Liverpool Montevideo11 – 0Penarol Montevideo0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10

The read

Both teams produce few first-half goals, making a level half-time score the clear favourite.

• Liverpool average 0.29 first-half goals at home
• Peñarol average 0.43 first-half away goals
• Liverpool concede 0.20 first-half goals overall
• Peñarol concede 0.47 first-half goals overall

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33

The read

Liverpool's home defence has been very hard to break down, keeping this a genuine three-way contest. Peñarol's stronger season and recent derby record give them the largest single share.

• Liverpool are 5W 1D 1L at home with only 2 goals conceded in 7
• Liverpool kept 5 clean sheets in 7 home matches
• Peñarol top the table on 63 points from 32 matches
• Peñarol are unbeaten away in the sample (3W 4D 0L)

BetBugs · Double ChancewonLiverpool Montevideo or Penarol MontevideoEstimated chance72%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams produce few first-half goals, making a level half-time score the clear favourite. Peñarol carry more first-half scoring threat than Liverpool, giving them a modest share.

• Liverpool average 0.29 first-half goals at home
• Peñarol average 0.43 first-half away goals
• Peñarol average 0.73 first-half goals overall
• Peñarol average 0.43 first-half goals away

BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Penarol MontevideoEstimated chance86%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Both teams defend well and Peñarol's recent matches have been tight, slightly favouring under 2.5.

• Liverpool concede 0.67 goals per match
• Peñarol concede 0.73 goals per match
• Peñarol's last six matches averaged 2.0 total goals
• Liverpool kept 8 clean sheets in 15

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Liverpool's home clean-sheet record and Peñarol's away defence make one blank plausible.

• Liverpool kept 8 clean sheets in 15
• Liverpool kept 5 clean sheets in 7 home matches
• Peñarol kept 3 clean sheets in 7 away matches
• Peñarol failed to score in only 2 of 15

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Liverpool generally find the net at home, so Peñarol keeping a blank is the smaller outcome.

• Liverpool scored in 5 of 7 home matches
• Liverpool average 1.71 home goals
• Peñarol kept clean sheets in 3 of 7 away matches
• Peñarol conceded 0.71 goals per away match

BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLiverpool Montevideo to scoreEstimated chance70%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Peñarol's tight away second halves make fewer than two goals after the break slightly more likely.

• Peñarol concede 0.14 second-half goals away
• Peñarol average 1.14 second-half goals away
• Liverpool's recent matches often finished with few late goals
• Liverpool concede 0.43 second-half goals at home

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Three of the four tracked matches stayed under 28 shots, favouring the lower total.

• Liverpool average 9.5 shots with 6.5 against
• Penarol's latest match produced 32 total shots
• Liverpool's last two matches had 15 and 17 total shots
• Peñarol's other tracked match had 18 total shots

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Three of the four tracked matches stayed under twelve on-target shots.

• Liverpool average 6 shots on target with 2.5 against
• Peñarol average 5.5 shots on target with 4.5 against
• Liverpool's last two matches had 9 and 8 on target in total
• Peñarol's other tracked match had 8 on target in total