CD Suchitepequez1Deportivo Mixco0

Sat 10 Oct 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

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Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Oct 2026, 06:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Bottom-of-the-table Suchitepéquez, with one win in 15, host a Mixco side that has lost all seven away matches and averages 0.43 goals on the road.

The home side is the likelier winner, though not by much. The one quoted price — over 0.5 first-half goals at 1.3 — does not offer value, and no other price here is worth taking.

Context

The coaching change is the most concrete new variable on the home side: Zalazar was appointed in late September with the club rooted to the bottom of the Apertura table, and he has had only a few weeks to settle a starting XI and a way of playing. His history as a title-winning forward at the club shapes how the appointment was received in Mazatenango, which is a story of identification rather than a demonstrated performance edge. New managers typically produce small, mixed samples early on, so the direction of the side matters more than the label.
- CSD Suchitepéquez named Omar Zalazar as its new head coach on 24 September 2026, replacing Manuel Castañeda.
- Zalazar played for Suchitepéquez and won a Liga Nacional title with the club.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 06:12 · Europe/Bucharest
This is the only head-to-head reference of the season, and it was settled by a substitute: Martínez's header and the late penalty arrived after he entered the game. Since then Suchitepéquez have changed coach and stayed at the foot of the table, while Mixco's own results have swung between convincing wins and heavy defeats, so the August scoreline captures how quickly that match turned rather than a stable gap between the sides. The brace also came in a substitute appearance, so it does not by itself establish Martínez as a guaranteed starter.
- Deportivo Mixco beat Suchitepéquez 2-0 at the Estadio Santo Domingo de Guzmán on 1 August 2026 in the Apertura opener.
- Nicolás Martínez came off the bench and scored both goals, in the 57th and 88th minutes, the second from a penalty awarded after an FVS review.
- N. Martinez started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 06:12 · Europe/BucharestMixco 2-0 Suchitepéquez: doblete de Nicolás Martínezfutbolchapinenvivo.com · 1 Aug 2026
Bolaños was called up after injuries and suspensions forced Guatemala to widen their squad, and he is one of Mixco's scorers this season. He was with the national team in Suriname in the week of this fixture, so his club preparation is compressed relative to teammates who stayed in Guatemala. The debut itself was late and brief, which caps what it says about his current form; the practical question is workload rather than availability.
- José Ramón Bolaños received his first Guatemala call-up on 29 September 2026.
- The Deportivo Mixco forward debuted as a late substitute against Suriname in Paramaribo on 2 October 2026.
- J. Bolanos started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- N. Martinez started in the same position in 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when J. Bolanos did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 06:12 · Europe/Bucharest
The Carlos Salazar Hijo is where Suchitepéquez train and play, and it has already produced a two-hour delay this Apertura because of rain followed by a power fault. An evening kick-off in a coastal city is exposed to both, and either can affect the playing surface or push the start of the match back. No forecast problem has been established for 10 October, so the value here is knowing the venue has a recent, specific failure mode rather than a confirmed issue for this game.
- The Suchitepéquez-Xelajú match of 20 September 2026 kicked off more than two hours late at the Estadio Carlos Salazar Hijo.
- The first delay was caused by intense rain in Mazatenango and the second by electrical problems at the stadium.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 06:12 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half Goalsnot gradableUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

