Deportivo Mixco3Coban Imperial1

HT 1–0Sun 18 Oct 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions14–193%

Edges4–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 05:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Mixco sit seventh and need a home win to climb back into the top six, against a Cobán side with three straight home wins but no away victory this Apertura.

Mixco are the likelier winners at a ground where they are unbeaten in eight league games, though Allen Yanes's suspension and a third match in eight days narrow the gap. The home win at 1.62, over 2.5 goals at 1.62 and both teams to score at 1.67 all ask for more than the record justifies; no quoted price is worthwhile.

Context

Yanes is a Guatemala international centre-back who has been part of Mixco's preferred pairing through a season split between league and continental football. The red card came from a foul in his own penalty area, and a Cobán side that has scored at least twice in each of its last three home wins will look to force exactly that kind of duel. Mixco now rebuild the middle of the defence in front of a goalkeeper who saved a penalty in the same passage of play. The mitigating detail is that Mixco defended a man down for more than 50 minutes at Marquense without conceding from open play, so the reshuffle may cost less than a first-choice loss usually implies.
- Sent off in the 38th minute of the 1-1 draw at Marquense on 15 October after conceding a penalty.
- Mixco played the remaining 52 minutes with ten men and conceded the equaliser in the 78th.
- Yanes featured in four matches for Guatemala during the October international window.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 05:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Six teams advance from the Apertura's first phase, and Mixco were sixth on 20 points before drawing at Marquense; that point left them seventh, level on points with the team above and five clear of Cobán. A home fixture against a lower-placed side is the most direct route back into the cut, which argues for a front-foot approach and raises the cost of the defensive change forced by Yanes's ban. It also means the visitors can play for a point without much damage. The counterweight is that both of Mixco's draws came away from home, where they have struggled, while at this ground they have won five of six league games.
- Mixco drew 1-1 at Marquense on 15 October, four days after a 3-3 draw at Suchitepéquez.
- Mixco were sixth on 20 points before the Marquense game; the draw left them seventh and outside the qualifying places.
- Cobán Imperial sit ninth on 16 points, five fewer than Mixco.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 05:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Cobán's three consecutive home wins, the last a 2-1 over previously unbeaten Municipal, lifted them from eleventh to ninth on 16 points and made them one of only two teams to win at home in round 14. All of it happened at the José Ángel Rossi; on the road this Apertura they have three draws, four defeats and four goals in their last four away games. That split is why their recent scoring form travels with a caveat into a ground where Mixco have won five of six league games. The counterweight is that two of those away games were narrow 1-1 and 1-2 results at San Pedro and Antigua, so Cobán have been competitive outside Cobán without winning.
- Cobán Imperial beat Municipal 2-1 at the Estadio José Ángel Rossi on 15 October after leading at half-time.
- It was their third consecutive home win; the club moved from eleventh to ninth on 16 points.
- The result ended an eight-match unbeaten run for Municipal.
- Cobán's seven away league games this Apertura have produced three draws and four defeats.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 05:10 · Europe/Bucharest
That unbeaten home run is the core of Mixco's case, and the 3-1 over Antigua GFC on 27 September and 3-2 over Aurora on 13 September show they can score heavily at this ground. Only three of the eight home games ended in a clean sheet, so the wins have generally come with a goal conceded, which keeps Cobán's chances of finding the net alive. The sample covers eight matches between 1 August and 27 September 2026, a short window rather than a long-established pattern.
- Mixco's home league record in the window: 7 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats in 8 matches (1 August to 27 September 2026).
- 3-1 home win over Antigua GFC on 27 September 2026.
- 3-2 home win over Aurora on 13 September 2026.
- 3 clean sheets across those 8 home matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 80%

−7.0ppshort

Mixco regularly score before the break at home, making at least one first-half goal the likely result.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

−4.9ppshort

Mixco concede regularly and Cobán have scored in six straight, so both finding the net is the more likely single outcome.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Deportivo Mixco

1.62fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 61.7%

−8.7ppshort

Mixco's unbeaten home run against a side yet to win away this Apertura makes them the clearer favourite, but the gap is not wide.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 61.7%

