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Predictions graded

SalPa Salo3OLS Oulu2

HT 1–2Sun 18 Oct 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Oct 2026, 15:46 · Europe/Bucharest

SalPa need a win on the last day to keep their promotion play-off hopes alive, while OLS arrive with nothing left to play for in the table.

SalPa's home record makes them the likelier winner, but OLS have drawn six of 13 away games and the 1.8 on SalPa asks more than the form justifies. The only price that offers anything is no goals before half-time at 4.75, which cuts against both sides' first-half scoring.

Context

The last round makes Sunday the fixture that defines SalPa's season: the club can still reach the Ykkösliiga play-off, but only by beating OLS while RoPS fail to hold their position in Tampere. Because a draw is probably enough for RoPS, SalPa's requirement is effectively a win rather than a result, which rules out settling for a point. That shapes how the home side has to set up — committing full-backs and midfielders forward — and it sets what a draw would mean for both benches. The competition's own framing of RoPS's requirement is a probabilistic one rather than a published tie-break rule, so the exact arithmetic is not pinned down.
- The final Ykkönen round on 18 October decides which of SalPa or RoPS advances to the Ykkösliiga play-off.
- A draw is probably enough for RoPS to secure the play-off place.
- Tampere United have won the Ykkönen title and KPV and KuPS Akatemia are already relegated.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 15:45 · Europe/Bucharest
OLS's interest in the table ended with the penultimate round: four clubs were chasing second place on 8 October, and by the last round the play-off place was framed as a two-club contest between SalPa and RoPS. That leaves the visitors playing for position rather than promotion while their hosts play for a route into the Ykkösliiga play-off. The practical question it raises is selection, since a club with nothing to gain in the table can rest regulars or hand final-round minutes to younger players. Nothing about OLS's intended line-up has surfaced, so the stakes are documented while the team selection is not.
- On 8 October OLS were named with RoPS, SalPa and PKKU as the clubs contesting second place and the play-off place.
- OLS lost 0-1 at home to Tampere United on 10 October.
- Going into the last round, the play-off place was described as being decided between SalPa and RoPS only.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 15:45 · Europe/BucharestYkkönen results and tablewww.suomifutis.com · 10 Oct 2026
Voca's weekends have been split between the club and futsal, and the local paper recorded him playing futsal in Loimaa on the same afternoon SalPa won 4-0 at PKKU. For a decider SalPa have to win, an attacking option who can be pulled away on a given weekend narrows the rotation available to the coach. It also means SalPa's squad list for Sunday cannot be read straight off the season's earlier selections. The report covers that one round only, so it documents a competing commitment rather than confirming he misses this match.
- Gezim Voca played futsal league in Loimaa instead of SalPa's Ykkönen match on 10 October.
- SalPa won that match 4-0 away at PKKU.
- G. Voca started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 15:45 · Europe/Bucharest
The June result shows how badly this fixture can go for SalPa, but it came in Oulu and OLS's away form since has been far less productive: three wins in 13 away league games. SalPa's own home record, eight wins in 13, is why the return in Salo looks different.
- Ykkönen, 6 June 2026: OLS 5-0 SalPa, played in Oulu.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.25fair 1.41

BetBugs 71% · Market 80%

−9.0ppshort

Both teams concede steadily and SalPa's home games have been consistently high-scoring.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.33fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 75.2%

−5.2ppshort

Neither side has kept a clean sheet in its tracked home or away games, and both score regularly.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

SalPa Salo

1.80fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 55.6%

−3.6ppshort

SalPa have the stronger home record and the greater need, while OLS have won once in seven tracked away matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
SalPa have the stronger home record and the greater need, while OLS have won once in seven tracked away matches.
- SalPa are third with 45 points and a home league record of 8 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, 37 goals scored in 13 home games.
- OLS are fifth with 41 points and an away league record of 3 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses.
- SalPa won the August meeting 4-1 at home; OLS won 5-0 in Oulu in June.
- SalPa need a win for the play-off place; OLS can no longer reach it.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSalPa SaloEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
SalPa's home first-half scoring is the highest figure in these splits, giving them a narrow lead at the break.
- SalPa average 1.29 first-half goals at home and 1.00 against in seven games.
- OLS average 0.86 first-half goals away and 1.00 against.
- SalPa led 2-1 at half-time in the August meeting and scored four first-half goals against JJK.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSalPa SaloEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
SalPa are clearly the stronger second-half side in these splits while OLS fade after the break.
- SalPa average 1.40 second-half goals overall and 1.29 at home.
- OLS average 0.67 second-half goals overall and 0.57 away.
- SalPa scored four second-half goals in the 4-0 win at PKKU.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSalPa SaloEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
SalPa have the stronger home record and the greater need, while OLS have won once in seven tracked away matches. OLS have drawn nearly half their away games, which keeps a share of the points realistic even allowing for SalPa's stronger home form.
- SalPa are third with 45 points and a home league record of 8 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, 37 goals scored in 13 home games.
- OLS are fifth with 41 points and an away league record of 3 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses.
- SalPa have drawn 6 of 26 league matches, including 2 of 13 at home.
- OLS have drawn 8 of 26, with 6 draws in 13 away games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSalPa Salo or DrawEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
SalPa's home first-half scoring is the highest figure in these splits, giving them a narrow lead at the break. First halves are usually tighter than the second, and neither side's splits show a decisive opening-period control.
- SalPa average 1.29 first-half goals at home and 1.00 against in seven games.
- OLS average 0.86 first-half goals away and 1.00 against.
- SalPa's tracked home first halves produced 2.29 goals in total.
- OLS's tracked away first halves produced 1.86 goals in total.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostSalPa Salo or DrawEstimated chance73%

