Progreso Montevideo vs Deportivo Maldonado: result, stats and head-to-head

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Deportivo Maldonado's superior league position and away form outweigh Progreso's home advantage, though H2H venue effect tempers confidence.
- Deportivo Maldonado rank 3rd with 42 points, Progreso rank 16th with 16 points.
- Deportivo Maldonado away record: 3W 2D 3L in Apertura, Progreso home record: 1W 2D 5L.
- Last 5 H2H: home team won 4, draw 1; Progreso won last meeting 1-0 at home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDeportivo MaldonadoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Progreso's poor overall and home form makes a home win unlikely, supporting the double chance for the away side or draw.
- Progreso have lost 15 of 23 matches this season.
- Deportivo Maldonado have lost only 5 of 23 matches.
- Progreso home record: 1W 2D 5L in Apertura.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Deportivo MaldonadoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Deportivo Maldonado's superior first-half performance makes them slight favourites to lead at the break, but draw is also likely.
- Deportivo Maldonado led at half-time in 27% of matches, trailed in 13%.
- Progreso led at half-time in 13% of matches, trailed in 53%.
- Deportivo Maldonado average 0.9 first-half goals vs Progreso's 0.4.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDeportivo MaldonadoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an away win is a plausible sequence given Deportivo Maldonado's second-half strength.
- Progreso often trail at half-time (53%) but sometimes recover.
- Deportivo Maldonado have drawn several matches at half-time.
- H2H last meeting: Progreso 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado (half-time 0-0).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/Deportivo MaldonadoEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Deportivo Maldonado's attacking output and Progreso's defensive frailty suggest a decent chance of at least three total goals.
- Deportivo Maldonado average 1.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
- Progreso average 0.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match.
- Combined average goals per match: 2.3, but Deportivo Maldonado's recent matches include several high-scoring games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score while also conceding, making both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- Progreso have scored in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- Deportivo Maldonado have conceded in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- H2H last meeting: Progreso 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado, but previous meetings saw both teams score.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Deportivo Maldonado's strong first-half scoring record increases the likelihood of a first-half goal.
- Deportivo Maldonado average 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- Progreso average 0.4 first-half goals per match.
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.3.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to see more goals as teams push for results, and both teams' scoring rates support over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Deportivo Maldonado average 0.8 second-half goals per match (1.7 total - 0.9 first half).
- Progreso average 0.4 second-half goals per match (0.8 total - 0.4 first half).
- Combined second-half goal average: 1.2.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without corner data, this is a speculative pick based on league averages, hence low confidence.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Typical Uruguayan Primera División matches average around 9-10 corners.
- No specific corner trends can be identified from the provided data.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card data is missing, so this is a neutral estimate based on typical league card counts.
- Foul and card data is unavailable for both teams.
- Uruguayan Primera División matches often feature multiple cards.
- No specific discipline trends can be identified from the provided data.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	Progreso Montevideo	23	4	4	15	18-35	16	LLWLL
3	Deportivo Maldonado Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)	23	12	6	5	38-24	42	DDLDW

Progreso Montevideo0Deportivo Maldonado2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Deportivo Maldonado

Over 2.5

Yes

Draw or Deportivo Maldonado

Over 0.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result3 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

@ 3.50

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Progreso Montevideo

Deportivo Maldonado

Squad & Injuries

Progreso Montevideo

Deportivo Maldonado