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Predictions graded

Sandecja Nowy Sacz4Zawisza Bydgoszcz3

HT 0–1Sun 18 Oct 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–375%

Edges4–357%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Oct 2026, 00:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Two clubs level on 16 points after 11 rounds meet, with Sandecja's home record giving them the edge and Zawisza's away scoring keeping a share of the points live.

Zawisza to win or draw at 2.05, Zawisza to win at 4.0 and both teams not to score in the first half at 1.22 are the prices that hold up. Sandecja at 1.73 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.6 ask for more than the record supports.

Context

Sandecja's own card report confirms their leading scorer, Marcel Płocica, is suspended after a fourth yellow card, and club updates credit him with four league goals. Losing that output weakens the home attack in a game against a direct table neighbour who have been conceding chances. The same report warns three more Sandecja players are one booking from a ban, so the squad carries a disciplinary risk as well as an attacking gap. The club has not indicated who replaces him, so the shape of Sandecja's front line remains unclear.
- Sandecja's card report of 15 October 2026 states Marcel Płocica will sit out the Zawisza match after receiving a fourth yellow card.
- The same club report says three other Sandecja players are one booking away from a suspension.
- A 6 October 2026 club update credits Płocica with his fourth goal of the season.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 · Europe/Bucharest
Sandecja confirmed on 5 October 2026 that Ireneusz Mamrot had taken over until the end of the season, with a 12-month extension option, and he drew 1-1 at Rekord Bielsko-Biała in his first match. The Zawisza fixture is just his second league game, so the team is still adapting to new methods, roles and a likely selection reset. A fresh coach can sharpen or unsettle a side in the opening weeks, making Sandecja's setup harder to read from recent results alone. The club has not published a detailed tactical plan, so any expectation of a specific style remains provisional.
- Sandecja officially announced Ireneusz Mamrot as head coach on 5 October 2026, on a deal until the end of the season with an option to extend by 12 months.
- The club's press review of 10 October 2026 records his debut, a 1-1 draw with Rekord Bielsko-Biała.
- Sandecja announced Rafał Smalec's departure on 5 October 2026; he had led the team in 34 matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 · Europe/Bucharest
Zawisza confirmed on 8 October 2026 that club academy graduate Jakub Łukowski had re-signed until 2027, and he came off the bench in the 11 October defeat by Znicz Pruszków. His arrival adds a proven attacking midfielder to a promoted squad that has created chances but struggled to finish them in recent home games. Local match reporting singled out his substitute cameo as one of the few positives and argued he should start in Nowy Sącz. He has had only one short outing, so his match sharpness and starting status remain unproven.
- Zawisza announced on 8 October 2026 that academy graduate Jakub Łukowski had returned to the club, under contract to 30 June 2027.
- Transfer detail records the 30-year-old attacking midfielder's previous clubs including Korona Kielce, Widzew Łódź, GKS Katowice and Polonia Bytom.
- The club's official match feed confirmed Łukowski entered in the 75th minute against Znicz Pruszków on 11 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 · Europe/Bucharest
A Zawisza match report of 2 October 2026 says right-back Krystian Brzozowski fractured his right fibula and would likely miss the rest of the autumn round. He has not featured since, with Nowak and then Dziarkowski used at right-back, and the reshuffle has coincided with two straight home defeats. Facing a Sandecja side that scored four at home in September, an unsettled full-back position is a genuine vulnerability for the visitors. The club has not published its own injury timeline, so the recovery estimate rests on local reporting.
- Local Zawisza match coverage on 2 October 2026 reports Krystian Brzozowski suffered a fracture of the right fibula bone and was unlikely to return before the spring round.
- The same outlet's 12 October 2026 report records Dziarkowski starting at right-back against Znicz Pruszków, after Nowak had earlier replaced the injured Brzozowski.
- Krystian Brzozowski started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- K. Nowak started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Krystian Brzozowski did not start.
ReportedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sandecja's stronger home record and tighter home defence give them the better chance, even though the sides are level on points.
- Sandecja have 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 6 home league games, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 per home match.
- Sandecja score in 5 of 6 home matches and keep 3 clean sheets at home.
- Zawisza have 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss on the road, conceding 2.0 per away game.
- Sandecja's leading scorer Marcel Płocica is suspended after a fourth yellow card.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSandecja Nowy SaczEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.25
The read
Both teams score little before the break, so a level first half is the most likely outcome.
- Sandecja average 0.67 first-half goals and Zawisza 0.75 away.
- Zawisza's last four league games include two goalless first halves.
- Neither side averages a full first-half goal in the relevant split.
- Sandecja conceded just 0.5 first-half goals per home game.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sandecja's stronger second-half scoring at home gives them the better chance after the break.
- Sandecja average 1.33 second-half goals at home.
- Zawisza concede 1.25 second-half goals per away game.
- Sandecja concede only 0.5 second-half goals at home.
- Sandecja scored 2 second-half goals against Śląsk Wrocław II at home.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSandecja Nowy SaczEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sandecja's home first-half edge gives them the better chance of leading at the break. Both teams score little before the break, so a level first half is the most likely outcome.
- Sandecja average 0.67 first-half goals at home.
- Sandecja led at half-time in the 4-2 home win over Śląsk Wrocław II.
- Sandecja average 0.67 first-half goals and Zawisza 0.75 away.
- Zawisza's last four league games include two goalless first halves.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostSandecja Nowy Sacz or DrawEstimated chance76%

