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Istra 1961Hajduk Split

Mon 26 Oct 2026, 17:0026 Oct, 17:00

7Probabilities4Priced4Edges70%Strongest

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Quick Take

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Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 12:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Hajduk Split lead the HNL and visit an Istra side missing four players, but Hajduk's two league away defeats and Istra's 10 goals in five home games keep this from being a formality.

Hajduk to avoid defeat is the likelier outcome, though at 1.22 it is priced as near-certain. None of the four quoted prices — that double chance, over 2.5 goals, a first-half goal, both teams scoring — offers anything.

Context

Istra are without four players through injury and Hajduk are missing Roko Brajković, but the bigger sporting condition is Hajduk's split between home dominance (5W-1D-0L) and away vulnerability (2W-0D-2L) in the HNL this season.

The 2-2 in Split is the one recent blemish on Hajduk's record in this fixture and shows Istra can score against them. At Istra's own ground the last two league meetings finished 1-3 and 0-3 to Hajduk. That contrast is why the visitors' edge looks clear without being absolute.
- 9 August 2026, HNL: Hajduk Split 2-2 Istra 1961.
- The only draw in the five meetings listed between 3 August 2025 and 9 August 2026.
Ten rounds in, Hajduk's points have come mostly at home, where they have conceded three times. Away they have lost twice and shipped six in four matches, so a trip to a side that has scored 10 goals in five home league games is not a formality.
- 2026 HNL after 10 rounds: Hajduk 1st, 22 points, 7W-1D-2L, 19 goals for, 9 against.
- Hajduk at home: 6 played, 5W-1D-0L, 12-3. Away: 4 played, 2W-0D-2L, 7-6.
- Istra at home: 5 played, 2W-1D-2L, 10-8.
That afternoon is the clearest evidence this Hajduk side can be opened up on the road: they had the greater share of the ball and the shots but conceded three. Istra average two goals across their five home league games and need that scoring to hold if they are to make the same kind of afternoon possible.
- 20 September 2026, HNL: HNK Rijeka 3-0 Hajduk Split.
- Hajduk had 13 shots (7 on target) to Rijeka's 7 (4 on target).
- Hajduk trailed 2-0 at half-time.
That result warns against reading shot counts as control: Hajduk gave up 18 attempts and four on target yet still took the points. For this fixture it suggests the leaders can absorb pressure and score in both halves, which is a counterweight to any expectation of a high-scoring away win.
- 10 October 2026, HNL: Hajduk Split 2-1 Dinamo Zagreb.
- Shots: Hajduk 10, Dinamo 18; on target 3 v 4.
- Hajduk scored once in each half.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Hajduk Split

1.22fair 1.45

BetBugs 69% · Market 82%

−13.0ppshort

Hajduk are the stronger side and the draw covers their mixed away league form.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.65fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 60.6%

−2.6ppshort

Both teams' goal averages and the H2H record point to at least three goals.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

−10.0ppshort

Both sides have first-half scoring and conceding numbers that make an early goal likely.

Both Teams to ScoreUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 61.7%

−5.7ppshort

The H2H pattern and both teams' home/away scoring rates support both sides finding the net.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 69%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Hajduk are the stronger side and the draw covers their mixed away league form.
- Hajduk have 12 wins in 15 competitive matches and 5 wins in 6 away matches.
- Istra are 7th with 12 points from 10 HNL games; Hajduk are 1st with 22.
- Hajduk won the last two HNL meetings at Istra 3-1 and 3-0.
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or Hajduk SplitMarket price1.22Estimated chance69%

Goals3 outcomes · top 70%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Both teams' goal averages and the H2H record point to at least three goals.
- All five recent H2H meetings produced at least three goals.
- Istra average 2.0 goals at home and concede 1.6 at home.
- Hajduk average 2.27 goals overall and 2.33 away.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.65Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both sides have first-half scoring and conceding numbers that make an early goal likely.
- Istra average 1.0 first-half goal and concede 0.73.
- Hajduk average 0.93 first-half goal and concede 0.4.
- Both teams have first-half scoring and conceding evidence from tracked matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.25Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
The H2H pattern and both teams' home/away scoring rates support both sides finding the net.
- Both teams scored in four of the last five H2H meetings.
- Istra have scored 10 goals in five home HNL matches.
- Hajduk have scored 7 goals in four away HNL matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.62Estimated chance56%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 66%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shot-on-target averages sit below the line, especially for Hajduk.
- Istra matches average 10.4 shots on target combined (5.4 for, 5.0 against).
- Hajduk matches average 8.9 combined (6.0 for, 2.9 against).
- Hajduk's last six competitive matches averaged 8.0 combined shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderUnder 11.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hajduk's away matches have produced few corners, pulling the combined expectation under the line.
- Istra matches average 10.6 total corners (4.9 for, 5.7 against).
- Hajduk matches average 7.6 total corners (4.6 for, 3.1 against).
- Hajduk's last six competitive matches averaged 6.5 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent card totals for both sides sit around or above the line.
- Istra matches average 3.7 yellow cards (1.7 for, 2.0 against).
- Hajduk matches average 3.7 yellow cards (2.0 for, 1.7 against).
- Hajduk's last six competitive matches averaged 4.7 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 3.5Estimated chance54%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

D2-2HNK Hajduk SplitvIstra 1961Aug 9, 2026HNL

L1-3Istra 1961vHNK Hajduk SplitApr 7, 2026HNL

W1-2HNK Hajduk SplitvIstra 1961Jan 25, 2026HNL

L0-3Istra 1961vHNK Hajduk SplitOct 19, 2025HNL

L2-1HNK Hajduk SplitvIstra 1961Aug 3, 2025HNL

3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

HNL 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Istra 1961	10	3	3	4	17-16	12	LWLWD
1	Hajduk Split Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)	10	7	1	2	19-9	22	WWLWW

10pt gap between teamsHajduk Split leads the league

Recent Form

Istra 1961

Istra 1961

L0-2NK Lokomotiva ZagrebOct 17HNL

W3-1NK OsijekOct 10HNL

L0-1HNK GoricaSep 19HNL

W3-2RudesSep 13HNL

W5-0ZagorecSep 8CUP

D0-0NK VarazdinSep 4HNL

D2-2Dinamo ZagrebAug 29HNL

L2-3HNK RijekaAug 23HNL

W3-0NK Slaven BelupoAug 15HNL

D2-2HNK Hajduk SplitAug 9HNL

L2-3NK Lokomotiva ZagrebAug 1HNL

D2-2LecceJul 25FRI

W5-2Orijent 1919Jul 21FRI

D2-2UdineseJul 18FRI

W2-1Milton Keynes DonsJul 17FRI

Hajduk Split

Hajduk Split

W1-0FC ThunOct 22UEF

W1-0NK VarazdinOct 18HNL

W2-1AjaxOct 15UEF

W2-1Dinamo ZagrebOct 10HNL

L0-3HNK RijekaSep 20HNL

W1-0NK Slaven BelupoSep 13HNL

W2-0VardaracSep 8CUP

W4-0RudesSep 6HNL

W2-0NK Lokomotiva ZagrebAug 31HNL

W4-0NK OsijekAug 23HNL

D2-2Raków CzęstochowaAug 20UEF

W2-1HNK GoricaAug 16HNL

W4-0FK Zalgiris VilniusAug 13UEF

D2-2Istra 1961Aug 9HNL

W5-2FK Zalgiris VilniusAug 6UEF

Squad & Injuries

Istra 1961

28 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Hajduk Split

32 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders11

Goalkeeper5