Prostejov - Czech RepublicFinished

Predictions graded

Alexander Shevchenko #88Kazakhstan2Raul Brancaccio #239Italy1

Sets 7-6 · 4-6 · 6-1Mon 1 Jun 2026, 15:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions6–186%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlexander Shevchenko · 151 places

Alexander Shevchenko

Kazakhstan

Former world No. 45, reached on 19 February 2024. His public results profile shows the heaviest career match volume on clay, and he arrived in Prostejov still ranked inside the top 100.

Current ranking: #88
Peak ranking: #45 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Raul Brancaccio

Italy

Former world No. 121, reached on 13 February 2023. Most of his match volume and title count are on clay, and Tennis Explorer lists a Menorca Challenger title in 2026.

Current ranking: #239
Peak ranking: #121 · 2023
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 May 2026, 15:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Shevchenko is favored but his clay form is inconsistent, while Brancaccio brings live clay results and a recent title.

The match is likely to be close, with value on Brancaccio +3.5 games and over 21.5 total games. Shevchenko's short odds are a trap given Brancaccio's competitiveness and surface confidence.

Context

Brancaccio lost 6-0 5-7 6-2 to Dedura on 30 May and beat Zink 6-4 3-6 6-3 on 28 May.
- Both matches went the distance, totaling over 2.5 hours of court time each.
- He is scheduled for Prostejov on 1 June, giving him only one full day between events.
Shevchenko lost 6-2 6-4 6-2 to world No. 42 Michelsen at Roland Garros on 25 May.
- He is 6-8 on clay in 2026, with losses to players ranked outside the top 40 like Collignon (62) and Dedura (287).
- In his last 15 matches, he has won only 6, with 5 of those wins coming against opponents ranked 118 or lower.
Brancaccio is 15-10 on clay in 2026, including a title run at the Menorca Challenger.
- He has taken sets off top-200 opponents like Wawrinka (113) and Cecchinato (178) in recent weeks.
- His last five matches include three three-setters, showing he stays competitive even in defeat.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alexander Shevchenko

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Shevchenko's higher ranking and H2H win give him a structural edge, but the odds overstate his probability.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Alexander Shevchenko

1.29fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Shevchenko's 85% career first-set win conversion and Brancaccio's slow-start pattern support a set 1 win, but the odds are too short to offer value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Shevchenko's higher ranking (88 vs 239), H2H edge, and Brancaccio's fatigue from recent three-setters give him a structural advantage.
- Shevchenko leads H2H 1-0, winning in three sets on clay in 2023.
- Shevchenko's career clay win percentage is 199-152 (56.7%), while Brancaccio is 304-225 (57.5%), but Shevchenko has faced higher-ranked opponents recently.
- Brancaccio has a short turnaround after two three-set matches on 28 and 30 May, while Shevchenko last played on 25 May.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlexander ShevchenkoEstimated chance65%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown a tendency for tight, extended matches on clay, and the H2H suggests a close contest.
- Their only H2H match had 37 games (5-7, 7-5, 7-6).
- Brancaccio's last 5 matches averaged 24.4 games, with 4 of 5 going over 21.5.
- Shevchenko's recent clay matches have been competitive, with 3 of his last 5 going over 21.5 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brancaccio's competitiveness in recent matches suggests he can keep it close even in defeat.
- Brancaccio's last 5 losses were by margins of 8, 3, 2, 5, and 8 games, with 3 of 5 within 3.5 games.
- Shevchenko's last 5 wins were by margins of 7, 2, 8, 6, and 6 games, but against lower-ranked opponents.
- Brancaccio has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 matches against top-100 opponents.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostRaul Brancaccio +3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Shevchenko's superior early-match intensity and Brancaccio's potential fatigue make a fast start likely.
- Shevchenko has won the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches, including against top-50 opponents.
- Brancaccio lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, often starting slowly.
- Shevchenko's first-set win conversion rate is 85% career, indicating strong front-running.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlexander ShevchenkoEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double fault rates, and the pressure of a close match could inflate the count.
- Shevchenko's double fault rate is 3.3%, Brancaccio's is 4.7%.
- In their H2H, they combined for 20 double faults.
- Brancaccio has averaged 3.2 double faults per match in his last 5, Shevchenko 2.8.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W5-7 7-5 7-6(8)Alexander Shevchenko#88vRaul Brancaccio#239Sep 13, 2023

1 total meetings

Alexander Shevchenko

6W 9L

6-2 6-4 6-2#42Alex Michelsen

7-6(5) 4-0 ret.#62Raphael Collignon

6-1 3-6 6-1#118Hugo Gaston

6-4 6-4#15Karen Khachanov

6-3 4-6 7-6(5)#59Camilo Ugo Carabelli

7-6(8) 7-5#92Yibing Wu

6-2 6-2#230Dan Added

6-4 6-1#41Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

6-3 7-6(5)#287Diego Dedura

6-1 6-3#46Marin Cilic

7-6(3) 7-6(4)#117Roberto Bautista Agut

6-0 ret.#124Andrea Pellegrino

7-5 6-1#55Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-2 6-4#677Radu David Turcanu

6-4 7-6(2)#32Ugo Humbert

Raul Brancaccio

8W 7L

6-0 5-7 6-2#287Diego Dedura

6-2 4-6 7-6(5)#113Stan Wawrinka

0-6 6-2 6-2#171Clement Tabur

6-4 3-6 6-3#325Tyler Zink

3-6 6-3 6-3#328Taro Daniel

6-3 7-5#162Zdenek Kolar

4-6 6-4 6-4#178Marco Cecchinato

6-3 6-4#251Jay Clarke

5-7 6-1 6-4#159Toby Samuel

7-5 7-5#310Jonas Forejtek

6-2 6-2#138Stefano Travaglia

7-5 7-5#465Jacopo Vasami

6-1 6-4#323Alex Martinez

6-3 0-6 7-6(2)#301Dali Blanch

6-0 5-7 6-1#326Matteo Martineau