YkkönenFull time

Predictions graded

SalPa Salo2VJS Vantaa2

HT 2–1Sat 4 Jul 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–192%

Edges6–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Jul 2026, 15:25 · Europe/Bucharest

SalPa's home goal-scoring is the standout angle: they've hit over 1.5 team goals in five of six home matches, and the 1.75 odds imply just a 57% chance against our 80% estimate—a 22.9-point value edge.

Expect goals, with over 2.5 total goals also offering a solid edge, but steer clear of the match-winner market due to draw risk.

Context

SalPa scored 4, 4, 6, 2, and 2 goals in their last five home matches.
- They have netted 19 goals in 6 home games this season, with only one blank.
- VJS have conceded in 4 of 5 away games, including 3 goals at TPV and 5 at Honka.
VJS's official site confirms this is their first Ykkönen season under head coach Petri Hyrkkänen.
- They have won only once away (4-0 at Tampere United) and lost twice, with two draws.
- The squad was strengthened in March with retained attacker Jean-Claude Mabinda and new arrival Asaad Babiker.
The top six after the regular season enter the Promotion Round, the bottom six the Relegation Round, with points carried over.
- SalPa are currently mid-table and need points to stay in contention for the top half.
- VJS are also in the middle of the pack and cannot afford to drop points if they want to avoid the relegation group.
SalPa Jalkapallo Oy announced the share issue extension on their official site, with funds intended to support this season's sporting goals.
- The timing is very fresh, closing on 30 June 2026, which could indicate a positive off-field atmosphere.
- There is no direct evidence this impacts on-pitch performance, but it shows club ambition.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
SalPa's strong home form contrasts with VJS's mediocre away record, giving the hosts a moderate edge.
- SalPa home record: 4W-1D-1L, 19 goals scored.
- VJS away record: 1W-2D-2L, 8 goals scored.
- SalPa's last 5 home form: W-W-W-L-W.
- VJS's last 5 away form: D-D-L-W-L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSalPa SaloEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
SalPa's strong home resilience and VJS's poor away win rate make a home win or draw highly probable.
- SalPa home: only 1 loss in 6 games.
- VJS away: only 1 win in 5 games.
- H2H this season ended in a draw.
- SalPa's home points per game: 2.17.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSalPa Salo or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
SalPa's tendency to start strong at home gives them a slight edge to lead at the break.
- SalPa led at halftime in 33% of matches overall, but in 4 of 6 home games.
- VJS trailed at halftime in 27% of matches, but in 2 of 5 away games.
- SalPa's last 5 home first halves: W-W-W-L-W.
- VJS's last 5 away first halves: W-D-L-W-L.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSalPa SaloEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
SalPa's ability to lead at halftime and hold on at home is evident, but the low frequency keeps confidence low.
- SalPa led at halftime and won in 3 of 6 home games.
- VJS trailed at halftime and lost in 1 of 5 away games.
- SalPa's last 5 home: 3 HT/FT wins.
- VJS's last 5 away: 1 HT/FT loss.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableSalPa Salo / SalPa SaloEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
SalPa has shown they can dominate both halves at home, but it's not a frequent occurrence.
- SalPa won both halves in 2 of 6 home games.
- VJS lost both halves in 1 of 5 away games.
- SalPa's last 5 home: won both halves twice.
- VJS's last 5 away: lost both halves once.
BetBugs · Win Both Halvesnot gradableSalPa SaloEstimated chance20%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
SalPa's strong first-half home record makes it very likely they will at least draw at halftime.
- SalPa home first halves: 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss.
- VJS away first halves: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses.
- SalPa's last 5 home first halves: W-W-W-L-W.
- VJS's last 5 away first halves: W-D-L-W-L.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSalPa Salo or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals8 of 8 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring trends, especially SalPa at home, making Over 2.5 goals highly likely.
- SalPa home matches average 4.67 total goals (19 scored, 9 conceded in 6 games).
- VJS away matches average 3.0 total goals (8 scored, 7 conceded in 5 games).
- SalPa's last 5 home games: 4-3, 4-2, 6-0, 2-3, 2-0 (all over 2.5 except one).
- VJS's last 5 away games: 1-1, 2-2, 1-5, 4-0, 0-1 (3 of 5 over 2.5).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently find the net in their respective home/away splits, and the recent H2H supports a both-teams-score outcome.
- SalPa scored in 5 of 6 home games, conceded in 4 of 6.
- VJS scored in 4 of 5 away games, conceded in 4 of 5.
- H2H this season: 1-1 draw.
- SalPa's last 5 home: both teams scored in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
SalPa's aggressive first-half scoring at home, combined with VJS's occasional early goals, pushes the first-half total over 1.5.
- SalPa averages 1.1 first-half goals at home, concedes 0.7.
- VJS averages 0.9 first-half goals away, concedes 0.5.
- SalPa's last 5 home first halves: 3, 3, 4, 0, 2 goals scored.
- VJS's last 5 away first halves: 1, 2, 0, 1, 0 goals scored.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more after halftime, especially SalPa at home, making over 1.5 second-half goals likely.
- SalPa home matches average 2.33 second-half goals (total goals minus first-half).
- VJS away matches average 1.6 second-half goals.
- SalPa's last 5 home second halves: 1, 1, 2, 3, 2 goals.
- VJS's last 5 away second halves: 0, 0, 1, 3, 1 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While both teams can score early, the combined probability of both scoring in the first half is moderate at best.
- SalPa home first halves: scored in 5 of 6, conceded in 3 of 6.
- VJS away first halves: scored in 3 of 5, conceded in 2 of 5.
- SalPa's last 5 home first halves: both scored in 2 of 5.
- VJS's last 5 away first halves: both scored in 1 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonYesEstimated chance35%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
SalPa's defensive record at home is leaky, and VJS consistently finds the net away, making a home clean sheet unlikely.
- SalPa kept a clean sheet in only 2 of 6 home games.
- VJS failed to score in only 1 of 5 away games.
- SalPa conceded in 4 of last 5 home games.
- VJS scored in 4 of last 5 away games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonVJS Vantaa to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
VJS's away defense is vulnerable, and SalPa's home attack is potent, making an away clean sheet highly improbable.
- VJS kept a clean sheet in only 1 of 5 away games.
- SalPa scored in 5 of 6 home games, averaging 3.17 goals.
- VJS conceded in 4 of last 5 away games.
- SalPa scored in 5 of last 5 home games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSalPa Salo to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
SalPa's prolific home scoring makes over 1.5 team goals a very safe bet.
- SalPa scored at least 2 goals in 5 of 6 home games.
- SalPa's home goals per game: 3.17.
- SalPa's last 5 home: scored 4, 4, 6, 2, 2.
- VJS conceded 2+ in 3 of 5 away games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSalPa Salo over 1.5Estimated chance80%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