−11.9ppshort

First-half goals have appeared in most recent matches for both teams.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mixco have lost every away match in the window while Suchitepéquez get their better results at home, so the home side takes the largest single share.
- Suchitepéquez home split: 1W-3D-2L in 6 matches, 1.33 scored and 1.5 conceded per game
- Mixco away split: 0W-0D-7L, 0.43 scored and 2.43 conceded per game
- Suchitepéquez are bottom of the Apertura table with 1 win in 15 tracked matches
- Mixco won the 1 August meeting 2-0
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCD SuchitepequezEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Half-time parity is the most common state for two low-scoring sides, especially with Mixco blanked early on the road.
- Mixco away first half: 0 scored, 1.14 conceded per game
- Suchitepéquez home first half: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game
- Mixco failed to score in the first half of recent away matches at San Pedro and Malacateco
- Suchitepéquez were level at half-time in their most recent home match
BetBugs · First Half Winnernot gradableDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither side scores much after the break, so a level second half is the most likely single result.
- Suchitepéquez home second half: 0.4 scored, 0.4 conceded per game
- Mixco's second-half away total averages 1.72 goals per match
- Their most recent home match was 0-0 in the second half
- Suchitepéquez's last home match against Guastatoya was 1-0 after the break
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mixco have not scored a first-half away goal in the window, which gives Suchitepéquez the better half-time chance. Half-time parity is the most common state for two low-scoring sides, especially with Mixco blanked early on the road.
- Suchitepéquez home first half: 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded per game (5 matches)
- Mixco away first half: 0 scored and 1.14 conceded per game (7 matches)
- Mixco away first half: 0 scored, 1.14 conceded per game
- Suchitepéquez home first half: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First Halfnot gradableCD Suchitepequez or DrawEstimated chance76%

Goals7 of 9 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The away side's very low scoring rate and Suchitepéquez's modest home output point to a lower total.
- Mixco score 0.43 goals per away game
- Suchitepéquez score 1.33 and concede 1.5 per home game
- Suchitepéquez's two most recent home matches finished 2-2 and 1-1
- Mixco's away split shows 2 goals in 7 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mixco's away scoring is so limited that one side is often held out.
- Mixco have scored in 2 of their 7 away matches
- Suchitepéquez were shut out in three of their last six matches
- Mixco kept no clean sheet in 7 away matches
- Suchitepéquez's home scoring average is 1.33 per game
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suchitepéquez's home output is modest enough that one goal or none is the likelier outcome.
- Suchitepéquez score 1.33 goals per home game
- They scored 0, 0, 1 and 2 goals in their last four matches
- Mixco conceded 2.43 per away game
- Suchitepéquez were shut out in three of their last six matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCD Suchitepequez under 1.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mixco's away goal output has been minimal, so one goal or none is the strong expectation.
- Mixco's away split records 2 goals in 7 matches
- Mixco average 0.43 goals per away game
- Mixco have lost all seven away matches
- Suchitepéquez kept 1 clean sheet in 6 home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonDeportivo Mixco under 1.5Estimated chance86%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Suchitepéquez rarely keep a clean sheet at home, so an away goal is more likely than not.
- Suchitepéquez conceded in 5 of 6 home matches
- Suchitepéquez concede 2.07 per game overall
- Mixco scored in 2 of their 7 away matches
- Suchitepéquez kept 1 clean sheet in 6 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDeportivo Mixco to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mixco concede regularly on the road and Suchitepéquez usually score at home.
- Suchitepéquez scored in 5 of 6 home matches
- Mixco conceded 2.43 per away game
- Mixco kept no clean sheet in 7 away matches
- Suchitepéquez scored 2 and 1 in their last two home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCD Suchitepequez to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suchitepéquez rarely win and rarely keep opponents out at home, so the combination is unlikely.
- Suchitepéquez have one win in fifteen matches
- Suchitepéquez kept 1 clean sheet in 6 home matches
- Suchitepéquez conceded in 5 of 6 home matches
- Suchitepéquez scored under one goal per game overall
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
First-half goals have appeared in most recent matches for both teams.
- Five of Suchitepéquez's last six matches had a first-half goal
- Four of Mixco's last six matches had a first-half goal
- Suchitepéquez home first half: 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded per game
- Mixco concede 1.14 first-half goals per away game
BetBugs · 1st Half Goalsnot gradableOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
At least one side being blanked before the break is the clear expectation given Mixco's away first halves.
- Mixco away first half: 0 goals in 7 matches
- Mixco's away first-half conceding average is 1.14
- Suchitepéquez failed to score in the first half of four of their last six matches
- Mixco failed to score in the first half of their last three away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low second-half scoring from both sides makes a quiet half more likely than not.
- Suchitepéquez home second half: 0.4 scored and 0.4 conceded per game
- Mixco score 0.43 second-half goals per away game
- Suchitepéquez's most recent home match was 0-0 after the break
- Mixco's recent away matches produced 1, 1 and 4 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%