Jessica Pegula #5United States11 – 2Cori Gauff #7United States2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

The competitive H2H history and both players' recent three-set battles on grass suggest a close match likely exceeding 21.5 total games.

• Last 3 H2H matches: 29, 22, 17 games; 2 of 3 went over 21.5.
• Both players have been involved in tight matches at Wimbledon: Pegula's last 4 matches averaged 20.5 games; Gauff's last 4 averaged 22.5 games.
• Gauff's last three matches all went to three sets; Pegula's last match went three sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The recent trend of three-set matches for both players, especially Gauff, and the competitive H2H make a deciding set likely.

• Gauff's last 3 matches all went to 3 sets; Pegula's last match went to 3 sets.
• H2H: 3 of 8 meetings went to 3 sets, including 2 of the last 4.
• Both players have deciding-set win rates above 55% (Pegula 56%, Gauff 66%).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Pegula's strong recent first-set performance and Gauff's potential fatigue from a late finish make Pegula slightly more likely to take the opener.

• Pegula has won the first set in 4 of her last 5 matches; Gauff lost the first set in 2 of her last 5.
• Pegula's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career; Gauff's is 92%, but Pegula's recent trend is stronger.
• In their 2024 Wimbledon meeting, Pegula won the first set 7-5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Gauff's high double fault rate, especially evident in H2H and on grass, makes over 7.5 double faults likely even in a two-set match.

• Gauff's double fault rate is 8.1% (career), Pegula's is 3.7%; in H2H, Gauff has 55 double faults in 8 matches (6.9 per match).
• In their 2024 Wimbledon match, total double faults were 11 (Gauff 8, Pegula 3).
• Gauff has averaged 5.6 double faults per match in her last 5 matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The grass surface and Gauff's superior ace rate, combined with a likely three-set match, push the total aces projection above 7.5.

• Gauff averages 5.1% ace rate; Pegula 3.7%, but in H2H Gauff has 31 aces in 8 matches (3.9 per match) and Pegula 14 (1.8 per match).
• In their 2024 Wimbledon meeting (grass), total aces were 7 (Gauff 5, Pegula 2).
• Grass surface typically increases ace counts; both have higher ace rates on grass historically.