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Predictions graded

Yeovil Town5Leatherhead2

HT 3–1Tue 20 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions12–192%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Oct 2026, 16:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Leatherhead's three goals in eight minutes turned a 2-0 deficit into a 3-3 and forced this replay, so Yeovil's return to Huish Park is not the formality a two-division gap suggests.

Yeovil should still win, but 1.2 for them to do it asks too much, and 1.35 for over 2.5 goals is no better. The quotes that hold up are both teams to score at 1.8, no goal before half-time at 3.75 and the first half to end level at 2.8.

Context

Yeovil, two divisions above their hosts, led 2-0 before conceding three times inside eight minutes at Fetcham Grove, so the replay exists because of a collapse rather than an even contest. That burst is the clearest evidence available that Leatherhead can hurt this Yeovil side quickly, and it is why the return at Huish Park is not a formality. Against it, Yeovil had won 6-0 at Wealdstone and 6-0 at home to Boston United earlier in October, so one chaotic away spell is thin evidence of a lasting defensive problem. Both managers now prepare for a second meeting in four days having seen each other's shape once already.
- Leatherhead and Yeovil Town drew 3-3 at Fetcham Grove on 17 October 2026 in the FA Cup fourth qualifying round.
- Archie Davies and Brett McGavin put Yeovil 2-0 ahead before three Leatherhead goals in eight minutes turned the tie.
- Johl Powell struck late to level at 3-3 and force the replay.
- The tie was watched by an attendance of 2,000.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 16:11 · Europe/BucharestYeovil Town match reportytfc.net · 18 Oct 2026
Because the draw treats the two clubs as one entry, the prize becomes concrete before kick-off at Huish Park: the winner learns which League One or League Two side it has drawn and whether that tie is at home. That turns a qualifying replay into a match with a named reward attached, and it applies equally to a National League club expected to progress and an Isthmian Premier club two divisions below. Selection and shape are unaffected, but the timing removes the usual vagueness about what progression is actually worth to either dressing room.
- Yeovil Town and Leatherhead share ball number 68 in the first-round draw.
- The draw is broadcast on Monday 19 October from 18:30 BST, the night before the replay.
- League One and League Two clubs enter the competition at the first-round stage.
- The winner of the replay plays the club drawn against ball 68.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 16:11 · Europe/Bucharest
Dean arrived from Farnham Town on 3 October and had already come off the bench at Wealdstone, so he was the newest attacking option rather than a fringe name. Cup-tied status attaches to the competition rather than the round, which is why the restriction that kept him out at Fetcham Grove also applies at Huish Park. Yeovil chose to leave the bench one short rather than fill it, pointing to a forward pool drawn from the players already used in the cup this season. The limitation is that he had played only minutes of league football for the club, so this is about available options rather than lost productivity.
- Owen Dean dropped out of Yeovil's squad at Leatherhead because he was cup-tied.
- No replacement was named on the bench for the tie.
- Yeovil named an unchanged starting line-up from the 6-0 win at Wealdstone.
- Dean joined Yeovil from Farnham Town on 3 October on a deal to 2028.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 16:11 · Europe/BucharestYeovil Town match reportytfc.net · 18 Oct 2026
Leatherhead have been harder to beat on their travels than a two-division gap implies, finding the net in six of seven away matches. Yeovil remain the stronger side and the home favourite, but a replay against opponents who have already scored three times in eight minutes is unlikely to be a procession.
- Leatherhead's seven away matches between 8 August and 6 October 2026 finished 4W-2D-1L.
- They scored in six of those seven away matches and kept two clean sheets.
- Their away average was 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Yeovil are higher-ranked, score heavily at home and have the replay at Huish Park.
- Yeovil are 4W-2D-1L at home, averaging 2.71 goals per home match.
- Leatherhead are two tiers below Yeovil in the English pyramid.
- Yeovil scored in all 14 competitive matches; Leatherhead conceded in 10 of 15.
- The first tie finished 3-3 after Yeovil led 2-0.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYeovil TownEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Yeovil create more before the break at home, while Leatherhead have scored sparingly in away first halves.
- Yeovil average 1.14 first-half goals at home and concede 0.57.
- Leatherhead average 0.71 first-half goals away and concede 0.86.
- The first tie was 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonYeovil TownEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Yeovil score heavily after the break at home and did so three times in the first tie.
- Yeovil average 1.57 second-half goals at home and concede 0.71.
- Leatherhead average 0.86 second-half goals away and concede 0.57.
- The first tie had six second-half goals.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonYeovil TownEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Yeovil are higher-ranked, score heavily at home and have the replay at Huish Park. Both teams have drawn frequently and the first meeting finished level.
- Yeovil are 4W-2D-1L at home, averaging 2.71 goals per home match.
- Leatherhead are two tiers below Yeovil in the English pyramid.
- Yeovil drew 5 of 14 competitive matches, including 2 of 7 at home.
- Leatherhead drew 4 of 15, including 2 of 7 away.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonYeovil Town or DrawEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Yeovil create more before the break at home, while Leatherhead have scored sparingly in away first halves. Leatherhead have repeatedly reached half-time level, and the first tie was goalless at the break.
- Yeovil average 1.14 first-half goals at home and concede 0.57.
- Leatherhead average 0.71 first-half goals away and concede 0.86.
- The first tie was 0-0 at half-time.
- Leatherhead's last six first halves included five 0-0s.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonYeovil Town or DrawEstimated chance81%

