Aurora FC Guatemala3Deportivo San Pedro1

HT 0–1Sun 18 Oct 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Oct 2026, 23:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Aurora's home form against San Pedro's blank away record is the pull of this fixture, with the visitors' 2-1 win in August as the counterweight.

Aurora to win is the likeliest result, but 1.95 does not pay enough for it. The one price worth taking is both teams to score – no at 1.8.

Context

Jornada 14 was split across midweek: Aurora won 2-1 at Comunicaciones on Wednesday 14 October, San Pedro drew 1-1 at Suchitepéquez the following night. San Pedro therefore carry one fewer rest day plus the journey from San Marcos province into the capital before an 11:30 local kickoff, while Aurora stay at the Cementos Progreso ground where they played that same midweek game. The gap is most likely to show in the closing half hour of a match between teams a point apart. The qualifier is that San Pedro have not won any of seven away matches this Apertura, so travel-day weakness is neither new nor purely physical.
- San Pedro drew 1-1 away at Suchitepéquez in Jornada 14, Julio Fajardo equalising on 27 minutes after Armando Zamorano's 24th-minute penalty.
- Aurora beat Comunicaciones 2-1 in Jornada 14 on Wednesday 14 October; San Pedro's fixture was played the following night.
- The two clubs meet in Guatemala City at 11:30 local time on Sunday 18 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 23:08 · Europe/Bucharest
San Pedro's 18 points with a +2 goal difference were worth seventh place on 10 October, with Aurora eighth on 15 and -3. Aurora's win at Comunicaciones and San Pedro's draw at Suchitepéquez have since pulled the hosts to within a point, so this fixture exchanges position directly rather than filling a routine round. The Apertura is running two vueltas, and Jornada 14 was only the third round of the second, so both staffs know the opponent and the August result already frames the return. Because five clubs sit within four points, a win lifts either side several places, but the same congestion means the gain can be reversed in the next round.
- After the 10 October round, San Pedro were seventh on 18 points with a +2 goal difference, one place above Aurora on 15 points and -3.
- Marquense, Xelajú and Mixco sat directly above the pair in the same band of the table.
- Aurora won 2-1 at Comunicaciones and San Pedro drew 1-1 at Suchitepéquez in Jornada 14.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 23:08 · Europe/Bucharest
That away return is why the visitors' overall table position flatters them here. They have been shut out in five of seven road games and average 0.29 goals, so Aurora keeping them quiet is the likeliest shape of the afternoon. The counterweight is that San Pedro still drew three of those seven, so a blank does not automatically mean defeat.
- Away split, 2026 Apertura: seven matches from 2 August to 16 October, no wins, three draws, four defeats.
- Two goals scored across those seven away matches, an average of 0.29 per game.
- Failed to score in five of the seven away matches.
Two set-piece-driven goals inside the first half hour put San Pedro 2-0 up in that Jornada 4 meeting, and Aurora's reply came only after 65 minutes. It is the single completed fixture between these clubs in this Apertura, so it is the only direct evidence of how the matchup behaves. What it cannot do is carry forward: selection on both sides has changed across three months and Aurora have won their last two league matches. Treat the August game as a description of San Pedro's willingness to attack early rather than as a repeatable edge in Sunday's fixture.
- Sebastián Colón scored after 15 minutes and Germán Águila converted a penalty on 44 for San Pedro on 16 August.
- Diego Ruiz pulled one back for Aurora on 65 minutes; the match ended 2-1 at the Estadio Municipal de San Pedro.
- The result left San Pedro contesting the top of the Apertura table in the opening month.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 23:08 · Europe/BucharestMatch report, San Pedro 2-1 Auroraguatefutbol.com · 16 Aug 2026Jornada 4 statistics page, San Pedro 2-1 Auroraantorchadeportiva.com · 16 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

−11.4ppshort

Aurora's recent first halves usually contain a goal and the August meeting had first-half goals.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.60fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 62.5%