−9.7ppshort

Mixco's home games have been high-scoring and Cobán have found the net in six straight, so three goals is a reasonable outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Mixco's unbeaten home run against a side yet to win away this Apertura makes them the clearer favourite, but the gap is not wide.
- Mixco are 7 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats in 8 home league matches, averaging 2.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Cobán Imperial have no away win in 8 league away matches (3 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 0.75 per game.
- The last five meetings produced three home wins and two draws, with no away victory.
- Mixco sit seventh on 20 points, five clear of Cobán in ninth.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDeportivo MixcoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mixco start home games strongly and Cobán barely score before the break on the road.
- Mixco scored 1.6 first-half goals and conceded 0.1 per home game.
- Cobán scored 0.25 first-half goals and conceded 0.75 per away game.
- Mixco led at half-time in several home wins, including 3-1 over Aurora at 2-0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDeportivo MixcoEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mixco still hold the edge after the break, but their home second halves have been far less dominant than their first.
- Mixco scored 0.9 second-half goals and conceded 0.75 per home game.
- Cobán scored 0.5 and conceded 0.9 second-half goals per away game.
- Mixco's home second halves have been closer than their first halves.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDeportivo MixcoEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mixco's unbeaten home run against a side yet to win away this Apertura makes them the clearer favourite, but the gap is not wide. Cobán have repeatedly taken a point on the road and two of the last five meetings were level, so a share of the points stays plausible.
- Mixco are 7 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats in 8 home league matches, averaging 2.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Cobán Imperial have no away win in 8 league away matches (3 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 0.75 per game.
- Cobán have drawn 3 of 8 away league matches and Mixco 3 of 15 overall.
- Two of the last five meetings finished level.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDeportivo Mixco or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mixco start home games strongly and Cobán barely score before the break on the road. Cobán's first halves on the road are quiet, which keeps a level scoreline at the break in play.
- Mixco scored 1.6 first-half goals and conceded 0.1 per home game.
- Cobán scored 0.25 first-half goals and conceded 0.75 per away game.
- Cobán's away first halves average just 1.0 goal in total.
- Cobán scored 0.4 first-half goals per game across 15 matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDeportivo Mixco or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals9 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Mixco's home games have been high-scoring and Cobán have found the net in six straight, so three goals is a reasonable outcome.
- Mixco home matches average 3.4 goals combined (2.5 for, 0.9 against).
- Mixco's 15 league games average 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded.
- Cobán away matches average 2.4 goals combined.
- Cobán have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Mixco concede regularly and Cobán have scored in six straight, so both finding the net is the more likely single outcome.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Mixco's 8 home games and 5 of Cobán's 8 away games.
- Mixco conceded in 12 of 15 league matches.
- Cobán scored in each of their last 6 league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mixco have scored at least twice in most home games and Cobán concede regularly on the road.
- Mixco scored in all 8 home league games, averaging 2.5.
- Mixco scored 3 goals in three of their last four home league games.
- Cobán conceded 1.6 goals per away game.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonDeportivo Mixco over 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Away from home Cobán rarely reach two goals, and Mixco's home defence has been the stronger half of their game.
- Cobán scored 5 goals in 8 away league matches (0.75 per game).
- Mixco conceded 5 goals in 8 home league games.
- Cobán were shut out in 3 away matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonCoban Imperial under 1.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mixco have conceded in most of their matches and Cobán have been scoring consistently, so a clean sheet is the less likely side.
- Mixco kept clean sheets in only 3 of 15 league games overall.
- Cobán scored in 5 of 8 away league matches.
- Cobán scored in each of their last 6 league games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCoban Imperial to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mixco have found the net in every home match and Cobán concede regularly on their travels.
- Mixco scored in all 8 home league games at 2.5 per game.
- Cobán kept 1 clean sheet in 8 away league matches.
- Cobán conceded 1.6 per away game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDeportivo Mixco to scoreEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Mixco's home wins came with a goal conceded, and Cobán have been scoring steadily.
- Mixco conceded in 5 of their 8 home league games.
- Cobán scored in 5 of 8 away matches.
- Mixco won 7 home games but only 3 came with a clean sheet.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Mixco regularly score before the break at home, making at least one first-half goal the likely result.
- Mixco's home first halves average 1.75 goals combined.
- Cobán's away first halves average 1.0 goals combined.
- Mixco scored at least one first-half goal in 6 of 8 home league games.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cobán's first-half away scoring is so limited that both teams scoring before the break is unlikely.
- Mixco conceded only 1 first-half goal in 8 home league games.
- Cobán scored 0.25 first-half goals per away game.
- Cobán conceded 0.75 first-half goals per away game.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cobán's low away scoring keeps the second-half total under two goals more often than not.
- Mixco conceded 0.75 and scored 0.9 second-half goals per home game.
- Cobán scored 0.5 second-half goals per away game.
- Mixco's 2-0 home win over Malacateco had a goalless second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance53%