Goals7 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both teams' relevant home and away splits point to a busy scoreline.
- Sandecja home games average 3.0 total goals (2.0 for, 1.0 against).
- Zawisza away games average 4.0 total goals (2.0 for, 2.0 against).
- Zawisza drew 3-3 at Stal Stalowa Wola and scored 4 against Legia II.
- Sandecja's overall matches average 2.69 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both attacks score regularly in these venue splits, so a shared scoreline is likely.
- Zawisza have scored in 3 of 4 away matches.
- Sandecja have scored in 5 of 6 home matches.
- Zawisza's away games saw both teams score in 3 of 4.
- Sandecja's home games saw both score in 3 of 6.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zawisza's recent blanks and Sandecja's home clean sheets favour under.
- Zawisza have scored 4 goals in their last 6 league games.
- They failed to score against Znicz Pruszków and Górnik Łęczna.
- Sandecja keep 3 clean sheets in 6 home games.
- Zawisza's overall average is 1.55 goals per game.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostZawisza Bydgoszcz under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Zawisza's away scoring makes it more likely than not that Sandecja concede.
- Zawisza have scored in 3 of 4 away matches.
- Zawisza average 2.0 goals per away game.
- Sandecja conceded in 3 of 6 home games.
- Sandecja have only 3 home clean sheets from 6.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonZawisza Bydgoszcz to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sandecja's home scoring record makes a Zawisza shut-out unlikely.
- Sandecja scored in 5 of 6 home matches.
- Sandecja average 2.0 goals per home game.
- Zawisza kept no clean sheets in 4 away games.
- Zawisza concede 2.0 per away game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSandecja Nowy Sacz to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams' first halves usually produce at least one goal, so over 0.5 is well supported.
- Sandecja's first halves average 1.17 goals in total.
- Zawisza's away first halves average 1.5 goals in total.
- Zawisza's recent 1-3 and 3-3 games produced first-half goals.
- Only a minority of recent fixtures for both sides were goalless at the break.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams do their scoring after the break, making two or more second-half goals likely.
- Sandecja's home second halves average 1.83 goals in total.
- Zawisza's away second halves average 2.5 goals in total.
- Zawisza's 3-3 draw produced four second-half goals.
- Both sides score more after the break than before it.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
With both first-half scoring rates below one, at least one side usually fails to score early.
- Neither side averages a full first-half goal in the relevant split.
- Zawisza had goalless first halves against both Górnik and Znicz.
- Sandecja concede 0.5 first-half goals per home game.
- Sandecja's 4-2 home win saw them lead 2-0 at the break.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance85%

League Table

II Liga - East 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	11	4	4	3	15-12	16	DLDWL
8	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	11	4	4	3	17-14	16	LLDDD

Recent Form

Sandecja Nowy Sacz

D1-1Rekord Bielsko-BiałaOct 9II

L1-3Lechia Zielona GóraOct 3II

D0-0Tychy 71Sep 20II

W4-2Śląsk Wrocław IISep 13II

L1-2Podhale Nowy TargSep 5II

L2-3Polonia ŚrodaSep 1CUP

W3-0Resovia RzeszówAug 28II

D1-1Górnik ŁęcznaAug 21II

W1-0Świt SkolwinAug 15II

L0-3Avia ŚwidnikAug 9II

W3-0Rekord Bielsko-BiałaAug 5CUP

W3-0Chojniczanka ChojniceAug 2II

D0-0Hutnik KrakówJul 25II

D0-0Tatran PrešovJul 17FRI

W4-1HumennéJul 17FRI

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

L0-1Znicz PruszkówOct 11II

L1-2Olimpia GrudziądzOct 4II

D0-0Górnik ŁęcznaSep 18II

D1-1Hutnik KrakówSep 12II

D3-3Stal Stalowa WolaSep 4II

W4-1Legia Warszawa IIAug 29II

W4-1Avia ŚwidnikAug 22II

W2-1Lechia Zielona GóraAug 16II

W1-0Resovia RzeszówAug 8II

L0-3Rekord Bielsko-BiałaAug 2II

D1-1Sokół KleczewJul 25II

L2-3Polonia WarszawaJul 18FRI

W2-1ŁKS Łódź IIJul 11FRI

W1-0Polonia ŚrodaJul 8FRI

W2-1Legia Warszawa IIJul 4FRI

Squad & Injuries

Sandecja Nowy Sacz

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders13

Defenders5

Goalkeeper2

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

23 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Zawisza Bydgoszcz

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Yes

Over 2.5

Draw

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals7 of 8 landed

League Table

Recent Form

Sandecja Nowy Sacz

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

Squad & Injuries

Sandecja Nowy Sacz

Zawisza Bydgoszcz