−6.5ppshort

San Pedro's away matches have been low-scoring, which pulls the total down.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.95
The read
Aurora's home form and San Pedro's lack of away scoring favour the home side.
- Aurora are 5W-1D-2L at home, averaging 1.5 goals for and 1.0 against.
- San Pedro are 0W-3D-4L away, averaging 0.29 goals for and 1.14 against.
- San Pedro have scored two goals in seven away league matches.
- Aurora won 2-1 at Comunicaciones on 14 October; San Pedro drew 1-1 on 15 October.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAurora FC GuatemalaEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.95
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring is low enough for a level half.
- Aurora's home first halves average 1.0 total goal.
- San Pedro's away first halves average 0.57 total goal.
- San Pedro average 0.14 first-half goals away.
- Aurora concede 0.25 first-half goals at home.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Pedro's low away second-half scoring makes a level half more likely.
- Aurora's home second halves average 1.5 total goals.
- San Pedro's away second halves average 0.86 total goal.
- San Pedro average 0.14 second-half goals away.
- Aurora concede 0.75 second-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aurora's home form and San Pedro's lack of away scoring favour the home side. San Pedro's low away scoring and habit of drawing away point to a tight match.
- Aurora are 5W-1D-2L at home, averaging 1.5 goals for and 1.0 against.
- San Pedro are 0W-3D-4L away, averaging 0.29 goals for and 1.14 against.
- Aurora have one draw in eight home matches; San Pedro have three draws in seven away matches.
- San Pedro have scored two goals in seven away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAurora FC Guatemala or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aurora's home first-half scoring and San Pedro's low away first-half output favour Aurora. Both teams' first-half scoring is low enough for a level half.
- Aurora average 0.75 first-half goals at home and concede 0.25.
- San Pedro average 0.14 first-half goals away and concede 0.43.
- Aurora's home first halves average 1.0 total goal.
- San Pedro's away first halves average 0.57 total goal.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostAurora FC Guatemala or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
San Pedro's away matches have been low-scoring, which pulls the total down.
- San Pedro's away matches average 1.43 total goals.
- San Pedro have scored two goals in seven away matches.
- San Pedro failed to score in five of seven away matches.
- Aurora's home matches average 2.5 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
San Pedro's away scoring is so limited that one side being blanked is the more likely outcome.
- San Pedro scored in only two of seven away matches.
- San Pedro failed to score in five of seven away matches.
- San Pedro average 0.29 goals per away match.
- Aurora kept two clean sheets in eight home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Pedro have scored very little across their away matches.
- San Pedro's seven away matches produced two goals in total.
- San Pedro scored in two away matches.
- San Pedro failed to score in five away matches.
- Aurora kept two clean sheets in eight home matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonDeportivo San Pedro under 1.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Pedro have been blanked in most of their away league matches.
- San Pedro failed to score in five of seven away matches.
- San Pedro average 0.29 goals per away match.
- San Pedro scored in only two of seven away matches.
- Aurora kept two clean sheets in eight home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDeportivo San Pedro not to scoreEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Aurora's recent first halves usually contain a goal and the August meeting had first-half goals.
- Aurora's home first halves average 1.0 total goal.
- San Pedro's away first halves average 0.57 total goal.
- The August meeting had two first-half goals.
- Aurora's last six first halves produced goals in five.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Pedro's first-half scoring is very low, especially away.
- San Pedro failed to score before half-time in five of their last six matches.
- San Pedro average 0.14 first-half goals away.
- Aurora concede 0.25 first-half goals at home.
- The August meeting was 2-0 to San Pedro at half-time.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
San Pedro's away second-half scoring is low enough to keep the total down.
- San Pedro's away second halves average 0.86 total goal.
- San Pedro average 0.14 second-half goals away.
- Aurora concede 0.75 second-half goals at home.
- The August meeting had one second-half goal.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance62%