Jessica Pegula #3United States22 – 0Anna Kalinskaya #20Russia0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33

The read

Pegula's superior hard-court pedigree, dominant H2H on the surface, and stronger recent overall form give her a clear edge, though Kalinskaya's Washington comfort keeps it competitive.

• Pegula leads H2H 4-1, including 3-0 on hard courts; most recent meeting Jan 2026 on hard she won 6-2 2-6 6-4.
• Pegula's last15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%) vs Kalinskaya 10-5 (66.7%); Pegula total points won 54% vs 50.4%.
• Pegula hard-court career win% ~68% (306-144) vs Kalinskaya ~56% (183-144); Pegula 2026 hard record 20-4.
• Kalinskaya last15 hard sample only 2 matches (both wins) but double faults 9 per match and first serve 50%.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40

The read

Pegula's stronger serve and break-point resilience in recent matches suggest she is slightly more likely to start well, though both are strong front-runners.

• Pegula first-set win conversion career 87%; Kalinskaya 89%.
• Pegula last15 first serve points won 69.5% vs Kalinskaya 63.9%.
• Kalinskaya last15 break points saved only 45% vs Pegula 57.6%.
• Both players dropped first set in their last match but Pegula's recovery was more dominant (6-0 third set).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Kalinskaya's high double-fault rate, especially on hard courts, combined with Pegula's low rate still pushes the total over 6.5, with Kalinskaya likely contributing the majority.

• Kalinskaya last15 double faults per match 5.2; Pegula 1.3, combined 6.5.
• Kalinskaya hard-court last15 (2 matches) 9 double faults per match.
• H2H double faults: Pegula 17, Kalinskaya 17 in 5 matches (combined 6.8 per match).
• Kalinskaya's second-serve vulnerability (43% points won last15) leads to pressure and double faults.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Combined ace rates from recent and H2H data hover around 7-8, and with Pegula's power on hard courts, over 7.5 is a marginal lean.

• Pegula last15 aces per match 4.3; Kalinskaya 2.9, combined 7.2.
• Pegula hard-court last15 (1 match) had 9 aces; Kalinskaya hard-court last15 (2 matches) 4 per match.
• H2H aces: Pegula 31 in 5 matches (6.2 per match), Kalinskaya 9 (1.8), combined 8.0.
• Washington hard courts typically favor servers.