D1-1VJSvSalPaApr 18, 2026YKK

W0-2VJSvSalPaAug 20, 2022KAK

L2-1SalPavVJSMay 29, 2022KAK

W0-1VJSvSalPaOct 16, 2021KAK

W1-2SalPavVJSJun 30, 2021KAK

SalPa Salo: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Ykkönen 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	SalPa Salo Promotion - Ykkonen (Championship Group)	12	5	4	3	26-22	19	DWLWW
7	VJS Vantaa Ykkonen (Relegation Group)	11	4	4	3	19-13	16	WLDDW

3pt gap between teamsVJS Vantaa in relegation zone

Recent Form

SalPa Salo

D2-2RopsJun 27YKK

W4-3KuPS AkatemiaJun 12YKK

L0-5OLSJun 6YKK

W2-1FC jazzMay 28YKK

W4-2TPVMay 23YKK

D2-2JJKMay 16YKK

W6-0KPV-jMay 9YKK

L0-2PKKUMay 2YKK

L2-3Inter Turku IIApr 24YKK

D1-1VJSApr 18YKK

W4-0Fish UnitedApr 14SUO

W2-0Tampere UnitedApr 11YKK

D1-1RopsApr 4YKK

W2-1KäPaOct 18YKK

W1-0Turku PSOct 4YKK

VJS Vantaa

W2-1TPVJun 29YKK

L0-2RopsJun 13YKK

D1-1FC jazzJun 6YKK

D2-2JJKJun 2YKK

L1-5HonkaMay 26SUO

W5-0KPV-jMay 23YKK

W5-3FF JaroMay 13SUO

W3-2Inter Turku IIMay 9YKK

D0-0KuPS AkatemiaMay 2YKK

W4-0Tampere UnitedApr 24YKK

D1-1SalPaApr 18YKK

W7-0JäPS / AkatemiaApr 14SUO

L0-1OLSApr 11YKK

L1-3TPVApr 4YKK

W2-0JäPSMar 24FRI

Squad & Injuries

SalPa Salo

22 available

Attackers8

Midfielders4

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

VJS Vantaa

31 available

Attackers12

Midfielders8

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Over 1.5

SalPa Salo or Draw

SalPa Salo or Draw

Result3 of 4 landed

Goals8 of 8 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 4.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

SalPa Salo

VJS Vantaa

Squad & Injuries

SalPa Salo

VJS Vantaa