Goals7 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams concede steadily and SalPa's home games have been consistently high-scoring.
- SalPa's seven tracked home matches average 4.57 total goals (2.57 for, 2.00 against).
- OLS away matches average 3.57 total goals (1.43 for, 2.14 against).
- All six of SalPa's most recent matches produced at least four goals, including the 4-1 win over OLS.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Neither side has kept a clean sheet in its tracked home or away games, and both score regularly.
- Both teams scored in 5 of SalPa's 7 tracked home matches.
- Both teams scored in 6 of OLS's 7 tracked away matches.
- SalPa kept no clean sheet in seven home games; OLS kept none in seven away games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
SalPa's home scoring rate and OLS's away concession rate both point to two or more home goals.
- SalPa average 2.57 goals in seven tracked home matches.
- SalPa scored at least three in five of their last six matches.
- OLS concede 2.14 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSalPa Salo over 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
OLS have usually been held to one goal or none on the road.
- OLS failed to reach two goals in 5 of their 7 tracked away matches.
- OLS scored once in each of their last two away matches.
- OLS were shut out 0-1 in their most recent match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostOLS Oulu under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
SalPa have conceded in every tracked home game and OLS almost always find a goal.
- SalPa conceded in all seven of their tracked home matches.
- OLS scored in 12 of 15 tracked matches.
- Both teams scored in 6 of OLS's 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonOLS Oulu to scoreEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
SalPa conceding at least once is the strong pattern in their home games.
- No SalPa home clean sheet in seven tracked home games.
- SalPa conceded 2.00 goals per home match.
- OLS scored in 6 of 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance91%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' tracked first-half totals point to at least one goal before the break.
- SalPa's seven tracked home matches average 2.29 first-half goals in total.
- OLS away matches average 1.86 first-half goals in total.
- SalPa conceded 1.00 first-half goals per home match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
One of the two sides falling short before half-time is the more usual outcome in these splits.
- OLS average 0.86 first-half goals away from home.
- SalPa were level 0-0 at half-time at PKKU last time out.
- SalPa's home first halves average 2.29 goals in total against 1.86 for OLS away.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half totals sit well above one and a half goals per game.
- SalPa's home matches average 2.29 second-half goals in total.
- OLS away matches average 1.71 second-half goals in total.
- SalPa's last six matches produced 20 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 2W

L4-1SalPavOLSAug 22, 2026YKK

L5-0OLSvSalPaJun 6, 2026YKK

5 goals/game avg

League Table

Ykkönen 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	SalPa Salo	26	13	6	7	56-45	45	WLWWW
5	OLS Oulu	26	11	8	7	50-38	41	LWWDW

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form

SalPa Salo

W4-0PKKUOct 10YKK

L1-3RopsSep 26YKK

W6-4Tampere UnitedSep 19YKK

W4-3JJKSep 12YKK

W3-1KuPS AkatemiaAug 29YKK

W4-1OLSAug 22YKK

L0-2FC jazzAug 15YKK

D1-1TPVAug 11YKK

W2-1JJKAug 5YKK

L0-3KPV-jAug 1YKK

L0-1PKKUJul 25YKK

W2-1Inter Turku IIJul 18YKK

W1-0Tampere UnitedJul 10YKK

D2-2VJSJul 4YKK

D2-2RopsJun 27YKK

OLS Oulu

L0-1Tampere UnitedOct 10YKK

W3-0PKKUSep 26YKK

W3-1JJKSep 19YKK

D1-1RopsSep 12YKK

W2-1Tampere UnitedAug 29YKK

L1-4SalPaAug 22YKK

D3-3RopsAug 15YKK

D1-1FC jazzAug 9YKK

W4-2TPVAug 5YKK

W2-1KPV-jJul 26YKK

D1-1PKKUJul 18YKK

L3-4VJSJul 11YKK

L1-3Inter Turku IIJul 4YKK

D2-2KuPS AkatemiaJun 28YKK

L0-3Tampere UnitedJun 11YKK

Squad & Injuries

SalPa Salo

28 available

Attackers8

Midfielders6

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

OLS Oulu

33 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders13

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

SalPa Salo or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

SalPa Salo

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals7 of 9 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

SalPa Salo

OLS Oulu

Squad & Injuries

SalPa Salo

OLS Oulu