Montevideo Wanderers0Progreso Montevideo1

HT 0–0Sun 25 Oct 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 7–6On targetOn target 2–3CornersCorners 5–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 10:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Wanderers' home scoring record against Progreso's better recent results makes this tighter than the table suggests.

Wanderers look the likelier side to avoid defeat and to score, but 1.30 for them to win or draw asks too much given Progreso's two away wins and two wins in the last five meetings. The 1.22 on Wanderers scoring at least once is the one price that holds up; 1.30 for under 3.5 goals and 1.38 for under 1.5 first-half goals also ask more than the record supports.

Context

Progreso's last five league results read W-D-L-W-W, and their 33-match record of nine wins, five draws and 19 defeats still leaves them 16th on 32 points. The short run is stronger than Wanderers' recent league form, which is why the table gap alone understates them.
- Progreso's league form string is W-D-L-W-W, most recent first.
- Progreso have 9 wins, 5 draws and 19 defeats from 33 league matches, placing them 16th on 32 points.
Wanderers' home scoring is steady rather than prolific, one goal per match across the split.
The split is modest — two wins, three draws and two defeats in seven home matches — but scoring in each of them, one goal per game, is the dependable part. Their 0-3 defeat at Racing on 17 October shows a blank is still possible.
- Wanderers' seven-match home split reads 2W-3D-2L.
- Wanderers scored in all seven of those home matches, seven goals in total.
- Wanderers scored in 13 of 15 competitive matches in the wider window.
The clubs’ previous Apertura meeting at Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera finished level on 27 March 2025, with both sides scoring only from the spot. That provides a concrete recent reference point for this pairing and venue. It does not establish a current tactical or selection advantage, as the fixture was played more than a year earlier.
- Wanderers and Progreso drew 1-1 in the Apertura on 27 March 2025 at Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera.
- Progreso led 1-0 at half-time and both goals were penalties.
- Matteo Copelotti scored Progreso’s penalty before Rodrigo Rivero equalised for Wanderers.
- The match had an attendance of 500 and Eduardo Varela was the referee.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 09:58 · Europe/BucharestTransfermarkt match reportwww.transfermarkt.us · 27 Mar 2025
Wanderers hold the freshest head-to-head win, but Progreso took the two meetings immediately before it.
Wanderers' 2-0 win on 11 July 2026 is the freshest reference point in the series, but Progreso won the two meetings before it, 2-1 in April 2026 and 2-0 in September 2025. The last five meetings produced two, three, two, two and no goals.
- Wanderers beat Progreso 2-0 at home in the Primera División on 11 July 2026.
- The five meetings on record run from 10 November 2024 to 11 July 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Montevideo Wanderers or Draw

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

−11.9ppshort

Wanderers' solid home record and Progreso's poor away slate make a home win or draw the likelier combined outcome.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 3.5

1.30fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 76.9%

−6.9ppshort

Both sides have low-scoring profiles and recent head-to-heads rarely threaten four goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Wanderers' solid home record and Progreso's poor away slate make a home win or draw the likelier combined outcome.
- Wanderers are 2W-3D-2L in seven home matches.
- Progreso are 2W-1D-5L in eight away matches.
- Wanderers sit 7th with 50 points; Progreso are 16th with 32.
- Wanderers won the most recent head-to-head 2-0.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostMontevideo Wanderers or DrawEstimated chance65%

Goals2 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Wanderers have found the net consistently, especially at home, and only need one goal.
- Wanderers have scored in 13 of 15 competitive matches.
- They scored in all 7 home matches in the split, with 7 goals total.
- They scored in five of their last six league games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostMontevideo Wanderers over 0.5Estimated chance84%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both sides have low-scoring profiles and recent head-to-heads rarely threaten four goals.
- Wanderers average 3.13 total goals in 15 matches; Progreso 2.27 in 15.
- Wanderers' home split averages 2.86 total goals; Progreso's away split 2.38.
- The last five head-to-heads produced 2, 3, 2, 2 and 0 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
The combined first-half goal rates are low, and recent first halves have stayed under two goals.
- Wanderers average 1.47 first-half goals in 15 matches; Progreso 0.73.
- Wanderers' home split first-half total is 1.43; Progreso's away split is 0.75.
- The last six first halves for each side produced at most two goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance67%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have generated high shot volumes, with Progreso especially allowing plenty.
- Wanderers' tracked matches average 15.7 total shots; Progreso's average 22.3.
- Progreso's away split averages 24.5 total shots in two matches.
- Recent total shot counts include 32 in Progreso's draw at Penarol.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 13.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The available shot-on-target data sits around the line, with several recent matches clearing it.
- Wanderers' tracked matches average 8.3 shots on target; Progreso's average 9.0.
- Progreso's away split averages 10.0 shots on target in two matches.
- Their last three matches produced combined shot-on-target totals between 6 and 12.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 7.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Card totals in the available matches have generally stayed below six, though with little room.
- Wanderers' tracked matches average 4.0 total cards; Progreso's average 4.3.
- Recent total card counts: Wanderers 2, 4, 6; Progreso 3, 2, 8.
- Only one of six recent tracked matches reached seven total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 5.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' tracked corner totals sit just above the line, helped by high opponent corner counts.
- Wanderers' three tracked matches average 10.3 total corners.
- Progreso's three tracked matches average 9.0 total corners.
- Recent totals include 16 in Wanderers' last match and 14 in Progreso's last match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%