Goals7 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Both sides' matches have averaged more than three goals and the first tie produced six.
- Yeovil's competitive matches average 3.79 total goals; their home matches average 4.00.
- Leatherhead's matches average 3.27 total goals; their away matches average 3.00.
- The first meeting produced six goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both teams have scored in most of their matches and did so three times each in the first tie.
- Yeovil scored in all 14 competitive matches; Leatherhead scored in 13 of 15.
- Yeovil's home matches had both teams scoring in 5 of 7; Leatherhead's away matches in 4 of 7.
- The first meeting finished 3-3.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Yeovil have averaged nearly three goals at home and scored in every home match.
- Yeovil scored 19 goals in 7 home matches, an average of 2.71.
- Yeovil scored in all 7 home matches.
- Leatherhead conceded 10 goals in 7 away matches, an average of 1.43.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonYeovil Town over 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leatherhead have often been limited to one goal and Yeovil keep clean sheets at home.
- Leatherhead scored once or not at all in four of their last six matches.
- Yeovil kept four clean sheets in 14 matches, including two in seven at home.
- Leatherhead's away average is 1.57 goals per match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostLeatherhead under 1.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leatherhead have scored in most matches, including three against Yeovil.
- Leatherhead scored in 13 of 15 matches and in 6 of 7 away.
- Yeovil conceded in 10 of 14 matches, including 5 of 7 at home.
- The first meeting finished 3-3.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLeatherhead to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Yeovil have found the net in every competitive match this season.
- Yeovil scored in all 14 competitive matches, including all 7 at home.
- Leatherhead conceded in 10 of 15 matches and in 5 of 7 away.
- The first meeting saw Yeovil score three times.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonYeovil Town to scoreEstimated chance94%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Yeovil's home first-half scoring makes a goal before the break more likely than not.
- Yeovil average 1.14 first-half goals at home.
- Leatherhead average 0.71 first-half goals away.
- Yeovil scored in the first half in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half scoring rates point to at least two goals after the break.
- Yeovil average 1.57 second-half goals at home.
- Leatherhead average 0.86 second-half goals away.
- The first tie produced six second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 0W

D3-3LeatherheadvYeovil TownOct 17, 2026FAC

6 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Yeovil Town

D3-3LeatherheadOct 17FAC

W6-0WealdstoneOct 10NAT

W6-0Boston UnitedOct 3NAT

D1-1WorthingSep 29NAT

W1-0Kidderminster HarriersSep 26NAT

W4-1Solihull MoorsSep 18NAT

D1-1Aldershot TownSep 15NAT

L1-4AFC FyldeSep 12NAT

L2-3SouthendSep 5NAT

W3-2TamworthAug 31NAT

W2-1BarrowAug 28NAT

W3-0GatesheadAug 22NAT

D1-1CarlisleAug 15NAT

D1-1ScunthorpeAug 8NAT

L1-2Newport CountyAug 1FRI

Leatherhead

D3-3Yeovil TownOct 17FAC

L1-2CheshuntOct 10NON

L0-3Chatham TownOct 6NON

W1-0Hanworth VillaOct 3FAC

D3-3Three BridgesSep 22NON

W1-0KingstonianSep 19FAC

D0-0WhyteleafeSep 15NON

W2-1AveleySep 12NON

W3-0Croydon AthleticSep 5FAC

L2-3Dulwich HamletAug 31NON

W1-0Eastbourne BoroughAug 29NON

L1-4Maldon & TiptreeAug 22NON

D2-2Burgess Hill TownAug 15NON

W4-1Welling UnitedAug 11NON

W2-1RamsgateAug 8NON

Squad & Injuries

Yeovil Town

23 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Leatherhead

10 available

Attackers2

Midfielders4

Defenders2

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw

Yeovil Town

Over 2.5

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals7 of 8 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Yeovil Town

Leatherhead

Squad & Injuries

Yeovil Town

Leatherhead