Alexander Shevchenko #89Kazakhstan11 – 2Kyrian Jacquet #120France2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70

The read

Both players' recent match averages exceed 24 games, and with a surface switch to hard court, a competitive match is likely to surpass 21.5 games.

• Shevchenko's last 15 matches average 24.1 games per match (362 total games / 15 matches).
• Jacquet's last 15 matches average 24.9 games per match (374 total games / 15 matches).
• Both players have similar games-won percentages (Shevchenko 49.7%, Jacquet 52.9%), suggesting competitive sets.
• H2H matches were one-sided, but current form and surface change may lead to tighter contests.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Jacquet's recent form and hard-court prowess make it likely he will keep the match within 3.5 games, even if Shevchenko wins.

• Shevchenko's average games-won margin in last 15 matches is -0.2 (180 won, 182 lost), indicating tight matches.
• Jacquet's average games-won margin in last 15 matches is +1.6 (198 won, 176 lost), showing he often keeps matches close.
• H2H matches were one-sided, but current form and surface suggest a closer contest.
• Jacquet's strong hard-court record (8-2 in 2026) supports his ability to stay within 3.5 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With both players showing competitive first sets in recent matches and no dominant server, the first set is likely to exceed 9.5 games.

• Shevchenko's last 15 matches: first-set average games ~9.7 (based on parsed sets, many went to 10+ games).
• Jacquet's last 15 matches: first-set average games ~9.5, with several tiebreaks and 7-5/7-6 sets.
• Both players have similar return points won percentages (Shevchenko 35.4%, Jacquet 39.2%), indicating potential for breaks and extended sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Similar to the first set, the second set is likely to be competitive and exceed 9.5 games given both players' recent set-length trends.

• Shevchenko's last 15 matches: second-set average games ~9.2, with several sets going to 10+ games.
• Jacquet's last 15 matches: second-set average games ~9.8, including multiple tiebreaks and 7-5 sets.
• Both players have break-point conversion rates around 35-40%, suggesting sets can extend.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players frequently going to three sets in recent matches and no clear dominance, a deciding set is more likely than not.

• Shevchenko's last 15 matches: 7 of 15 went to three sets (46.7%).
• Jacquet's last 15 matches: 6 of 15 went to three sets (40%).
• Both players have deciding-set win percentages around 52-53%, indicating they are evenly matched in tight matches.
• Surface change and Jacquet's fatigue may lead to a closer contest than H2H suggests.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10

The read

Shevchenko's historical dominance in first sets against Jacquet and high career conversion rate suggest a slight edge in the opener.

• Shevchenko's first-set win conversion career rate is 85%, indicating he often capitalizes early.
• Jacquet's first-set win conversion career rate is 81%, also strong.
• In their three H2H matches, Shevchenko won the first set comfortably each time (6-2, 6-3, 7-5).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players averaging over 5 aces per match and the hard-court surface potentially aiding serves, the total aces could exceed 12.5.

• Shevchenko averages 5.5 aces per match in last 15 matches.
• Jacquet averages 6.1 aces per match in last 15 matches.
• Combined average is 11.6 aces per match, but on hard courts, ace counts can be higher.
• Both players have first-serve points won percentages above 70%, indicating effective serving.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined double-fault average of 6.0 suggests a slight lean toward over 5.5, though confidence is low due to surface uncertainty.

• Shevchenko averages 2.7 double faults per match in last 15 matches.
• Jacquet averages 3.3 double faults per match in last 15 matches.
• Combined average is 6.0 double faults per match.
• Jacquet's double-fault rate is higher on clay (4.0 per match), but hard-court data is limited.