Under 4.5
Market 46.5% · BetBugs 82%
Bilbao's low-scoring away profile and five clean sheets point to a game short of five goals.
Copa del ReyFull timeFeatured
Predictions gradedPre-match view
A La Liga side against a Tercera RFEF club usually resolves itself, but Athletic Bilbao have won once in four competitive away matches and scored 0.75 goals per game in them.
Bilbao to win is the likely outcome; at 1.01 there is nothing in the price. Fewer than five goals in the tie at 2.15 and Bilbao to score fewer than four at 2.80 are the two quoted prices that hold up.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 46.5% · BetBugs 82%
Bilbao's low-scoring away profile and five clean sheets point to a game short of five goals.
Athletic Bilbao under 3.5Market 35.7% · BetBugs 90%
Bilbao's away scoring rate makes a four-goal haul unlikely.
Other edges · 3
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
Athletic BilbaoBetBugs 68% · Market 99%
The division gap and Bilbao's defensive solidity make an away win the most likely single result.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

