiebreak in the match.
- Krueger has played 2 tiebreaks in her last 6 matches.
- Kostyuk has played 2 tiebreaks in her last 5 matches.
- Both have career tiebreak win percentages around 53-54%, indicating frequent tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 1 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W4-6 6-2 6-2Ashlyn Krueger#102vMarta Kostyuk#13Jan 7, 2025

1 total meetings

Ashlyn Krueger

14W 1L

6-3 6-2#77Daria Snigur

6-1 6-0#545Mariam Bolkvadze

3-6 7-6(3) 6-4#34Donna Vekic

7-6(8) 6-1#157Polina Iatcenko

6-3 5-7 6-3#204Mai Hontama

7-5 7-5#199Gabriela Andrea Knutson

7-5 6-2#194Celine Naef

6-4 3-6 6-4#92Darja Vidmanova

6-1 ret.#196Katie Swan

6-4 3-6 6-2#245Alicia Dudeney

6-2 6-2#136Elvina Kalieva

6-4 7-6(7)#48Nikola Bartunkova

2-6 6-3 6-4#117Taylah Preston

6-1 6-3#42Janice Tjen

6-4 6-3#123Himeno Sakatsume

Marta Kostyuk

14W 1L

6-2 4-6 6-1#26Emma Navarro

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#114Anna Blinkova

6-1 6-2#574Nadia Podoroska

6-1 6-3#5Mirra Andreeva

6-3 2-6 6-2#8Elina Svitolina

7-5 6-1#3Iga Swiatek

6-4 6-3#62Viktorija Golubic

6-7(4) 6-3 6-3#101Katie Volynets

6-2 6-3#91Oksana Selekhmeteva

6-3 7-5#5Mirra Andreeva

6-2 1-6 6-1#28Anastasia Potapova

7-6(1) 6-0#12Linda Noskova

6-2 6-3#50Caty McNally

6-1 6-4#4Jessica Pegula

6-1 6-3#84Yulia Putintseva

Ashlyn Krueger #102United States0Marta Kostyuk #13Ukraine2

Player Profiles

Ashlyn Krueger

Marta Kostyuk

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ashlyn Krueger +3.5

Over 21.5

Marta Kostyuk 2-0

Marta Kostyuk

Marta Kostyuk

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Krueger, A 2-1 @ 5.50

Head-to-Head

Ashlyn Krueger

Marta Kostyuk